USDA 2012/13 Global Cotton Production Decreased, Cotton Production Is Still Larger Than Consumption.

Global cotton production decreased in USDA 2012/13

Global cotton trade is expected to be 36 million 600 thousand bales in 2012/13, up 800000 packs last month.

However, world trade is expected to decrease by 9% over the previous year.

Global

The decrease reflects China's weak imports. China's imports in 2012/13 are expected to decline 51% from last year to 12 million bales.

Bangladesh and Indonesia are expected to import 3 million 600 thousand and 2 million 200 thousand packs respectively in 2012/13, up 14% and 9% respectively over the previous year.

Imports of Pakistan and Turkey are expected to increase by 140% and 26% respectively, to 2 million 400 thousand bales and 3 million bales.

Australia and Brazil expect to export 4 million 200 thousand bales and 4 million bales of cotton in 2012/13 respectively, down 8% and 17% from last year.

India is expected to export 3 million 500 thousand packs, down 200000 packets from last month, but 67% more than last year.

India's cotton supply and demand table was revised in 2010/11 and 2011/12, reflecting the recent updated figures of the National Cotton Advisory Committee of India.

USDA cotton production is higher than consumption, world stock rises

Cotton consumption in the world 2012/13 is expected to be 107 million 600 thousand packs, down 600000 packets from last month, but increased by 3% over the previous year, reflecting a relatively low global economic situation and a more favorable price environment than last year.

If so, this will be the third consecutive year when the global textile mill consumption is lower than the global output.

China accounts for 35% of global consumption, and China expects to spend 38 million packs, down 1 million packets from last month's report, down 2.6% from last year's report.

If so, China

Plant consumption is expected to be the lowest level in nearly 10 years.

China's price support and national reserve policy continue to erode the profits of domestic cotton mills, resulting in the loss of market share.

In 2012/13, India and Pakistan are expected to consume 21 million 500 thousand and 11 million 300 thousand bales of cotton, up 7% and 11% respectively over the previous year.

The consumption of Turkey textile mill is expected to remain unchanged in 2012/13, and US consumption is expected to increase by 3% to 3 million 400 thousand bales.

The demand for global textile mills is weak and production is relatively high, which is expected to lead to a high inventory at the end of 2012/13.

The end of the world inventory is expected to be 76 million 500 thousand packs, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year.

China's final inventory is expected to be 35 million 500 thousand packs, up 16% from last year, accounting for 46% of global inventories.

Australia is expected to hold 3 million 500 thousand packs of final inventory, a record high, an increase of 5% over last year.

Final inventory in India and Pakistan is expected to be 8 million 200 thousand and 3 million 400 thousand respectively, representing an increase of 6.5% and 8.2% respectively over the previous year.

India accounts for 11% of the world's final inventory and 4% of Pakistan.

The US stock at the end of the year was 5 million 300 thousand packs, an increase of 58% over the previous year.

Global end inventories are expected to increase to the global level.

Downward pressure on prices.