Emerging Markets Will Become A Booster For China'S Foreign Trade To Achieve Its 8% Growth Target.

The US economic outlook is not yet clear, the European debt crisis is deteriorating again, and the recovery of traditional market demand is waiting for some time. How will China's foreign trade 8% growth target be achieved in 2013? emerging market In particular, the Latin American and ASEAN markets, which have always been brilliant, have become popular.

With the increasing number of trade remedies from emerging markets, a few industries are competing with "made in China" in the international market. Under such a background, can emerging markets add strength to China's foreign trade to achieve its 8% growth target?

　 Sino Latin American economy and Trade: adjusting ahead

In recent years, the trade between China and Latin America has been developing continuously. The volume of bilateral trade has increased rapidly from US $15 billion 10 years ago to nearly US $200 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 28%.

However, after the opening of 2013, the Latin American region launched its intensive campaign against China. Trade The relief measures have cast a shadow over the good growth of the Sino Latin American economy and trade. Statistics show that since March, there have been at least 6 trade remedies involving China in many Latin American countries, including Argentina and Mexico, involving products including synthetic fibers, pencils, aluminum extruded pieces, glasses and so on.

"Latin American countries have increased their trade remedy cases in China since 2012." Wu Guoping, director of the Latin American Economic Research Office of the Latin American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the International Business Daily reporter. He further judged: "Sino Latin American economy and trade will enter a stage of adjustment and development. Blowout growth is no longer sustainable. The balanced growth under structural adjustment will be the main keynote of Sino Latin American trade in 2013."

Wu Guoping has two reasons: first, with China's structural adjustment in 2013, the economic growth rate has shifted from a high growth period to a steady growth period, and the demand for traditional resources in Latin America and other countries has declined. The two is that the products exported to Latin American countries are mainly mechanical equipment, chemical industry, and so on. Spin Low quality manufactured goods, such as light industry, have formed a strong competitive pressure on the manufacturing industry in Latin America. Because of the dual considerations of stabilizing employment and protecting domestic industries, these countries inevitably "protect themselves" and thereby affect China's exports to Latin America.

Against this background, Wu Guoping believes that the Sino Latin American trade in 2013 will be adjusted in order to achieve trade balance and reduce China's favorable balance in Latin America. Wu Guoping suggested that Latin American countries could expand their export products to China, including specialty foods, luxury goods, natural high-grade stones, etc. China will increase the output of high value-added products, and also seek appropriate adjustments within the industrial chain to maximize the industrial chain. "Only by adjusting the structure as soon as possible can we achieve the goal of a breakthrough of 400 billion US dollars in the next 5 years when the premier Wen Jiabao proposed in 2012." Wu Guoping bluntly said.

　 China ASEAN: competition is not a problem.

The bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN reached 400 billion 100 million US dollars in 2012, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year, reaching a record high. China has become ASEAN's largest trading partner. At present, ASEAN has become an important source of attracting foreign investment in China, and is the first choice for Chinese enterprises to invest overseas. By the end of 2012, two-way investment between China and ASEAN totaled US $100 billion 700 million, and China has become the fourth largest source of foreign investment in ASEAN.

Li Guanghui, vice president of the International Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that since the financial crisis, the growth of China's and ASEAN's economic growth and the establishment of the China ASEAN free trade area have jointly created bright data for China ASEAN trade.

After 2013, Li Guanghui predicted that, on the basis of the complementary trade structure between the two countries, that is, ASEAN exports fruits and vegetables and resource products to China, China will export technology and related products to ASEAN, and combine the economic growth prospects of China and ASEAN, and China's trade with ASEAN will continue to grow at a high speed in the future.

Li Guanghui believes that with the 2012 China ASEAN agreement on the implementation of the second batch of specific commitments of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement, the effect will continue. Trade in services will continue to be the main highlight of China ASEAN trade growth.

As for the current transfer of some orders to the market, the position of China's "world factory" is being challenged by ASEAN countries, Li Guanghui does not agree. He pointed out that eliminating backward production capacity is an inevitable rule, and the trend of economic globalization is increasingly obvious. At present, whether ASEAN market or "made in China" has long been out of the "regional" label, the growth trend of China ASEAN trade will not be affected.