Experts Explain Four Major Economic Hotspots In Zhejiang

The Zhejiang economic semi annual report, which was announced not long ago, allowed the parties to have a general understanding of the steady growth of Zhejiang's economy.

So, how do we interpret some key data and what will be the economic trend in the second half?

Yesterday afternoon, deputy director of the Provincial Bureau of statistics, Wang Chieh, spokesman of the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of development and reform, and Zhuo Yongliang, director of the provincial development and Reform Institute, visited the evening news and the online live broadcast column jointly organized by Zhejiang online.

About income: why don't we feel that we have not earned so many friends? Hot question: income is our concern. There is a data in the whole country. In the first half of this year, the income of urban workers increased by 18%, but we feel that wage increases are not so high. Why?

Wang Chieh: what I want to emphasize here is that the average wage and per capita income announced by our statistics department are averages, which are often different from the actual feelings of many people. This is a normal phenomenon.

In addition, much of the increase in residents' income was offset by rising prices. As in the first half of this year, the disposable income of urban residents increased by 10.6% in the first half of this year, which was nominal growth. After the deduction of price factors, the actual growth rate was 3.6%.

At the same time, the scope, channels and projects of residents' expenditure have also expanded, such as housing, social security, health care, education and other reforms, which greatly increased the immediate and expected expenditure of residents. This may make some people feel less income.

In addition, there is a gap between the actual income growth of different regions and different groups. The statistics department has the responsibility to survey the data more accurately, which is closer to the feelings of most people.

About CPI: the price rises in the second half of the year will be a bit warmer. "Now the food is rising. How will the CPI go in the second half?"

In addition, the pressure of rising prices of raw materials is still relatively large. Will it pmit to CPI?

Wang Chieh: curbing inflation is the primary task of our current economic work.

Zhejiang's consumer prices rose by 7.4% in the first half of this year.

First of all, inflation is a national problem. The CPI boom is mainly due to the rapid growth of investment in the whole country, resulting in excessive demand. In fact, Zhejiang's investment growth in recent years is not fast. Zhejiang's CPI is not high throughout the country (the first half of the year is 7.9%).

Secondly, as far as structure is concerned, the increase in consumer prices is mainly due to rising food prices (in the first half of this year, food prices rose by 19.7%, and the rate of increase in CPI rose by 82%).

Again, the current price rise is to a considerable extent the impact of last year's tail factor.

Well, for the price of CPI in the second half of the year, I think there are some positive factors.

From the two quarter of this year, CPI continued to fall, rising 6.4% in June, the lowest since this year. This trend is expected to continue in the second half of this year.

Of course, the rise in international oil prices and the price of steel, ore and coal will have a certain effect on CPI.

About Enterprises: Zhejiang enterprises did not appear "bankruptcy wind". Netizens asked: "I am a partner in a foreign trade company. This year, it is obvious that business is hard to do. Many friends in the circle feel the same way. Is it true that the business failure outside is widespread?

Zhuo Yong Liang: we should treat difficulties objectively, and the collapse of enterprises is a partial phenomenon.

Although the proportion of Zhejiang's loss making enterprises accounted for all enterprises increased compared with that in 2005, it is certain that the loss making enterprises did not show a widespread deterioration. The deterioration of the financial situation only existed in a small number of enterprises.

This difficulty is also temporary.

Taking 1 to May as an example, the profit growth rate of 20 industries in 34 manufacturing industries is faster than the average 14.1%. This is a typical polarization and a pient structural pain.

Wang Chieh: under the situation that the international and domestic economic environment is very complex and increasingly severe, Zhejiang enterprises have encountered unprecedented difficulties in their production and operation.

But what I want to point out is that the current proportion of the failure of SMEs in Zhejiang has been exaggerated.

There are three reasons for this: first, the survey data from these regions and small samples do not represent the overall situation of the whole province.

Second, as far as our statistics department is concerned, the so-called enterprise failure is not as serious as some people think.

For example, enterprises below the scale of the province, 13.32 at the end of 6, 12.91 in the same period last year, and 655 thousand and 900 households at the end of 6 last year, 652 thousand and 300 households at the end of this year.

The losses of more than 50 thousand industrial enterprises above designated size were also relatively stable, with a deficit of 21% at the end of 4 this year, 19.6% in May and 18.8% at the end of 6.

Third, because of the increasing difficulty in production and operation of enterprises, there are indeed some small and medium-sized enterprises that are not in normal production this year, or even in a semi shutdown state. This is the two different concept of business failure and can not be confused.

About employment: will industrial upgrading reduce job opportunities? Now I want to advocate industrial upgrading and replace the traditional industries with high-tech industries. My industry is processing and manufacturing, labor intensive, and will many people be unemployed after upgrading to high-tech industries?

Zhuo Yong Liang: this will be a gradual process, not avalanche, so it has little impact on employment.

Of course, we should also see positive factors. For example, the rapid growth of labor wages will lead to the development of the third industry. Therefore, I expect that the national employment growth in the future is likely to remain stable.

Wang Chieh: labor intensive industries will also gradually improve, and we can pform traditional manufacturing with high and new technology industries. Therefore, I feel that only advanced technology and no traditional industries, this pformation and employment is not a simple contradiction. Of course, structural pformation may produce structural contradictions, which need to improve labor force, improve skills and knowledge to adapt to changes.