Cotton Farmers In North China Will Reduce Cotton Production By About 40% Of Cotton Prices.

In recent years, domestic cotton planting area has been declining continuously. According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey (late November), in 2014, the average cotton planting area in China was 65 million 973 thousand mu, a decrease of 4 million 836 thousand mu compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 6.8%. among The Yellow River Basin The intended area of cotton planting is 18 million 932 thousand mu, a decrease of 12.7% compared with the same period last year, the largest drop.

Xiajin County of Shandong province is both a large cotton growing county and a textile land. It is known as "silver Xiajin". According to local cotton farmers, the highest cotton planting area has reached 650 thousand mu in the 830 thousand mu arable land in the county. Till 2013, only 30 acres of cotton planting area remained. Xiajin county is the epitome of the cotton market in the Yellow River basin in recent years. Zhao Zhuang village, Hejian City, Hebei Province, is also an important cotton processing and production base. It has more than 150 small and large cotton ginning plants, and only 400 enterprises have more than 20. However, it is difficult to see cotton cars this year. On the one hand, seed cotton can not be collected. In previous years, a large scale enterprise could produce 7000-8000 tons of lint cotton in a cotton season. In 2012, most of the enterprises made 2000-3000 tons of lint. In 2013, more than 1500 tons of enterprises were already rare. Now it is difficult to find cotton fields in Shandong and Hebei provinces. On the other hand, the processing profit is greatly reduced. The head of a ginning factory in Hebei said that in 2011, the state started collecting and storing the business, and the profits of the storage enterprises were all above 2000 yuan / ton. In 2012, it dropped to 1000 yuan / ton, and in 2013, it dropped to 400-500 yuan / ton.

"Cotton may be less next year." A cotton trader said that in 2013, most areas of Hebei and Shandong suffered floods, and the quality of cotton decreased. The quality of the storage and storage enterprises was strictly controlled. The cotton seed cotton sale rate was only about 50%, while the rest of the cotton was bought by 200 type enterprises. At present, about 40% of the cotton is still in the cotton farmers' home. Several cotton growers who are in contact with their businesses have said that they no longer grow cotton in 2014. The head of a large quality cotton seed company in Hejian has said that there are few distributors of seeds this year, and is expected next year. Spring sowing cotton planting The area may continue to shrink.

In 2014, the state may no longer have large-scale storage and purchase, and in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee stressed that "let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources" and the market variables increased significantly. The 400 type enterprises showed no bottom. Xiajin, Jining and other places cotton enterprises responsible person said that these two years of business difficulties, many enterprises on the verge of collapse, if the state does not store up, the 200 type enterprises are likely to comeback, this may be the last straw to overcome the camel. Some enterprises say that whether to continue to purchase next year is still unknown. Some enterprises even give up and change to other businesses. Market participants estimate that the cotton business in the the Yellow River River Basin in 2014 will be reduced by more than 40%.

　 Expert analysis

Ma Junkai analyzed that, from an objective point of view, in recent years Purchasing and storage policy It has made great contributions to the protection of cotton farmers' interests. But because the benefit of the seed cotton is not as good as the grain, the trend of the cotton farmers "to change the grain to the grain" is difficult to reverse.

In 2008, the cotton planting area in Dezhou reached the maximum of 2 million 900 thousand mu. Since then, the planting area has been declining year by year, and it has dropped to 1 million 300 thousand mu in 2012, and this year it has further declined to 1 million 100 thousand mu. "It is estimated that next year, the cotton planting area in Dezhou will decline by 20%, and the 1 million mu level will not be guaranteed."

With the sharp decline of cotton planting area and the serious surplus of processing capacity, in the face of such industrial reality, even if the cotton pricing power of the cotton reserves is returned to the market, the benefits to cotton processing plants will also be limited. For the warehousing industry, the days will be difficult after losing the sanctuary of "purchasing and storing".

The biggest beneficiaries of the withdrawal policy will be the downstream textile industry. "Because the purchasing and storage policy has raised the domestic cotton prices, the domestic textile industry is suffering from the huge difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and a large number of orders are flowing to Southeast Asia. After the withdrawal of the purchase and storage policy, the cotton price will be handed over to the market, which will alleviate the difficulties faced by the domestic textile industry. Ma Junkai said.