Cotton Prices Are Entering The New And Old Transitional Period. Zheng Cotton Is Expected To Start Rising Prices.

Cotton has completed the bottoming process, the main 1301 contract has entered the key point of competition, if we can break through the previous high of 19685 yuan, the market will start.

At present, extreme weather in the main cotton producing areas of the northern hemisphere is causing worries about the reduction of production. cotton The purchase and storage is getting more and more. Under the promotion of many profits, Zheng cotton has completed the bottoming process of the oscillation. The main 1301 contract has entered the competition of key points. If we can break through the suppression of the previous high point of 19685 yuan, Zheng cotton's rising market will start and the target price will be 20000 yuan.

　 Extreme weather in cotton producing areas has led to worries about reducing production.

8 since the middle of last month, extreme weather has occurred in the main cotton producing areas of the northern hemisphere, and the market is worried that the cotton output in the new year will be affected. The United States continues to dry this year, and more than 50% of the land is threatened by drought. Recently, some cotton areas have come to rain, but not enough to alleviate the drought. According to the US Department of agriculture's seedling report, as of August 19th, the good and excellent rate of cotton seedlings in Texas, USA was only 22%, the proportion of seedlings in general was 32%, the proportion of poor seedlings was 46%, and the tendency of seedling deterioration was deteriorating. This year's rainfall in India is 20% lower than in previous years, and cotton production is expected to decrease this year. India will decide whether to restrict exports according to domestic output. The recent rainy weather in China has a great impact on the cotton fields in the Huang Huai basin. Among them, some cotton and peach trees in Shandong and Hebei are moldy, and the cotton fields in low-lying areas are flooded, and the cotton growing areas in Xinjiang and Yangtze River are less affected.

Purchasing and storage is playing an important role.

The rumor of early dumping and storage increases the frequency of cotton price fluctuation, and as the time of storage and storage is approaching, the pressure of market speculation is reduced. Purchasing and storage policy The price increases gradually. From time to time, the new year's purchase and storage will start in September 6th, and the probability that the state will throw away the stock at the beginning of the purchase and purchase will be smaller. Even if it is to be thrown, the quantity will also be limited, and the additional quota will increase the supply of foreign cotton, which will be harmful to the purchase and storage, and the possibility of short-term implementation is not great. According to the survey, the domestic cotton storage capacity is more than 10 million tons. At present, the cotton reserves are 4 million 500 thousand tons. Even if the cotton storage and storage in the new year is firmly implemented, the total quantity of cotton storage can also meet the demand. Later, it will enter the storage and storage period, and the function of purchasing and storing up will increase gradually.

　 The spot market is showing signs of activity.

At present, cotton spot prices are basically stable, and the downstream cotton yarn market has the intention to raise prices. According to customs reports, in July 2012, China's textile and apparel exports were 23 billion 890 million US dollars, down 8.1% from the same period last year, increasing by 4.3% compared to the same period, and the increase has been increasing for three consecutive months, indicating that exports are slowly recovering. At the same time, the enquiry of the downstream yarn market has increased. Some manufacturers have already raised the price intention. Although the actual price range is narrow, the overall market is still slack, but there are signs of recovery. Entering the September, the textile market will enter the traditional peak season, and the downstream will increase the procurement of raw materials, which will play a supporting role in cotton prices.

Technically, Zheng Mian 1301 contract shock has bottomed out for two months. Recently, it successfully broke through the EMA and stabilized the pre pressure level of 19500 yuan. At present, it is sprinting to the key point 19680 yuan. Despite the lack of effective coordination, the rising form of Zheng cotton has been basically established. If the latter can successfully break through the suppression of the previous high point, the medium term market will soon start.

The rally is about to start.

　　 Cotton price Has entered the transition period between the new and the old, short-term storage policy will be the focus of the market. If the extreme weather continues in the northern hemisphere later, it will change the cotton supply pattern of the new year. Zheng cotton has completed the oscillating bottoming process under Lido resonance, and the rising market is about to start.