Glad To Import Worries, Export RMB Exchange Rate Innovation High

< p > statistics show that since the beginning of the year, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > RMB < /a > has risen 2.53% against the US dollar, becoming one of the most powerful currencies in Asia this year.

In fact, since December, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen. In December 4th and December 6th, two new exchange rates have been set up, including 6.13 in December 6th and 6.1232 in December 6th.

In December, the 9 daily 6.1130 broke through the 6.12 pass.

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< p > however, the pace of appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has not stopped.

In December 10th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1114, up 16 basis points from the previous trading day.

In December 11th, the interbank foreign exchange market's central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1100, a record of 4 consecutive days.

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< p > < strong > reasons: < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/ > > economy > /a > stabilizing capital arbitrage capital > /strong > /p >

< p > when it comes to the appreciation of RMB after entering the December, the chief economist of the Industrial Bank, Lu commissar, said that since the beginning of this year, the continuous influx of arbitrage capital has accelerated the appreciation of RMB. The three quarter economic data show that China's economy has been steadily improving, which has further pushed up the expectation of appreciation, leading to more inflow of arbitrage capital.

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< p > the business daily reporter noted that in order to curb the false trade financing behavior without the background of real pactions and prevent cross-border flows of abnormal foreign exchange funds, the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the Circular of the State Administration of foreign exchange on improving the foreign exchange management of banking trade financing in December 7th.

Lu commissar pointed out that the foreign exchange administration issued a document to crack down on false trade. On the one hand, because of the high foreign exchange reserves, China's exports were relatively weak, indicating that the false trade was on the rise. On the other hand, because of the large spread between China and foreign countries, some overseas institutions used the interest spread arbitrage to induce hot money to flow into the country in large quantities.

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Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities Research and development center, said in an interview with a Commercial Daily reporter that the main reason for the appreciation of the RMB is the influence of market supply and demand factors and the intensification of foreign exchange inflow. P

Another reason is that the central bank loosened its control over the middle price of the RMB exchange rate, paving the way for exchange rate reform in the first half of next year, and expanding the fluctuation range of exchange rate, so as to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/ > > export > /a >: some enterprises reduce three to 50% < /strong > /p >

< p > Bai Ming, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said that the pressure of RMB appreciation has caused great pressure on enterprises, and the real effective exchange rate has risen sharply. At the same time, the currency of emerging market countries, which is the driving force of China's export growth, has depreciated, which has imposed a superposition effect on China's real exchange rate and exacerbated the difficulty of export.

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< p > "since the beginning of this year, the clothing and textile industry has been squeezed frequently, and the appreciation of the renminbi has undoubtedly led to an immediate fall in the export business."

Yang Yi, director of Chongqing Yu Zi AI Clothing Co., Ltd., in an interview with a Commercial Daily reporter, said that in general, the average gross profit margin of foreign trade fabric clothing orders was 3%~5%.

However, due to the rising cost of labor and accessories this year, plus the profits of middlemen (Note: the majority of garment enterprises in Chongqing adopt the mode of middleman's agent export), combined with various factors, roughly estimated that RMB's appreciation will be 1%, the export volume of Chongqing garment enterprises will lose 3%~4%.

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< p > "in our industry, at least half of the profits are eaten by the ever rising exchange rate."

Tang Fuqiang, chairman of Chongqing Julong cocoon silk Co., Ltd., told the business daily reporter that the main items are short bills and small bills. Long term orders will be added to the terms of the contract, and the time requirement for repayment will be more precise.

Nevertheless, we still can not get rid of the shadow of not making money.

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< p > "clothing enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the international trade value chain are extremely sensitive to exchange rate changes, and the impact of RMB appreciation is particularly obvious."

Li Yong, Secretary General of Chongqing textile and garment trade association, told the business daily that five or six years ago, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was around 8, and the industry was in good condition.

