Hai Lan'S Home To Expand Its Store By Leveraging Household Registration Reform

Target price of 9.02 yuan, the first coverage to give "overweight" rating. We predict that the EPS of Keno technology in the past 2013-2015 years is 0.32, 0.41 and 0.52 yuan, respectively. Brand clothing At this stage, the average valuation is 20 times PE of the 2013 performance. In view of the rapid expansion period of Hai Lan's home, a certain premium is given, corresponding to 22 times PE in 2014, and the target price is 9.02 yuan. The first coverage is given to the "overweight" rating.

Leveraging household registration reform Hai Lan's home At present, the volume of shops can continue to expand at a high speed. According to the experience value, there are about 4500 stores in the mass clothing brand, and the operating efficiency has dropped. We reckon that the location of the middle and low end male consumers' market segments will help the household reform. In the current number of stores, we can continue to expand the 2807 stores, reaching 5566, of which 2014 and 2015 will reach 19% and 16% respectively.

　　 Household registration system The consumption of migrant workers has been nearly doubled. At present, the income of migrant workers has exceeded that of urban residents. However, due to the lack of social security consumption capacity, their clothing expenditure is 990 yuan, which is only half of that of urban residents. If the household registration reform can be completed, the consumption habits of migrant workers will be converged to urban residents, and their clothing expenditure will reach 1858 yuan, which is nearly doubled compared with the current expenditure.

The reform of household registration into the third plenary session has become a catalyst to accelerate the release of consumption power. The middle and low end market positioning has made Hai Lan's home a major beneficiary. The third plenary session decided to "promote the citizenization of agricultural transfer population and gradually transform qualified agricultural transfer population into urban residents", and the process of household registration reform may exceed expectations.

The agricultural transfer population is mainly middle-aged and low income middle-aged men. There are few clothing brands that meet the needs of the group. The location of the middle and low end middle-aged men in the three or four line of Hai Lan home will get the favor of the group and bring a surprise to the expansion of its own store.

Risk warning: the company's management capability can not meet the requirements, and the urbanization process is lower than expected.

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Positioning "men's Wardrobe" let people remember Hai Lan's home. In every store, the four seasons of clothing for adult men from top to bottom, from inside to outside, from formal dress to leisure are displayed one by one. The traditional "man to man" shopping guide mode is completely abandoned, and all products are sorted out according to varieties, sizes and specifications, and consumers choose clothes according to the shopping guide.

Behind this service is a completely new business model. In the industrial park of Hai Lan's home, the research and development building and logistics park which Zhou Jianping called "headquarters brain" and "nerve center" are facing each other. In the entire production and marketing process, Hai Lan's home has mastered the upstream product planning and brand management, and suppliers from all over the country have concentrated their products on the logistics park and then sent them to the stores nationwide, and the "garment production" links in the middle have been outsourced.