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China'S Export Textile Enterprises Are In A Dismal Position Because Of The Appreciation Of RMB.

2013/6/24 20:55:00 34

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Textile Industry Textile Trade Textile Export Textile Enterprise

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 as the general manager of the Shaoxing county a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > textile > /a > Co., Ltd., for a long time, the textile industry in a depressed state has made Wang Jianbo very familiar with finding orders. At the spinning fair that was not long ago, Wang Jianbo led the team to pick up new customer orders in Central Africa and South America. 
 but the problem is that there is no long-term order in the latest orders. Wang Jianbo described to reporters: "customers dare not make long orders, and enterprises dare not take orders." 
Behind the P order problem is the increasingly fierce currency war. As the rate of exchange rises too fast, the profit of export enterprises has been evaporating this year. So far, the RMB has appreciated more than 1.85% against the US dollar, an increase of 8 times last year, and the highest value since 2005. According to Foshan a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile industry < /a > Secretary General Wu Haoliang estimates that this year alone Foshan textile and garment industry, the profit of evaporation is as high as 92 million 500 thousand yuan. 
 the most direct way to speak with data. HSBC has just released its initial PMI value to 48.3 in June, once again below market expectations and a 9 month low. However, for a long time, we haven't heard much news about macro policy. 
 unsightly data /p >
 "if the exchange rate rises one point, we will earn less than 20%." Cao manager, Sales Department of Foshan super elegant toy factory, recently said publicly. The low profits have greatly affected the production of factories. In Foshan, several ceramic factories have simply stopped working, upgrading production lines, and turning to high-end products. 
Wang Jianbo, who is already doing high-end products, is also a headache for exchange rate rise. P According to him, "the textile industry is a labor-intensive industry. In recent years, the impact of rising labor costs has been very large. Recently, cotton prices have been hanging upside down at home and abroad. But now, because of the impact of exchange rate, foreign countries dare not place orders, and dare not take orders from home. The situation of the textile industry is even worse than that of the financial crisis. 
 not only is the textile industry, but the whole small and medium-sized manufacturing industry is more than economists expect. 
In the first quarter of this year, HSBC PMI reached an average of 51.5. In May, HSBC PMI ended at 49.2, unexpectedly dropping below 50 and falling to its lowest level in 8 months in P. It is generally predicted that PMI will remain at a level close to May in June, with a forecast average of 49.1. 
In June 20th P, HSBC PMI announced its initial value of 48.3, down 0.9 percentage points to 9 month lows, which is also weaker than the historical average. Historical data show that in 2006-2012 years, HSBC PMI fell 0.5 percentage points on average in June. It shows that after the elimination of seasonal factors, the manufacturing industry is declining. 
 points out, output, new orders, new export orders, employment, procurement volume and other items have dropped. 
The new orders index fell to 47.1, the lowest in 10 months, which is the most important factor in dragging down the overall PMI index. The new export order is only 44, the lowest since the financial tsunami in March 2009, and the output index dropped 1.9 percentage points to 48.8, significantly lower than last month's 50.7, also lower than the historical average level, the lowest point in 8 months. The output has slowed down sharply, demand has fallen below the ups and downs, the price is under pressure, the industrial price is expected to decline in June, and the employment index has also dropped to the lowest level in 10 months, 47.9, P. 
In terms of domestic demand, HSBC believes recent data show that domestic demand has been weak, and the rebound in infrastructure investment has not offset the slowdown in manufacturing investment, P said. Car sales in the mainland continue to decline, and job market weakness is likely to further affect wage income and drag down consumption. In terms of external demand, the negative impact of RMB appreciation on exports continues. 
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China and Asia Pacific joint head of economic research, "micro-blog" [P] believes that the future "a href=" http://www.91se91.com "manufacturing" /a "activities continue to bear pressure. 
 macro modulation policy no action 
In the two quarter, the HSBC PMI average of 49.3 was not only weaker than that in the first quarter, but also lower than the ups and downs line, coupled with the decline in power generation and coal consumption since June. Jiang Chao, chief analyst of Haitong Securities (10.27, -0.12, -1.15%) macro bond, believes that the risk of economic stall is increasing. 
 "because the price is weak, the pressure and performance pressure of the two quarter is bigger. Data show that the number of power generation and consumption data has slipped in June, and the utilization of excavators has also deteriorated. The inventory level of many industries is at a high level, and the price of bulk commodities such as copper and aluminum has been sharply adjusted, which may lead to the phenomenon of active inventory. Cao Shuishui, a research center of China Securities Securities, pointed out. 
 because the two quarter economy is weaker than expected, HSBC will reduce the actual GDP growth rate in 2013 and the 2014 growth rate respectively from 8.2% and 8.4% to 7.4% and 7.4% respectively. In addition, HSBC has downgraded China's stock market from overweight to neutral. 
 "because the Chinese government now emphasizes balanced growth and market reform, the Chinese government can tolerate GDP growth in the 7%-7.5% range, so there will be no strong measures to boost economic growth unless the economic growth rate has a risk of 7%." HSBC economist pointed out. 
 however, it seems that the possibility that GDP's growth rate will fall below 7% is also increasing. According to Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura Securities, China's economy has a 30% chance of less than 7% in the two quarter. 
 February 2012 and May, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve rate for the two time and lowered the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate in June 8th. This is the first time the central bank has cut interest rates in the past 4 years. Then, less than 1 months later, the central bank announced again that it had lowered the benchmark interest rate since July 6th. In addition to lowering interest rates and lowering the accuracy, repurchase and reverse repurchase frequently occur, releasing huge liquidity. 
 2013, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > monetary policy < /a > has not yet been significantly adjusted. Statistics show that in the first two weeks of June, the liquidity of China's interbank market suddenly tightened, and the 7 day repurchase rate rose to more than 6% after a consolidation of nearly 3% over a year. This is the highest level since the Spring Festival in 2012. Under the influence of tight funds, the yields of all kinds of bonds in the market have risen to varying degrees. In June 14th, the issuance of treasury bonds and even the market liquidity was too tight, there was a partial "flow" status (not yet planned to be issued). 
 however, market participants pointed out that from the latest issuance data of the central bank, the issuance of interest and the interest rate remain unchanged may indicate that the central bank has no intention of changing its prudent monetary policy which has always been advocated, and will continue to stabilize the market's attitude towards the tight expectation of the capital side. 
 "reform policies and measures need to be implemented from time to time, and therefore the reform measures that will enhance the effectiveness of medium and long-term growth may have a negative impact on demand in the short term. We expect that the economy will rebound on this basis with the gradual emergence of the reform effect" in 2015. Qu Hongbin said. 
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