Manufacturing Industry Continues To Shrink Cotton Prices Do Not Have The Conditions To Rise

Global

Continued to shrink, Markit's global manufacturing PMI in August dropped to 48.4 after a three month decline, the lowest since June 2009.

In addition to the total index, the sub index is also generally weakening: the new order index contracted rapidly, and the output index fell faster than the extreme value of more than two years. Exports contracted for four consecutive months, and employment contracted for two consecutive months.

Among them, the textile industry's production is still not ideal.

From the perspective of industrial orders, the inventory of finished products in textile industry has decreased, which has dropped more than the newly revised volume. At the same time, with the arrival of the traditional purchase season of "golden nine silver ten", the stock of raw materials has increased, and the textile industry is expected to enter a new round of inventory pfer cycle.

Coupled with the stabilization of raw material prices, production and processing and profits will improve.

In terms of policy, the orientation of the world's major economies is different, but the purpose of regulation is to maintain stability.

The attitude towards QE3 varies with the fluctuation of economic data.

The author believes that QE3 is more likely to launch, and the QE3 can be adjusted by the fed at every meeting according to the economic situation and the zero interest rate policy should be extended.

The euro zone is moving towards reducing the risk of financial crisis, or will introduce monetary stimulus to help economic growth.

Chinese officials are more concerned about the consequences of stimulus policies from 2008 to 2009.

Considering the impact of the change and the long-term economic development plan, the government has begun to endure short-term low growth, and the fine tuning is the government's choice.

The cotton (19595,40.00,0.20%) market is still in the stage of de stocking.

Although different institutions have different data and estimates due to the different caliber and mode of statistics, it can not be denied that the overall situation of 2012/2013 continues to supply and demand in the past year. The total consumption of the world is declining, the end inventory is increasing, and the inventory consumption ratio is rising.

The main production and marketing situation of cotton shows that consumption in China and the United States has decreased, inventories increased, inventories and consumption ratios have risen, and India's performance has been different. Consumption growth, inventory reduction and inventory consumption ratio have decreased in some countries, which to a certain extent has led to the rise of cotton prices in India, making it closer to the international cotton price.

Overall, in the context of global cotton de stocking,

There are no conditions for the rise.

A series of measures from the domestic cotton industry from the round store, import quota control, new flower standards to the rectification of the market, all showed that the government decided to stabilize cotton prices and adjust the structure.

Against this background, although cotton is still in storage, the space for cotton prices to fall is also very limited. The price of 18500 yuan / ton will probably be relatively low this year.

But consumption is weak, inventory is high, and the space for cotton prices to rise can also be foreseen unless QE3 really implements the new round of inflation.

In addition, from the perspective of industrial development, the increase in cotton planting costs, the decline in revenue, the low processing profit of textile processing, and the run of chemical products have made the entire cotton textile industry face a grim situation of structural adjustment.

As for the global production and marketing situation, India will undoubtedly become a prominent star in the next time window. There will also be significant changes in the layout of imports and exports. Under the two-way role of higher domestic reserve price and import control, the big difference between inside and outside will become the norm.

On the whole, cotton textile enterprises can actively participate in the operation of the storage and storage of cotton, but also can hedge futures and avoid the risk of price fluctuation. In addition, they need to upgrade their technology and management to form brand advantage.

In terms of futures speculation, in 2012, the auction price was 18500 yuan / ton. Once the cotton price is lower than the price, it is recommended to buy, and the profit can be expected.

No quantitative storage price is 20400 yuan / ton, the price of new flower may be at that price.

If there is a noticeable improvement in consumption or a significant positive policy in the industry, there will be a trend of rising cotton prices.

At the same time, because the US cotton has more price elasticity than Zheng cotton, its rise will also be greater.