Looking At The Trend Of Cotton Market Price From The 2013 Policy

< p > recently, the NDRC made it clear that the reserve cotton would be put into the market in the near future to meet the needs of textile enterprises. As of December 27, 2012, the total amount of temporary storage and storage reached 5 million 140 thousand tons, more than 2 million 20 thousand tons of the total storage capacity (3 million 120 thousand tons) in the previous year. < /p >
< p > because the main selling way of processing enterprises is "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> cotton < /a >, the resources of domestic cotton spot market are reduced, and prices are rising steadily. Textile enterprises have been expecting the country to put cotton in storage as soon as possible. Details of relevant policies have become the focus of attention due to the specific mode and time of dumping. < /p >
< p > cotton price fluctuation has a great influence on textile enterprises. What is the trend of cotton prices in 2013? Analysts generally agree that in the case of relatively low supply and demand, the cotton market will mainly move around the policy in 2013. Therefore, the reporter integrated the analysis and forecast of all walks of life, and made a conjecture on the cotton policy in 2013. < /p >
< p > < strong > 2012: storage capacity is higher than < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > 2013: temporary collection and storage policy will continue to be < /strong > /p >
< p > our country began to implement cotton temporary < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > storage and purchase policy < /a > since 2011. 2011/2012 has collected about 3100000 tons of cotton at the price of 19 thousand and 800 yuan per ton, accounting for about 7 million 200 thousand tons of cotton output in that year, and the price of cotton purchase and storage in 2013 has reached 20400 yuan / ton, which is 600 yuan higher than that in 2011. < /p >
The temporary storage and storage of cotton in < p > 2012/2013 started in September 10, 2012. Due to the textile demand is not strong, the market cotton price continues to be lower than the purchase and storage price. As of December 27, 2012, temporary storage and storage totaled 5 million 140 thousand tons. It is estimated that the current temporary storage capacity has accounted for 75% of the estimated output and is expected to reach 5 million 500 thousand tons in 2012/2013. < /p >
< p > under the temporary purchasing and storage policy, cotton growers actively picked and sold seed cotton, and the enterprises increased their purchasing and selling efforts. The progress of acquisition and processing of new cotton was obviously faster than that of last year. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, by the end of 2012, the picking rate of cotton seeds was over, and the selling rate was 91% (of which the seed cotton sale in Xinjiang was over), an increase of 5 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the new cotton processing rate was 94%, up 18 percentage points over the same period last year. At the end of 2012, the average selling price of the standard grade lint in the mainland was 19219 yuan / ton, up 465 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of September, and the cotton price in the domestic market showed a steady upward trend. The average price of the cotton seed purchase in the mainland was 8.4 yuan / kg, up 0.2 yuan / kg compared with the beginning of September, rising 0.28 yuan / kg compared with the same period last year. < /p >
< p > the purpose of temporary purchasing and storage policy is to normalize the measures of temporarily collecting and storing lint in the main producing areas, announce the purchase and storage price ahead of schedule, and open up and store the stock after the new cotton is listed. The cotton stored in the market can be put in time when the market needs, so as to stabilize the market expectation of cotton producers, operators and cotton enterprises, protect the interests of cotton growers and ensure the market supply. However, in 2012, because of the high domestic cotton prices and the limited quota of cotton imported from the country, many enterprises in China began to import cotton yarn in large quantities. The price of imported cotton yarn was even cheaper than that of domestic cotton, which would undoubtedly lead to a more chaotic market and a far cry from the original intention of stabilizing cotton production in the country. Insiders say that the long and serious hang up of cotton prices at home and abroad will eventually jeopardize the interests of cotton farmers. It is suggested that China's cotton purchase and storage policy be adjusted, and cotton farmers should be directly compensated to ensure the enthusiasm of cotton growers. < /p >
< p > although many textile enterprises call for adjusting China's cotton purchase and storage policy, it is estimated that the probability of continuing to implement temporary cotton purchase and storage policy in 2013 will be greater, and it will be determined before planting cotton in 2013. < /p >
< p > < strong > 2012: a small amount of storage is cold, < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > 2013: dumping and storage may be matched with sliding tax quotas < /strong > /p >
< p > September 3, 2012 ~9 month 29, China reserve cotton management corporation put in part of the cotton in the national cotton trading market. Due to the weaker demand for cotton in textile enterprises, the cautious attitude of enterprises, the more stringent payment conditions for auction of cotton reserves, and the lack of financial strength of some enterprises with purchasing demand, the turnover rate of the dumping and storage is not as good as expected, and the transaction price is also mild. < /p >
