This Year, China'S Garment Export Is Facing A Severe Situation, And The Price Rise Is Gradually Diminishing To Create A Prosperous Situation

Indirect international market dependence may be greater than direct dependence

China in 2012 clothing The export situation is grim. According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2012, China's clothing and clothing accessories exports totaled US $67.515 billion, up 2.57% year on year; The number of exports was 13.336 billion, down 3.60% year on year. Among them, the export of woven clothing was 26.851 billion US dollars, down 4.20% year on year, and the export volume was 3.862 billion pieces, down 6.47% year on year; The export of knitted garments was 35.78 billion US dollars, up 6.14% year on year, with 9.774 billion pieces, down 2.38% year on year. In the first half of 2012, the average unit price of clothing export was 4.14 US dollars/piece, 4.81% higher than that in the same period of 2011, and the growth rate was 16.36 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year. The amount of clothing exports accounted for 57.67% of textile exports, up 0.2 percentage points over the same period in 2011.

　　 Increasing prices to create prosperity

From the perspective of monthly exports, the basic feature of exports in the first half of 2012 is "oscillation". Although the constant fluctuations can not give a clear trend direction, it can be seen that the amplitude of oscillation gradually narrows, and the growth of both amount and quantity approaches the zero line, Whether the "export growth in the Christmas season" and "export rebound at the end of the year" can be achieved in the second half of the year is still in doubt. At the same time, the increase in export prices has released the last energy. In 2011, the situation of creating prosperity through "price rise" is getting farther and farther, and the two lines of quantity and value tend to overlap. Maybe we should have paid more attention to the change trend of "quantity".

The amount growth in emerging markets is much higher than the quantity

The sharp decline in exports to Europe has a very strong effect on the decline of industry exports. From the perspective of China's clothing exports to all continents, only Europe saw a year-on-year decline in both "volume" and "value", down 16.60% and 12.68%, respectively. Compared with 2011, it gave up five points of exports, and exports to Germany, France, Italy and other major European countries declined to varying degrees. The number of exports to Oceania decreased by 8.05% year on year, but the export volume still maintained a positive growth of 4.35%. The "volume" and "value" of exports to Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America are both positive, although the growth rate is unsatisfactory.

The "volume" and "value" of China's exports to Europe and North America's large traditional markets are converging on a year-on-year basis, which means that the price rise is nearing the end, while the amount growth of China's exports to Africa, Latin America, Oceania and other emerging markets is far higher than the volume growth, which shows that there is still something to do in terms of "price" or "export structure".

The export of eastern provinces and cities is stable at a low level

The export of eastern provinces and cities was basically stable, while the export of central and western regions increased and decreased significantly. This can be said to be an inevitable phenomenon in the process of industrial regional structure adjustment. Although the stagnation of export growth in the eastern region, which accounts for 80% of exports, is worrying, the low and stable situation in the eastern region is also a good foundation for the central and western regions to undertake transfer and the national industrial relocation.

　　 Only the export volume of chemical fiber clothing increased

The export performance of various raw materials and clothing is different. The export of chemical fiber clothing is unique, with both "quantity" and "value" increasing, while other raw materials and clothing are both "quantity" and "value" decreasing. It is not so much the effect of consumption tendency as the effect of raw material supply and raw material prices. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has aggravated the lack of supply and demand of cotton products, as well as the rise in the prices of "silk" and "wool" raw materials, which has to some extent curbed the export power of natural fiber clothing.

　 The industrial chain has synergistic dependence on exports

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2012, the export delivery value of enterprises above designated size accounted for 26.86% of the total industrial output value. If exports really accounted for more than 1/4 of the total economic output of the industry, a certain fluctuation should not cause a big shock to the operation of the industry. However, we have to use the export volume to correct the previous optimism. From January to June, 13.34 billion pieces were exported, which is equivalent to 10 pieces per Chinese person. However, the average consumption of Chinese people in half a year is far from this level. From the perspective of quantity, we still rely heavily on the demand of the international market, and serving the world is still a means of survival that China's clothing industry cannot abandon in a few years.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the textile industry in the upper reaches of the clothing industry seems to have a lower degree of dependence on foreign trade, but many of the "domestic" textiles are still ultimately used for export. This indirect dependence on the international market may be greater than direct dependence. The whole chain has a synergistic dependence on exports, so we must think about exports in the long run.

Finally, we have to mention the trade friction. Among the textile and clothing anti-dumping cases reported by the Ministry of Commerce in the first half of 2012, Peru, Argentina and Colombia filed cases involving clothing, men's suits and socks in the clothing industry. Although this will not cause substantive harm to the industry and it is difficult to say how it will spread, we have to pay attention to this sign. {page_break}

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　　 Difficulties in domestic demand

The reform of commercial enterprises and the commercialization of industrial enterprises need to be coordinated urgently

At present, China's domestic market is developing and maturing, gradually forming a closed path from processing and manufacturing to the end of retail and service industries, covering and spanning different industries such as agriculture, industrial manufacturing, circulation, commerce, and service industries. At present, the clothing industry and commerce, industry and service industry are still obviously separated. We are used to studying industrial data, but not used to contacting commercial data. In the future, the operation and reform of commercial enterprises and the acceleration of the commercialization process of industrial enterprises will have an impact on the clothing industry, bring new opportunities and open up new situations. However, for the moment, the industry still has to bear all kinds of difficulties brought by the low growth of domestic demand.

