Bernanke Is Stepping Down From The Fed To "Softly Withdraw From QE".

< p > > a > the Federal Reserve monetary policy conference < /a > has a dramatic scene. When the market has repeatedly ignored the Federal Reserve's efforts to reduce QE, when the majority of people do not have any hope for this meeting, the Federal Reserve has announced the start of the reduction of a QE "/a" scale. However, market participants also noted that the scale of the reduction is very limited, indicating that the Federal Reserve is still doubtful about the economic recovery and employment prospects and unwilling to act too fiercely. < /p >
< p > strong > unexpected and unexpected, < /strong > /p >
5 years after the start of "P > a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_x.asp "and" quantitative easing "/a, the Fed finally withdrew. On Wednesday evening, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, a > Bernanke < /a >, announced at a news conference that the size of the QE debt purchase scale will be reduced from 10 billion US dollars to 75 billion US dollars from January next year. This marks the beginning of the end of the unprecedented stimulus policy of the Federal Reserve. < /p >
< p > because the market has generally expected that the Federal Reserve will start to reduce QE from next March, so this meeting decided how much the market was surprised. Yang Delong, chief macroeconomic strategist of the southern fund, commented: "the Fed's gradual exit from QE is expected, and the timing of debt reduction is indeed earlier than expected." < /p >
< p > > Why do we choose to withdraw at this time point? There are three main reasons in the industry: < /p >
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, said that the resolution reflected to a large extent that the economic indicators such as employment, order index, GDP and so on in the US were rising well, because the Fed was more confident of the US economy going into the normal orbit. < /p >
< p > secondly, the scale of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is too large, which will bring potential negative effects over time. An associate researcher said that the low interest rate and even the real negative interest rate are unfavorable to the optimal allocation of social capital, which is why the United States needs to withdraw from quantitative easing policy. < /p >
< p > moreover, the US and the two parties have reached a budget agreement recently, which will help to eliminate the obstacles that the Federal Reserve starts to reduce the QE process. < /p >
Lu Jun, a senior gold analyst, said: "Bernanke is about to" retire ". At this point, we can finish a policy of our own policy, and it is also a good start and a good ending." P < /p >
< p > < strong > whether the successor will follow the gourd ladle "/strong > < /p >.
The difference between P and June is that the Fed has been very cautious this time, and has not forgotten to comfort the market after announcing the scale of QE. Bernanke said that if the US employment continues to grow as expected, the scale of next year's debt purchase may shrink at a prudent pace, and it is expected to end QE3 at the end of next year. < /p >
< p > for this statement, the chief economist of HSBC Greater China, < a > Qu Hong bin < /a >, thinks that the Federal Reserve "gently withdraw from QE" but still maintains ultra loose financial conditions. The aim is to lower the short-term interest rate and strengthen forward-looking guidance in a longer time to hedge the impact of QE exit in January next year. Qu Hongbin predicts that the US Federal Reserve will maintain ultra-low interest rates as long as the US unemployment rate remains above 6.5% and the expected inflation rate is less than 2.5%. Interest rates in 2015 and 2016 are lower than previously expected. < /p >
< p > of course, of course, the direction of the Fed's future policy depends more on the next president, Yellen. It is reported that the current Vice Chairman, a > Yellen "/a", will take over the Federal Reserve from February 1st. < /p >
< p > Bai Ming judged that after Yellen took charge of the Federal Reserve, he had to finish the "stall" of his predecessors first and had little room to implement his own ideas. With the gradual improvement of the US economy and the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing, it is estimated that in the second half of 2014, Yellen's monetary policy orientation can be seen more clearly. < /p >
< p > Lu Jun predicts that Yellen will continue a period of monetary policy during the Bernanke era as a transition. But on the whole, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve mainly depends on the US economy, unemployment rate and inflation. Therefore, whether Yellen will tighten monetary policy or continue to relax after taking office, will depend on the actual situation, and monetary policy may be fine-tuning at any time. < /p >
< p > < strong > market fluctuation is inevitable. < /strong > < /p >
< p > for the signal and effect of phasing out of QE, < a > debbond fund < /a > release report shows that we should treat dialectically: on the one hand, a slight reduction in the scale of debt purchase will lead to the rising market interest rate and the phased tension of liquidity; on the other hand, it also reflects the recovery of the US economy and the normalization of global financial market. < /p >
(P) the Fed's move has a positive impact on the developed market, but has a negative impact on emerging markets. The fund manager of Haitong believes that for the emerging market countries including China, although the QE recession has eliminated the risk of the US economic recovery interruption, there is indeed the risk of currency depreciation and capital phase outflow in the near future. Analysts expect that before the Spring Festival, domestic liquidity will be difficult to see obvious easing. In view of the tight funding at the end of the year, A shares will continue to adjust the trend of shocks. < /p >
< p > > from the performance of < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_x.asp > > foreign exchange market < /a >, after the announcement, the" a euro "fell to 83 points against the US dollar < /a >, the US dollar rose 91 points against the Swiss franc, the US dollar rose 160 points against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar fell 32 points against the US dollar, and the US dollar rose 95 points against the Canadian dollar. < /p >
The US dollar has strengthened against the main currencies, and the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has also dropped in P. On the 19 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1183, down 78 basis points from the previous trading day. < /p >
Zhou Guoping, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Development Research Center, issued a report warning that with the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing from the US next year, the US dollar will shift from weak to strong, thus attracting capital reflux. The international hot money may be changed again, or the domestic property market and stock market will be hit by P. In this regard, we should strengthen the tracking and monitoring of international capital flows, and further strengthen the dynamic supervision of securities, futures and other financial markets and real estate markets. < /p >
< p > the debbond fund's report is optimistic that the decision of the Fed will have a very limited impact on China, and there will be no massive outflow of international capital. The recent foreign exchange account has been maintained at around 400 billion yuan, including some hot money. This trend is mainly based on an optimistic judgement of RMB appreciation and China's economic prospects, and will not be greatly affected by the withdrawal of QE. China's economy is still in the process of structural adjustment. The price of various equity assets is low, and it belongs to the value depression in the whole world. It still has enough attraction for long-term capital. < /p >