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National Cotton Situation Analysis Will Lead The Lecture Record.

2013/9/26 11:11:00 25

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Cotton Situation Analysis Association Of China Cotton Association Of China Cotton

Du Min: the output of the whole country is about 6 million 400 thousand tons, /p >

on the two eight session of the China Cotton Association, Du Min, director of the agricultural research center of the Ministry of agriculture, introduced the situation of cotton production this year, and put forward the issues that should be focused on in the future market.

from the production point of view, the Agricultural Research Center monitored 250 cotton producing counties, and this year the area decreased by 4-8.4%, to 67 million 400 thousand mu.

The yield per unit area is affected by the South drought and the northern waterlogging. The seed cotton per mu is about 250 kilograms, and the broken seed cotton is less than 88 kilograms, and the total output is about 5900000 tons. In addition to the known ambush part of Xinjiang, the output of the whole country is about 6 million 400 thousand tons.

From the market situation, there are two points to be paid attention to in the following market: first, despite the recent improvement in some indicators in some countries, there are still many uncertainties in the international market. Two, although the domestic industrial indicators have increased, the textile < /a > the operating rate is not very optimistic, and last year the stock pressure is high, the pressure of price rise is high, and the domestic demand is cautiously optimistic after the market.

there are several problems to be discussed in the new year: first, how to determine the policy of the later storage and storage period; we should prepare for the rainy day and study the policy as soon as possible; two, statistical problems, there is no obvious breakthrough in cotton cultivation technology, but the yield per unit area has been increasing.

Xiang Yu: < a href= "http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/Matertial/show/default.aspx > > cotton < /a > production area and yield decrease /p >

since last year, the cotton market has been depressed, and the cost of labor has declined, affecting the enthusiasm of cotton growers. The cotton area has declined for two years. It is estimated that this year's cotton planting area will be 65 million 850 thousand mu, a decrease of nearly 4 million mu over the previous year, with an estimated output of 6 million 315 thousand tons, a decrease of 337 thousand tons over the previous year.

this year, in addition to the reduction of area, the main disadvantage factor of cotton production is climate.

The low temperature and early high temperature and drought in 7 and August affected cotton yield.

In 3 and April, the temperature in the early period of sowing in the Yangtze River Basin and the the Yellow River River Basin was generally low, and the sowing date was generally postponed. In 7 and August, some areas in the the Yellow River basin were attacked by severe convective weather such as torrential rain, hail and strong winds. The high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River Basin lasted for a long time, and the intensity of the drought was heavier than that of last year and the same period last year. The weather in the northwest inland cotton region was basically normal. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang was growing well and the extent of the disaster was limited. The main reason for the growth of the small part of the cotton was less than that of the whole year from August to early September.

this year, the incidence of pests and diseases in cotton fields in China is not heavy.

At present, most cotton regions in China have entered the stage of large-scale harvesting. The main tasks of the agricultural departments at all levels are to strengthen the technical guidance services, deal with the disaster weather, and implement the key measures to ensure the smooth harvest of cotton farmers. P

Gao Fang: < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp > national cotton situation analysis < /a > /strong > /p >

China Cotton Association held the two eight Executive Council and the national cotton situation analysis conference in Beijing today. Gao Fang, executive vice president of the China Cotton Association, analyzed the cotton situation in China.

Gao Fang first briefly reviewed the cotton situation in 2012.

According to the actual situation of Xinjiang warehousing and the situation of public inspection, the China Cotton Association has adjusted the output of Xinjiang in 2012 to 4 million 500 thousand tons, 7 million 730 thousand tons in the whole country and 7 million 500 thousand tons in various departments.

The final number of storage and storage was 6 million 620 thousand tons, of which Xinjiang accounted for 64%, 4 million 210 thousand tons of cotton reserves were put into storage, and storage and storage were the highest level in history.

The import of 4 million 400 thousand tons in 2012, down 19% from the same period last year, is still a record high, and the additional import volume has increased 4.6 times compared with the same period.

The import of cotton yarn increased significantly, and 1 million 940 thousand tons in 2012, an increase of 48% over the same period last year. The substitution effect for cotton is obvious. The cotton yarn import substitution, the yarn production increase slowed down, the absolute number increased, the growth rate dropped significantly, the growth of chemical fiber increased, and the substitution of cotton increased.

Textile a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > export growth picked up.

Commodity cotton turnover inventory dropped considerably.

The price of cotton is very stable, basically unchanged from the previous year, and the decline in international prices has slowed down. This shows that China's policy of purchasing and storage has great support for international and domestic markets.

The spot price basically coincides with the price put in, indicating that the stocking cotton has not suppressed the market.

Gao Fang then looked ahead to the cotton market in 2013.

Cotton production declined in 2013, demand remained unchanged, and reserve policy continued.