　 The growth rate of clothing consumption shows a downward trend

In 2012, there was probably no good market for any consumer goods except food. In the case of economic downturn, people's real wealth shrinking, and residents' lack of confidence in consumption, clothing cannot be isolated. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China reached 11453.7 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 14.2% year on year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods of enterprises (units) above designated size reached 5012.2 billion yuan, up 14.7% year on year; The retail sales of clothing products reached 518.1 billion yuan, up 17.0% year on year (the actual growth was less than 14% after deducting price factors), down 7.7 percentage points year on year, accounting for 10.34% of the total retail sales of consumer goods of enterprises (units) above designated size.

In the first half of the year, domestic clothing consumption continued to be sluggish, but the trend was basically stable. The weather was abnormal before and after the Spring Festival, and the adverse weather such as more rain in the south in spring accompanied clothing sales in the first half of the year. July was a traditional slack season, and sales fell back as expected. The sales data of 3000 retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce shows that the growth rate of clothing consumption in the first half of 2012 continued to decline and showed a downward trend.

　 The input-output ratio of traditional business is getting lower and lower

According to the statistics of China National Business Information Center, in the context of slowing economic growth, in the first six months of 2012, national key large-scale retail enterprises realized a year-on-year growth of 11.28% in the retail sales of clothing products, a decline of 14.11 percentage points compared with the same period in 2011, a year-on-year decline of 0.05% in sales, and a year-on-year increase of 11.34% in clothing sales prices.

The negative growth of sales volume shows the bleakness of clothing consumption characterized by "higher prices". At the same time, the lack of collective sales growth in large malls also questioned the traditional business operation model. The rising costs related to business have been criticized, but it is difficult to ease due to the scarcity of commercial resources. For many brand enterprises, the input-output ratio of traditional business is getting lower and lower, which to some extent restricts the development of brands, But it also urges brands to promote business model innovation.

Business model innovation directly hits the cost decomposition ability

When it comes to business model innovation, we have to talk about price. One of the most fundamental motivations of business model innovation is to reduce costs as much as possible and control prices. It is not difficult to see that the price control ability and cost decomposition ability of China's garment enterprises are relatively low. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the national retail price index of clothing commodities reached 103.6, and the clothing consumer price index rebounded to 103.5. In July, it increased by 3.6 and 3.5 percentage points respectively. From January to July, the ex factory price of clothing producers rose by 2.4% year on year, and in July, it rose by 1.9%. The trend of ex factory price showed a weak downward trend.

　 Low proportion of new products fails to reflect the actual price

In the case of extremely depressed market and no obvious increase in cost price, the terminal price of clothing still keeps rising, which is obviously unreasonable. It can be seen from the analysis that the list price of new products is still rising with the inertia of the previous year, and the actual price of market supply is not as optimistic as the data. From a statistical point of view, the market price is a comparison of "marked prices" of similar new products. In fact, one of the most prominent features of the Chinese clothing market in 2012 is the low proportion of new products. In other words, "de stocking" is one of the basic features of the Chinese clothing market in 2012.

　 Danger of inventory

Effective inventory mitigation requires future strategic and tactical cooperation of enterprises

The chain reaction of "de stocking" is "de ordering", although spin The new order index of the clothing industry is still above the critical point of 50, but I'm afraid that the promotion of the tag price increase on the prosperity index cannot be ignored, and the industry has generally felt the cold snap. We can see from the data that the inventory level of the industry in 2012 was significantly higher than that of the previous year, and the inventory of the previous year has shown a trend of increasing.

　　 Clarify Demand Inventory and Pure Surplus

One kind of inventory is demand, but due to information asymmetry or boundary constraints, it cannot be transferred to consumers for the time being. This kind of inventory can be digested through channel reform, such as online marketing, OUTLETS, tail goods market, etc. {page_break}

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If the inventory is pure surplus, and consumers have already obtained suitable goods, even if the price of these inventories is reduced to a very low level, it will not stimulate new consumption, and even affect the future sales of authentic goods, then only the supply can be contracted or the meat can be cut. No matter what method is used, it is impossible to digest the inventory problem deposited for several years in a short time. It takes time, methods, future strategic orientation and tactical cooperation of the enterprise to effectively relieve the inventory pressure.

The output should not increase by about 20% in the future

In the first half of 2012, the output growth of enterprises above designated size in China was effectively suppressed, and basically maintained a low growth. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, China's enterprises above designated size completed a total of 12.47 billion pieces of clothing, up 7.73% year on year. Among them, 6.352 billion were woven garments and 6.118 billion were knitted garments, up 8.05% and 7.40% respectively over the same period of 2011.