< p > into 2013, because most of the cotton has entered the national reserve, the circulation of cotton in the market, especially the medium and high grade cotton is not much. Therefore, throwing about 8000000 tons of cotton stocks has become inevitable. The national development and Reform Commission confirmed that it would put cotton reserves into the market in the near future to meet the needs of textile enterprises. China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the national cotton trading market issued a notice in January 7th to advance the qualification examination of participating cotton auction sale enterprises. The number of enterprises eligible for bidding and the number of bidders participating in the auction will be examined and approved by the China Cotton Textile Industry Association. To prevent "spinning cotton", the maximum number of bidders participating in the enterprise before March 31, 2013 should not exceed 2 months' cotton consumption, and the reserve cotton is only for self use, not for sale. {page_break} < /p >
< p > the details of relevant policies have become the focus of attention because of the specific mode and time of dumping and storage, and many conjectures have also been aroused. With information disclosure, the large framework of dumping and storage has basically come into being, that is to follow the principle of "3: 1" to tie up the quota of imported cotton for throwing and storing. The price of throwing and storing is 19000 yuan / ton, and the selling price is 1 million 500 thousand tons. If this scheme is finally implemented, it will be thrown aside. < /p >
< p > according to the US cotton import CIF price of 85 cents / pound, the dumping price is 19000 yuan / ton to estimate if 3 tons of cotton are sold for 1 tons, the cotton price will be 17943 yuan / ton. The form of tying is equivalent to reducing the price of filming and storing cotton in disguised form, which is conducive to attracting textile enterprises to participate in auction and improving the turnover rate. Relevant analysts believe that the government's intentions are very clear, that is, through the tying quota to promote the import of foreign cotton, so as to raise the international cotton price, and then reduce the domestic cotton price by throwing cotton in the form of storage. However, whether this form of throwing and storing can play a role, depends on the final effect. However, the narrowing of cotton prices between inside and outside is a major trend. < /p >
< p > if the national cotton store sells 3 million tons, with 1 million tons of quota and 4 million tons of cotton supply, according to the current textile enterprise's cotton consumption, it should be enough for the 6~8 months' cotton demand. Overall, cotton supply was loose in 2013. < /p >
< p > < strong > 2012: cotton imports increased significantly, < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > 2013: import controlled or sharply declined < /strong > < /p >
< p > import volume of cotton reached a new high in 2012. 1~11 imports 4 million 606 thousand tons, an increase of 2 million 33 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 79.0%., of which 1~10 imports amounted to $10 billion 127 million, an increase of 55.2% over the same period last year, and the average price of imported cotton was 2356 US dollars / ton, about 14843 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic cotton price of 4500 yuan / ton. < /p >
Since P, 2004, China has implemented quota management measures for cotton imports. Cotton spinning enterprises must apply if they want to get imported cotton. The quotas for import cotton include two parts of 1% tariff quota and sliding tax quota. According to statistics, the cotton import quota of nearly 3 million tons was issued in 2012, including
894 thousand tons of tariff quotas and 200 million tons of sliding tax quotas. In the past two years, the total quota of cotton import quotas issued in China was about 3 million 600 thousand tons. < /p >
< p > by the end of 2012, the national development and Reform Commission formulated the tariff quota quota, application conditions and distribution principles of grain and cotton imports in 2013, stipulating that the quota of cotton imports in China in 2013 is 894 thousand tons, and the proportion of state-owned trade 33%. is required to meet three conditions for textile enterprises applying for import quota of cotton: first, it must be a state trading enterprise, and second must be
In 2012, enterprises with import actual achievements should be third cotton spinning enterprises with spinning equipment reaching more than 50 thousand spindles. It is reported that some textile enterprises have received notice of cotton import quota in 2013. < /p >
< p > because the state has higher requirements and less quantity for the application of the 1% tariff quota application, therefore, for the vast majority of textile enterprises, the issuance of cotton quasi tax quota has a greater impact on them. What we are more concerned about is the number of cotton slip tax quotas in 2013. < /p >
< p > analysts say that due to the implementation of the dumping and storage policy, the amount of tax quota granted in 2013 may be lower than that in 2012. If so, foreign cotton imports will be effectively curbed in 2013 and imported cotton will be greatly reduced. < /p >
< p > at the same time, the Ministry of Finance recently announced that the calculation method of the rate of 2013 cotton < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > sliding tax < /a > has been adjusted. From the point of view of the calculation, the cotton price quoted by 86~50.59 cents / pound will be increased by 200~470 yuan / ton after the sliding price is adjusted, and the increase will increase gradually with the decrease of cotton price, and the highest increase will be about 5%. The adjustment of the slip tax rate method has a significant effect on the promotion of cotton prices in some price ranges, and the digestion ability of enterprises is more tested. < /p >
< p > cotton import is expected to fall sharply in 2013 because of quota restrictions and adjustment of sliding tax rates. < /p >