Textile Industry Should Be Vigilant For Speculation Of Raw Material Of Mao Ma Again.

The recent TV coverage of a crazy channel of soybean meal is reminiscent of speculation. Wheat is more expensive than flour, and pig feed is more expensive than rice. market Failure? Or other factors? The Futures Company, named by CCTV, has both Zhejiang capital and the world's top 500 central enterprises. In the eyes of the outside world, all kinds of capital seem to conspire to raise the price of agricultural products, and totally ignore the overall situation of domestic macroeconomic regulation and control. Some scholars believe that for the attributes of agricultural products, taking soybean meal as an example, many valuable contents are worth studying.

Soybean meal is a by-product of soybeans after crushing soybean oil. More than 80% of the soybean meal is used for poultry and livestock raising each year. In recent years, domestic soybean meal has maintained more than 10% of annual consumption growth. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that China's soybean meal consumption is 47 million tons in 2011/2012 and will increase to nearly 50 million tons in 2012/2013. Soybean meal is also a variety of listed futures trading. Its holdings reached a new high of 3 million 670 thousand last month, which means that only the species attracted more than 10 billion yuan of funds. Compared with nearly 1000 shares of A shares in Shanghai during the same period, the total daily turnover was less than 40 billion yuan.

For some grassroots economists, the rise in soybean meal is not a good thing. A review of the 3 significant increases in soybean meal in the last 10 years corresponds to the economic downturn, which occurred in 2004, 2008 and 2012 respectively. The regularity of periodicity is very obvious.

In the current soybean meal market, the theme of surface speculation is drought reduction in soybean production in the United States, pushing up the cost of domestic imports, but behind it highlights the price risks raised by China's external dependence on agriculture. Compared with the production capacity in the industrial sector represented by rebar steel, there are two serious structural problems facing the Chinese economy. According to the relevant estimates, China's 1 billion 820 million mu of arable land has been reclaimed for 2 billion 350 million mu, of which 1 billion 650 million mu has been used for planting three main staples of corn, rice and wheat, and 320 million mu for planting vegetables and fruits, while the agricultural and sideline products such as mung bean, soybean and cotton have been gradually squeezed out. This also explains the mystery of China's grain production for 9 consecutive years, but at the price of "garlic you are ruthless" and "beans you play" happen frequently. Although the NDRC has repeatedly interviewed and punished speculation, it has not been able to cure it.

There is a set of data that best illustrates the problem: China's imports last year cotton 3 million 310 thousand tons, 6 million 740 thousand tons of vegetable oil, 2 million tons of sugar, 55 million tons of soybeans, and six hundred million or seven hundred million hectares of cultivated land. This aggravates the negative effect of our foreign oriented economy, that is, the export of manufacturing commodities is very flexible with the fluctuation of target market economy, such as Europe and America, and the import of agricultural products is rigid because of the inherent gap of domestic output. The combination will result in a slightly better export situation and easy inflation. The decline in exports will be in a predicament of stagflation. In addition, with the gradual exhaustion of population, system and globalization dividend, China's economic growth potential began to decline. The use of traditional counter cyclical monetary policy was greatly restricted by the constraints of agricultural short board.

We know that finance and technology are the top of the economic Pyramid. Agriculture and industry are the cornerstone of Pyramid. There is no solid foundation for development and transformation. But China's long-term agricultural security problem is indeed worrying. Recently, media reported that Shouguang in Shandong, a vegetable farm, could not grow vegetables without proper fertilizer. The right to contract land was separated from ownership, and the way of exhaustion of land productivity had left agriculture in a dilemma. In contrast, the arable land in Canada and the United States is not the first goal in pursuit of short-term high yield, but the comprehensive consideration of the carrying capacity of land and the sustainable development of agriculture. In a vertical contrast, 100 years ago, when American agricultural scholar Franklin H king made a four thousand year farmer in China, he was amazed at the fact that China's 4000 years' farming soil was still fertile, and that it lived several times more than that of the United States. The secret lies in the advanced irrigation technology, organic agriculture and the scientific utilization of land.

To sum up, Spin Although the raw material of wool and silk is only a small commodity, there has been a history of frying. Therefore, the problem caused by soybean meal is also worth our industry's consideration and vigilance.