Whether Sports Goods Are Recovered Is Still Controversial

Since September 27, the sports goods stocks that have been "falling all the time" have collectively stopped falling and recovered, and continued the upward trend after the National Day. By 16:00 yesterday, the stock prices of most sporting goods enterprises had risen by more than 30%, and many enterprises' stock prices had risen by more than 10% on a single day.

Among them, Anta In more than three weeks, the stock price has risen 31.9%, the special step has risen 34.9%, the 361 degree has risen 22.7%, PEAK has risen 31.5%, and Li Ning has risen 14.7%.

Sports stocks are collectively hyped

According to the analysis, the recent collective rise of sporting goods stocks was stimulated to some extent by the positive attitude of institutions. On September 27, UBS issued a 44 page analysis report, predicting that sports apparel would become one of the fastest recovering sectors of non essential consumer goods, and gave Anta, Tebu and Li Ning "buy" ratings.

On the same day, the shares of Tebu, Anta and Li Ning all rose with the market, of which Anta rose nearly 4.81% to close at 5.44 yuan, while Tebu and Li Ning rose 0.39% and 1.04% respectively. Then, on September 28, sports goods stocks were popular, among which Tebu rose 10.71%, Anta rose 9.56%, Li Ning rose 6.72%, PEAK rose 10.48%, and 361 degrees rose 9.04%.

On October 4, Hong Kong stocks rose 1.7%. Affected by this trend, the sports goods stocks that had rebounded at the end of September were again collectively hyped. The leader was Tebu International, which rose 10% to close at 3.03 yuan. Li Ning's share price rose 8.8% to close at 4.66 yuan. Other sports brands also saw a 4% - 8% increase.

It is understood that the latest collective surge in sporting goods stocks was in the middle of the Olympic Games. On August 6, among domestic sporting goods stocks, Anta Sports rose 17.15%, recovering the loss of nearly a month; Li Ning rose 12.15%, Tebu International rose 8.75%, PEAK Sports rose 8.93%, and 361 Degrees rose 5.71%.

Investment banks frequently raise ratings

On September 27, UBS reported that the consolidation phase of the sportswear industry was nearing completion. Most of the listed companies have slowed down the speed of closing their stores, while most of them are not listed clothing The enterprise is still operating, or the scale of operation may be reduced. The bank expects that the leading sports apparel companies in the mainland have been restructured recently, and the mainland brands must improve their ability to replenish inventory to improve their distribution system. To this end, the Bank reiterated its "buy" ratings of Anta, Tebu and Li Ning, and raised the target price of Li Ning from 6 yuan to 6.5 yuan.

On October 17, Credit Suisse raised Anta's target price by 50% to 7.8 yuan, and its rating was upgraded to "outperform the market". The report pointed out that the rebound of sports share price had reflected the recovery of industry revenue and profits in the first half of 2013.

In addition, Bank of America Merrill Lynch also released a report recently, which is bullish on sports goods stocks, because it has seen some positive signs at the retail level: the price reduction of new products in autumn and winter has shrunk, retail inventory has improved month on month, profitability of some large domestic brand retailers has improved, and industry integration has accelerated.

To this end, Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded Anta's rating from "neutral" to "buy", and its target price rose from 4.8 yuan to 8 yuan; The 361 degree rating was raised from "neutral" to "buy", and the target price was raised from 2.12 yuan to 3 yuan; The rating of China Trend was raised to "buy" from "underperform", and the target price was raised to 1.4 yuan from 0.6 yuan.

Whether the recovery is still controversial

It is understood that the share prices of some sporting goods stocks have dropped by 50% since the low point in late July this year. However, from the collective performance of sporting goods stocks from late September to the present, the industry is accelerating to recover lost ground.

However, there are still different voices in the industry in judging the long-term trend of stock prices. Credit Suisse expects that the industry revenue and profit will bottom out in the first half of next year, and destocking may also end in the second half of next year. The same store sales growth has reached the worst situation, and it is expected to recover slowly in the fourth quarter of this year.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also expects that there will be signs of recovery in the mainland sporting goods stocks, and suggests investors to buy selectively, such as market Anta Sports, a leading company with a strong supply chain, has a low valuation and high dividend yield of 361 degrees and China Trends.

However, at the beginning of September, Goldman Sachs announced that it would stop studying four mainland sports brand stocks, including China Trends, Special Step, Peak and 361 Degrees, and pointed out that the mainland sports goods industry would enter a long-term downward cycle, mainly due to two structural problems: the slowdown of consumer demand, and the oversupply of similar products and the excessive expansion of retail network, The industry is highly competitive.