The statistics showed that the cotton planting area was less than 70 million mu, and the meteorological conditions were better than the whole year.

From the middle of September to the middle of September, the climate suitability of cotton production in the whole country is suitable. The departments predict cotton output will be about 7 million tons, and the China Cotton Association will predict 6 million 930 thousand tons in the future.

From the perspective of demand, global supply is slightly larger than demand, and the pformation of textile industry to the right direction has not deteriorated further. Domestic demand is similar to that of the previous year, at around 8 million 500 thousand tons.

This year, we continue to implement the temporary purchasing and storage policy. The new national standard has been launched, and the China Cotton Association has made a quality difference table to standardize the storage of key enterprises.

The policy led market structure has not changed. This year, the funds will be well prepared for storage and quality control.

The situation of reserve cotton will be studied according to the market situation, and the quota will be changed in a timely manner.

Macroeconomic regulation and control policies will continue to improve and improve.

In September 9th, the purchase and storage started, and 20 thousand tons to 25 days, mainly in Xinjiang.

From the initial stage of the acquisition of new cotton, the purchase price is higher, and the cotton farmers are reluctant to sell. They are in a stalemate. The profits of the enterprises are thin and the market is cautious. In October, when the new cotton was listed on a large scale, it was necessary to prevent the sale of cotton.

Judging from the picking sale, as of September 15th, the national harvest rate was 21.6%, and the sales progress was 3.4%, the average selling price was 8.49 yuan per kilogram.

Recommend member enterprises: first, backbone enterprises take the lead in purchasing, play a leading role in the model; two, execute the "Interim Measures for the storage of large single stores" in cotton enterprises strictly; three, grasp the quality and cost; four, ensure the safe storage of stored cotton in the storage storehouse; five, make suggestions for improving the macro-control policies.

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Zhang Xianbin: the urgent matter is to implement the temporary storage and purchase policy .

the two eight session of the China Cotton Association and the national cotton situation analysis conference, Zhang Xianbin, director of the national development and Reform Commission's economic and trade division, explained the current concerns in the cotton market.

1 is the most urgent task to implement the temporary storage and storage policy. It mainly includes three aspects: first, it attaches great importance to the quality of cotton, and the relevant measures are put into place; two, in the interests of protecting the cotton farmers, the implementation is in line with the purchase price; three, we must strictly guard against the problem of "turning cotton" and rise to the legal level, in addition to economic penalties, we should also bear the criminal responsibility.

two is about the issue of the storage of cotton. The time of release depends on the market resources. The parties concerned are closely monitoring, and the timing is decided by the relevant departments.

The premise of storing cotton is to fully meet the needs of spinning enterprises, and prices are determined according to the advantages of textile market and market stability.

three is about the cotton import quota next year. After the production and marketing situation is clear, we will study it again.

On the allocation of quotas, we will also study more equitable and fair issues.

Cao Xuejun: the textile industry is running smoothly and well /p >

at the two eight session of the China Cotton Association and the national cotton situation analysis conference, Cao Xuejun, director of the consumer products division of the Ministry of industry and information technology, introduced the operation and development trend of the textile industry since the beginning of this year.

Since the implementation of the P cotton purchase and storage policy, cotton prices have remained stable, which has a certain impact on the cotton textile industry. But this year, the adaptability of textile enterprises has been improved, the whole industry has been running smoothly, and the main economic indicators have improved.

Textile enterprises through technological innovation and structural adjustment, the whole market has three characteristics: first, the industry has entered the adjustment stage this year, the production growth rate has dropped, the output of major products has dropped to 1 digits, and the output of cotton yarn has dropped by 2.8%; two, the textile structure adjustment process is speeding up, the proportion of domestic demand has increased, the growth of traditional products has dropped, industrial textiles have been developing rapidly, the substitution of chemical fibers in the fiber raw material structure is obvious, the use ratio exceeds 80%; three, the market adjustment function is obvious, and the market resources are concentrated to the dominant enterprises.

Domestic demand is decreasing, but online shopping is not within the scope of statistics. Last year, 300 billion of online shopping textiles accounted for 30% of total online shopping, and mode adjustment had a relatively large impact on the whole industry.

this year and December, the demand for domestic and foreign markets is relatively stable. The external demand, the US and the EU are better than last year, and exports have increased substantially. The year-end is obviously better than the previous year, and the main business income of the whole industry has increased by about 12%.

The indicators of cotton spinning enterprises are significantly better than last year, or better than the average level of the textile industry. Although the price difference of cotton is not obvious from all indicators, the potential impact should be paid attention to. First, investment in cotton textile new construction projects dropped by 20%, showing a certain impact on the industry confidence; two, the continuous strengthening of cotton substitution, including the substitution of cotton and the growth of imported cotton yarn; three, the trend of cotton spinning ability shifting outwards.