The Age Of Polarization In Textile And Garment Industry Is Coming.

What is the difference between our views?

The inventory cycle is the core factor leading to the 11-12 year boom of the mainstream men's clothing industry.

With the slowing down of terminal retail, the increase of discount and the reduction of sales rate, the influence of these two factors is gradually weakening, and the textile and garment industry will soon enter a new round of adjustment stage.

From the perspective of the life cycle of the textile and garment industry, the share of new area coverage is higher than that of the existing areas, and it is still a low cost customer acquisition mode.

In the early stage of the life cycle, the sub textile and garment industry represents more vigorous demand and more relaxed competition environment, so it is expected to get higher overall performance growth in the relatively weak textile and garment industry environment.

With the coming of the age of great differentiation and the steady growth of structural opportunities after 2011-12 years, the slowdown in store growth, the increase in terminal discounts and the fall in sales rate will push men's clothing industry into a new round of adjustment cycle. The differentiation between brand and brand, sub textile and garment industry and sub textile garment industry will be the most significant feature of the current round of adjustment.

For the first time, we covered the Chinese men's wear industry, giving the mainstream men's clothing industry neutral rating and the high-end men's clothing industry rating.

It is the first choice to buy and benefit from the fast growth of the card and garment industry, and the strong support of the channel and the low price of the distributors.

The key point of supporting rating is textile and garment industry downturn and entering the age of polarization.

The deterioration of dealer profitability indicates that the men's clothing industry will enter a new round of adjustment cycle.

From the end of the 13 year spring and summer ordering meeting for men's clothing, the domestic market

The order growth rate dropped from a 12 year high of 20%-30% to a low double-digit or even digits level.

Under the background of slowing down of textile and garment industry, the difference of brand operation mode and the difference of development stages of sub textile and garment industry will result in differentiation of individual stock performance.

Mainstream men's clothing industry: cycle dominates performance.

With the increase of channel permeability, the mainstream men's clothing industry will gradually enter the cycle leading stage.

In this way, the profit rate of the domestic men's wear is returned to the international level in the long run.

High end men's wear industry: focus on the expansion opportunities of the three or four tier cities.

The high-end men's clothing industry is in a period of rapid development. The three or four line cities with wide distribution of middle and high income groups will provide broad space for channel sinking.

According to the analysis of the permeability of target customers, we expect that the leading enterprises in the textile and garment industry will have more than doubled the expansion space, and the fast growing demand and relatively relaxed competitive environment will hopefully ensure the rapid growth of the textile and garment industry in the market.

The main risk of rating, terminal consumption, rapid promotion, leading to mainstream men's clothing inventory to be faster than expected.

As a result, the net profit margin of mainstream men's clothing is dropping faster than expected.

The impact of channel settlement on the ratio of rent to sale is not obvious.

Therefore, if the high-end men's clothing brand new store marginal efficiency is too low, then the fixed cost pressure of decoration and labor can lead to less profit than the new store.

In the period of rapid expansion, leading enterprises have coexisted with high speed channel expansion and same store growth in recent years, indicating that the textile and garment industry is still in the stage of "supply driven" development. During this period, rapid store expansion will be the lowest cost customer acquisition mode.

As a leading enterprise in textile and garment industry, we hope to achieve rapid layout and adverse market growth by means of capital strength.

In the context of the decline of textile and garment industry, dealer confidence has become the leading factor in the medium term performance of the brand.

In mainstream men's clothing enterprises, the channel support is the highest and the dealer's inventory pressure is the lightest. Therefore, it is expected to recover from the inventory cycle.