Looking at the continuous low growth rate after the financial crisis, we can see the cautious attitude of large enterprises towards output growth. The positive growth of output is the proof of industrial development. Although a large amount of inventory has been accumulated while accumulating industrial scale, as consumer goods with diversified demand, new product output is the most powerful proof of industrial development.

The output in the future should not increase by about 20% in the past. First, the growth rate of market demand is not so high, and then the growth rate of demand exceeds 20%. We must also improve effective supply and reduce inventory through a scientific operation model.

Demand increment in central and western regions has great potential

The increment of demand has great potential in the central and western regions, but the transformation of the industrial regional pattern cannot be achieved overnight. Gradient transfer needs to accumulate foundation and momentum. The output of the eastern region still accounts for 80% of the national output, and the industrial development in the central and western regions is slow, which can be seen from the investment data.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, enterprises above designated size in China's clothing industry actually completed an investment of 110.127 billion yuan, with 4234 construction projects, 2635 new projects and 1408 completed projects, respectively. The newly started projects were only 0.87 times as many as the completed projects, down from the first quarter. In the past, they were basically 1.75 times as many, which shows that China's clothing industry lacks investment motivation.

Statistics of enterprises above designated size show that from January to June 2012, domestic investment in China's clothing industry increased by 42.56% year on year, accounting for 91.35% of the total investment, 2.21 percentage points higher than the same period in 2011; The investment of foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 6.71% year on year; Investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 27.72% year on year. Domestic investment is relatively good.

　　 Profit puzzle

The Ecological Pattern of Garment Industry Should Form Diversified Dislocation Competition

It is a good thing to moderately restrain the growth rate of production and investment in the long run, but the most direct harm of "de stocking" is that we must endure the overall decline in the profitability of the industry in the short term. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2012, there were 14243 enterprises above the scale of the clothing industry (annual main business income of 20 million yuan and above), with a total main business income of 753.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.66% year on year, 18.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year; The total profit was 38.592 billion yuan, up 9.66% year on year, and the growth rate was 32.56 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year; The total industrial output value was 783.335 billion yuan, up 12.90% year on year, and the growth rate was 15.99 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. From January to June, there were 2691 loss making enterprises, with a loss area of 18.89%, an increase of 4.62 percentage points over the same period last year, and the loss amount of loss making enterprises increased by 50.62% year on year. The number of employees reached 4.2873 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.32%.

　 The high increase of financial expenses confirms the difficulty of financing

From January to June 2012, the total industrial output value, main business income and total profit of clothing enterprises above designated size increased by 12.90%, 11.66% and 9.66% respectively. The average gross profit rate of the industry was 15.50%, 0.11 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The profit rate was 5.12%, down 0.09 percentage points over the same period last year. The contribution rate of total assets increased by 0.09% over the same period of 2011, and the return on net assets decreased by 0.87 percentage points over the same period of 2011. Three fees accounted for 8.52%, up 0.46 percentage points year on year. The increase of gross profit rate of the industry is accompanied by the decrease of net profit rate, and the increase of cost cannot be ignored.

From the perspective of the increase of the three expenses in the clothing industry, the operating expenses, administrative expenses and financial expenses increased by 23.97%, 23.61% and 40.00% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the interest expenses in the financial expenses increased by 37.65% year on year. The three expenses accounted for 42.61%, 48.03% and 9.36% of the total expenses, respectively. The high growth of the financial expenses confirmed the increasing difficulty in financing the industry as a whole. {page_break}

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The improvement of per capita efficiency brightens the development of the industry

The growth rate of output value, sales and profit has dropped significantly, the scope of industry losses has expanded, the amount of losses has increased, the number of workers has decreased, and the development of the industry is obviously weak. In the difficult situation of the industry, the improvement of efficiency can be described as a bright color. From January to June, the number of employees of enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.32% year on year, while the per capita output value, per capita main business income and per capita profit increased by 14.41%, 13.15% and 11.12% respectively.

　 Construct a reasonable and effective industrial ecological pattern

Although we hope that the industry will embark on the road of intensification and form large industrial groups and transnational groups with strong international competitiveness as soon as possible, we must also recognize that, Clothing industry The foundation is still a large group of small and medium-sized enterprises. Different from many investment driven industries, the clothing industry can easily form diversified dislocation competition.

Small enterprises do not rely on limited markets, limited loans, and limited policies to survive, but rather obtain more reliable and sustainable development momentum in an ecosystem created by large enterprises. In the future, it will be more and more difficult for small enterprises to survive in isolation. They will either develop in groups in the form of industrial clusters, or be associated with a large enterprise, or absorb external investment to rapidly grow into large and medium-sized enterprises with radiation capabilities. According to the statistics of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce, the life span of small and medium-sized enterprises is only 2.9 years. Extending the life span of enterprises and enhancing their vitality is indeed one of the basic functions of industrial ecology.

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