Inside And Outside Cotton Price Difference Big Cotton Will Gradually Close To The Reserve Price.

Despite the huge difference between inside and outside cotton prices, Spin It is difficult for enterprises to export, but considering that domestic storage and purchase plan will be launched in early September, Zheng cotton's main contract 1301 will continue to oscillate upward, and finally close to the 20400 yuan / ton purchase and storage price. However, the purchase and storage policy can not change the pattern of high global cotton inventories. In the long run, the cotton market will face severe challenges after the end of the storage period in March 31, 2013.

　 1301 the contract will close to the reserve price.

According to the policy plan, the Chinese government will launch the purchase and storage plan in September when new cotton comes into the market. The storage price is 20400 yuan per ton, and the quantity is not restricted. The relevant departments will monitor the cotton prices of the China Cotton Association and the national cotton market, and monitor the average price from 5 consecutive working days below 20400 yuan / ton in September 1st. This is similar to the situation of storage and purchase in 2011. It is clear that if the storm weather and other severe weather are encountered, the scope of storage can also be extended to grade 5 cotton after being studied by relevant departments. Therefore, in accordance with the current situation, the purchase and storage work in September 8th is likely to start.

At present, the price of zhengmian 1301 contract is far lower than the purchase and storage price. As the time window draws near, the cotton price will move closer. Due to the storage and closing time as of March 31st, the 1301 contract is relatively strong during this period, while the 1305 contract will be vulnerable because of the lack of storage and support.

　 Serious global cotton surplus

At present, the global cotton surplus is serious, and there is no sign of improvement, which is the main factor to suppress cotton prices. The US Department of agriculture's global supply and demand report in August showed that the global cotton production in 2012/2013 was 24 million 844 thousand tons, an increase of 64 thousand tons compared with July, 23 million 548 thousand tons of consumption, 179 thousand tons lower than that in July, and 16 million 257 thousand tons in the end of the world, an increase of 495 thousand tons over July, an increase of 1 million 496 thousand tons over 2011/2012. Therefore, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 69.04% next year, up from 64.33% this year.

Domestic, textile enterprises have fewer new orders, slower cotton consumption and weaker purchasing demand. According to the survey results, in July, the scale of the cotton industry in China's scale textile enterprises was 741 thousand and 300 tons, and the commercial stocks of the cotton enterprises were 1 million 470 thousand tons. The total inventory of industrial and commercial enterprises was only 242 thousand and 300 tons lower than that in June, indicating that the cotton consumption rate of textile enterprises was very slow. As a result of the same period last year, the total volume of industrial and commercial inventories in July decreased by 457 thousand and 500 tons compared with June.

From the export situation, China's textile industry clothing Exports are facing a rare and severe situation in recent years. Because domestic cotton prices are far higher than international cotton prices, cotton textile enterprises have high cost of raw materials and export difficulties will continue.

Serious backlog of imported cotton

In August, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed compared with the end of 7. If the price differentials continue to narrow in the future, it will help domestic cotton prices rise. However, a large number of imported cotton are kept in the warehouse. With the new cotton coming into the market in September, and the shortage of capital flow, some import enterprises can not even issue letters of credit or letters of credit, nor can they pay for them. Under such circumstances, enterprises without futures hedging have assumed greater risks.

In order to cope with the purchase and storage plan in September, management or maintaining a tight quota policy. However, in the late stage of storage and purchase, management should consider how to solve the problem of cotton backlog to prevent its backtracking. Cotton market To form a new impact.