Annual Strategy Study Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2013

< p > unique viewpoint < /p >
< p > domestic sales and exports this year showed "volume and price down". Against this background, we are looking for industries that are still increasing in subdivision. The Hong Kong stock and A shares in the sub sectors were compared in terms of scale, performance growth, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > profitability > /a > level and operating capacity. The conclusion is: (1) gross luxury brands are high in Hong Kong stocks; (2) gross margin is the key to the inventory process of the mass leisure wear industry; (3) sports goods industry: orders for the two quarter of 2013 are still declining; (4) outdoor industry: high industry growth is sustainable, but also need to guard against high inventory; (5) home textile industry: the real estate recovery should be reflected in the lag effect; (6) a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp" > leather shoes < /a >: Men's shoes have relatively low inventory pressure. We are 7 (7) women's wear: pay attention to the historical valuation fluctuation of baozi. < /p >
< p > investment point < /p >
< p > 1. plate review: consumption downturn, high inventory, textile < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > clothing < /a > plate lose all year round. In 1-10 months, the SW textile and apparel industry index fell 17.09%, running all A shares and Shanghai and Shenzhen 30013.91PCT and 13.59PCT. At present, the valuation of the plate in 2012 is 17.02 times, lower than the lower limit of the historical valuation interval (20-30 times). We believe that the reasons leading to the loss of the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > clothing sector are mainly: (1) in the first half of the year, the consumption is low and the weather is abnormal, while the management decisions of the listed companies are relatively lagging behind. (2) listed companies generally lowered the growth rate of opening stores in 2013 (10%), and the growth of orders in spring and summer in 13 years will be lower than expected: (3) the market generally lowered the 2013 profit forecast. < /p >
< p > 2. ye ye Zhi autumn, the textile and garment industry is still under pressure for a short time. (1) at the macro level, the retail price of terminal retail is slow, the inventory pressure and the accounts receivable pressure of listed companies are increasing. (2) at the industry level, the impact of online shopping increased; (3) at the level of listed companies, accounts receivable and inventory pressure appeared, seven wolves, Semir costumes and Pathfinder inventories were fully prepared, and began to control the growth of accounts receivable; (4) textile industry exports were concerned about the United States going to stockpile process; (5) low demand and continued expansion of domestic and foreign cotton prices, the domestic cotton prices rose with limited space. < /p >
< p > 3. brand clothing sub industry and listed companies analysis: focus on outdoor and high-end men's clothing. (1) the average sales volume of jackets, men's suits and women's wear is higher. (2) we compare the size, performance growth, profitability and operational capacity of Hong Kong stocks and A shares in 7 sub sectors. < /p >
< p > 4.2013 years investment strategy of textile and garment industry. We believe that from the perspective of the real economy, both domestic and foreign countries are in a weak recovery stage. Although the plate has experienced a double dip, but because of slower growth, and terminal sales, inventory and export orders showing no signs of improvement, we are not optimistic about the first half of next year. The turning point is first seen in the second half of next year. In the coming year, we will continue to pay close attention to 1. high growth models: the silver cashmere industry, the card slave Road, and the 2. appeal type: Orient Jinyu; 3. low PB safety varieties. < /p >
< p > 5. risk warning. (1) the risk of raw material price fluctuation; (2) the high cost and inventory risk brought by channel expansion; (3) the risk of rising labor costs; (4) the risk of commercial real estate rents rising. < /p >