However, with the exchange rate entering the "6 era", every export of a batch of garments will result in a decrease in profits due to the exchange rate, or even more losses in exports.

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< p > "this year's performance is particularly evident. The export volume of many enterprises has dropped by at least 30%, and some enterprises have even reached 40% or 50%."

Li Yong said that for the small and medium-sized clothing enterprises whose strength is not strong enough, this "kan" is obviously not easy to cross.

As of the end of this year, some garment enterprises have suspended exports, or fought in the domestic market, or cross-border investment in other industries, "stick to less than 50%."

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< p > strong > Import: the import of technical equipment is much less than /strong > /p >

The appreciation of RMB P is not entirely useless. The appreciation of the renminbi also means an increase in purchasing power. The cost of travelling abroad and studying abroad has been reduced. For enterprises, the cost of introducing products, production lines and patent technology will also be reduced at this time.

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< p > "the cost of imports has dropped markedly in recent months."

Chongqing's Nine Dragons Paper Co., Ltd., a large importer in China, reproduces mainly by importing waste paper from Europe and the United States.

Yesterday, the manager of the Ministry of finance, Chiang Kai Shek, wrote accounts to the Commercial Daily reporters: in recent months, the import volume reached 45 thousand tons, and the amount was about 13 million US dollars, which was affected by the appreciation of the renminbi. "The average monthly import cost can be saved by US $1 million 100 thousand."

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"P > Chongqing Haide lasso company's foreign trade official told the business daily reporter that" after the appreciation of the renminbi, the import prices of many high-tech equipment will also decrease, so enterprises will accelerate the introduction of foreign high and new technology. "

The official said that this has played an important role in promoting the development of intensive mode and changing the extensive growth mode.

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< p > Huang Ming, vice president of DBS bank's Treasury market department, told reporters in an interview with the business daily that he had warned investors that there was no obvious factor for the depreciation of the renminbi. Therefore, the investment in Renminbi and related products is still appropriate. Basically, all kinds of products can be considered, depending on personal risk tolerance and preferences.

"For enterprising investors with strong risk tolerance, they can choose short-term speculation, but they do not recommend individual traders to make long lines."

At present, the expected rate of return on the investment of a variety of RMB financial products is "breaking six". For investors, it is still tempting to invest in Renminbi annual financial products.

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< p > reply < /p >.

< p > < strong > increase the added value of the product < /strong > /p >

< p > export enterprises should go out of "exchange rate anxiety" to pform and upgrade in the final analysis, so as to gain the initiative.

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"P", the head of marketing department of Chongqing weir silk Co., Ltd., said that at present, textiles are mainly concentrated in the middle and low end market, and their competitiveness is not enough. They are vulnerable to changes in the international market and exchange rate.

"At present, the company is developing innovative products to enter the high-end market."

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< p > "this year, the export volume of our independent intellectual property products reaches 42% of the total, 6 percentage points higher than last year, boosting the total export volume by 30%."

He Jiangyu, manager of Zong Shen marketing department, said that the number of independent research and development products will increase to 47% next year, reaching the "half of the scale".

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< p > the relevant person in charge of the foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Committee of the Municipal Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Commission said that in addition to using exchange rate tools to flexibly manage exchange rate risks, enterprises should not neglect the enhancement of internal skills training, so as to enhance export competitiveness. This competitiveness is inclusive of the competitiveness of product quality, technology and brand.

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< p > < strong > trend > /strong > < /p >.

< p > strong > RMB spot rate or "break six" < /strong > < /p >.

< p > for the future trend of RMB exchange rate, Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research of China Merchants Securities Research and development center, pointed out that the momentum of RMB appreciation has gradually shifted to international capital inflow caused by high interest rates at home and abroad this year. Under the background that the low interest rate situation is hard to change in the short term and the domestic interest rate center continues to move upward, there will still be a large appreciation pressure in the RMB in the short and medium term. The RMB spot exchange rate will have a potential of challenging 6 in the year.

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