The Performance Of Clothing Enterprises In The Report Is Consistent With Expectations, And Men'S Clothing Orders Will Become The Focus Of Attention

One week's main review: 1. Industry tracking: ① In August, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the current economy is still in the downward process, but in combination with changes in major sub indexes, the current economy is gradually bottoming out in the downward trend.

2. Company tracking: ① Seven Wolf Spring/Summer 2013 order meeting tracking: Last week we visited and tracked seven Wolf franchisees. At present clothing The selling out rate is about 50-60%, down from the same period last year. However, the franchisees are generally highly motivated to place orders, and the prices of products are basically not raised. It is estimated that the growth rate of orders is about 15-20%. ② Baoxiniao reported in the middle: EPS was 0.21 yuan, up 39.1% year on year, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. The main brand Baoxiniao continued to raise prices, which led to a sharp rise in gross profit margin and a significant improvement in operating cash flow. The company has 1076 sales terminals, including 851 Baoxiniao and 222 San Jero. The confirmed growth rate of the order meeting in spring and summer of 2013 is 15%. It is expected that the large amount of supplementary orders in the later period will contribute about 10% growth, and the overall growth rate of the order meeting is expected to be about 25%. Maintain the EPS of 0.8/1.2/1.6 yuan in 2012-2014, corresponding to 13/9/7 times of PE, and maintain buying. ③ Youngor's interim report: EPS was 0.41 yuan, up 5.4% year on year, and the performance was in line with expectations. Brand clothing : 25% of the shares of 14 holding subsidiaries have been consolidated, achieving a net profit of 530 million yuan and contributing EPS of 24 yuan; Real estate sector: Long Island Garden and Future City Phase V entered the delivery period, achieving a net profit of 380 million yuan, contributing 0.17% of EPS; Financial investment: a small loss of 1.72 million yuan. Maintain the 2012-2014 EPS of 0.9/1.1/1.4 yuan, and maintain overweight. ④ Smith Barney Clothes & Accessories Interim report: EPS was 0.43 yuan, up 14.8% year on year, and the performance was in line with expectations. Inventory tends to a reasonable level, and operating cash flow is significantly improved from negative to positive. In the first half of the year, 346 stores were added, including 192 directly operated stores. Maintain the company's EPS of 1.5/1.8/2.2 yuan from 2012 to 2014, corresponding to PE of 13/11/9 times, and maintain an increase in shareholding. ⑤ Senma Clothing reported in the middle: EPS was 0.37 yuan, down 43% year on year, and the performance was lower than expected. In the first half of the year, there was a significant decline in revenue, the increase in the period expense ratio led to a sharp decline in the net profit margin, and the inventory pressure continued to rise. Although the operating cash flow improved compared with the beginning of the year, the absolute amount was still negative. Maintain the EPS of 1.6/1.9/2.1 yuan from 2012 to 2014, corresponding to 13/11/10 times of PE, and maintain neutrality. ⑥ Personnel adjustment of Luolai Home Textile: Mr. Gong Juefei resigned as the Secretary of the Board of Directors, and Mr. Tian Lin, the Chief Financial Officer, temporarily acted as the Secretary of the Board of Directors.

last week spin The trend of the clothing sector was weaker than the market. Last week, the textile and clothing index fell 4.78%, 1.54% lower than the Shenwan A index. Among them, the clothing home textile index fell 5.81%, 2.57% lower than the Shenwan A index; The textile manufacturing index fell 3.48%, 0.25% lower than the Shenwan A index.

Basic industry data: ① PMI in August was 49.2%. The production index is slightly higher than 50%, and other indexes are either 50% or below. ② From January to July, the domestic sales of textile enterprises above designated size decreased by 20.3% year on year.

From January to July, the cumulative growth rate of textile enterprises above designated size decreased by 18.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. ③ The price of cotton and chemical fiber last week was dominated by small shocks: domestic 328 spot goods rose slightly by 0.5% last week to close at 18520 yuan/ton, and Zheng Mian's main contract rose slightly by 0.3% to close at 19525 yuan/ton. Polyester staple fiber rose 0.7% to 10700 yuan/ton, viscose staple fiber flat to 15700 yuan/ton, and nylon chip to 20300 yuan/ton.

Our view: Clothing enterprises The performance of the mid report was basically in line with expectations, and the growth rate of men's clothing orders is expected to be slightly lower than that in the first half of the year. The net profit of export manufacturing enterprises in the first half of the year grew negatively, and the performance in the interim report was lower than expected. The performance of domestic clothing enterprises was basically in line with expectations, among which the growth of men's clothing leaders was relatively stable. In terms of men's clothing order meeting in spring and summer of 2013, it is expected that the growth rate of Baoxiniao's order amount is about 25%, that of Septwolves is between 15-20%, and that of Jiumuwang is about 10%. The overall growth rate is expected to be slightly lower than that of the first half of the year. We continue to recommend the leading men's clothing brands, Seven Wolves, Nine Muwang, Baoxiniao, as well as potential growth stocks, Shanghai Jiahua and Lucie.

Baoxibird is currently at the bottom of valuation and can gradually build positions, but it is estimated that valuation repair still needs performance catalysis; The stock price callback of Luolai Home Textile gives long-term investors a better opportunity to intervene, and it is recommended to pay appropriate attention.