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China'S Cotton Purchase And Storage Scale Is Unprecedented, And China'S Policy Will Dominate The World'S Cotton Market.

2014/1/12 20:55:00 76

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Cotton Storage And Storage Scale Global Cotton Market

In the P futures market, because of the serious control of the government and the withdrawal of speculative capital, industrial investors can not carry out hedging. Therefore, the actual fluctuation of Zheng cotton futures price in most of the year is no more than 500 points, and the turnover has also shrunk dramatically. The external control is not serious in China, and the fluctuation is relatively large. 
 Global Supply and demand is still oversupply, /p >
 from the global perspective, a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > USDA > /a "and other agencies predict the 2013/14 year is still oversupply, and global stocks have reached a high level for decades. This is mainly because China has been collecting and storing large quantities for several years. At present, China has mastered more than 55% of the world's cotton stocks, forming a "barrier lake" in China. Next, how the Chinese government will release huge stocks will become the key to global cotton prices. 
 from the perspective of supply and demand in China, there has been a slight reduction in production in the past two years. However, due to the huge stock of cotton reserves, the impact of production cuts can be ignored. Up to now, the reserves of cotton stocks exceed 11 million tons. In September 2012, the government launched the first round of dumping; in January 2013, it launched the second round of dumping and storage, and lasted until the end of July. From the perspective of policy trends, the government will continue to inventory in the next few years, and huge inventory will suppress the space above cotton prices for a long time. 
 China's acquisition and storage continued to expand its stock /p >
 2011, the country launched the first "no limit" storage and storage, and it collected 3 million 370 thousand tons in 2011, accounting for more than 40% of the domestic cotton output in that year. In the 2012 year, it collected 6 million 620 thousand tons, accounting for 90% of the total domestic output in the year. As of now, the storage capacity has reached 4 million 360 thousand tons, accounting for more than 60% of the expected annual output of 2013. 
 up to now, accumulative total of over 15 million tons has been accumulated over the past 3 consecutive years, which has exceeded everyone's expectations. China and foreign countries are convinced of the Chinese government's policy execution and market determination. From the view of purchasing and storage, the purchase and storage did play a role in stabilizing the domestic cotton market and protecting cotton farmers. But on the other hand, the purchase and storage resulted in a huge price gap between inside and outside, the cost of spinning enterprises was high, the competitiveness declined, and the low end orders were lost. But it also forces enterprises to spanform and upgrade in a sense and to reduce backward production capacity, which is in line with the country's major strategic objectives. 
 2014, the direction of purchasing and storage will be changed to /p >
 collecting and storing has consumed huge manpower, material resources and financial resources, and has been criticized by many parties. In the long run, this policy is difficult to sustain. Since 2013, the whole purchase and storage system has been questioned by many parties. From the official voice and public opinion environment, the call for cotton direct subsidy is very high. Since 2013, from the government's various speeches on cotton policy, we believe that the general direction of China's cotton policy has gradually changed: 
In March, Premier Li Keqiang asked the relevant departments to carefully study the relationship between protecting cotton farmers and reducing the cost of textile enterprises in a forum with entrepreneurs in March. 
 Liu Xiaonan, deputy director of the economic and Trade Department of the NDRC, said at the China International Cotton Conference in early June that the current cotton purchase and storage policy has limitations. The NDRC and relevant departments are studying how to further improve the cotton market regulation mechanism and explore a long-term mechanism to promote the long-term, stable and healthy development of the cotton industry. 
Sun Ruizhe, vice president of the textile industry < /a > Federation, said in an interview with media in mid June that the cotton purchasing and storage policy is expected to be adjusted, that is, direct subsidy to cotton growers. China > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp". The upcoming Cotton Conference in Xinjiang will further discuss the policy, and Xinjiang is expected to become the first pilot area. 
"P > November 2013, Du Min, director of the Rural Development Research Office of the rural economic research center of the Ministry of agriculture, said that in 2014/15, China's cotton temporary storage policy will no longer be implemented, and the direction is basically qualitative. However, 2014/15 cotton season's new deal is still under discussion, such as the implementation of Cotton Subsidy Policy, whether it is per mu yield or mass production subsidy, and the quota and method are still not conclusive. 
 > from < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > cotton > /a >, although direct subsidy is the ultimate goal, it is unlikely to change from a large number of storage and storage to direct subsidy. The greater possibility is to adopt a variety of supporting measures on the basis of direct subsidy. In the next two or three years, cotton regulation will be gradually spanferred from the current planned economy to the market. On the short term, the theme of the 2014 cotton policy is to narrow the difference between inside and outside cotton prices and go to stock. If the government withdrew from the market and narrowed the cotton price at home and abroad, there are two ways to achieve: Liberalization of import (additional quota), low price imports of cotton into the country, narrowing of internal and external spreads, increase of domestic supply through dumping and storage, reduction of domestic cotton prices, and narrowing of internal and external spreads. 
 December, the market generally said that the state would reduce the import tax rate of cotton sliding allowance tax quota, but the Ministry of Finance announced in December 16th that since January 1, 2014, China has continued to implement the sliding tax on a certain quantity of cotton imported from the tariff quota, and has adjusted the formula of sliding tax. After adjustment, according to the prevailing market quotation, the cost of imported cotton will be increased by 200~450 yuan / ton. 
 from this point, we can infer that since the stock of cotton reserves is huge, the country will mainly stock up in the future, and if we want to increase our imports while stockpiling stocks, the aim will be difficult to achieve. Therefore, it is more likely to narrow the gap between the inside and outside prices through the second points mentioned above. 
 storage and discharge normalization 
 as of December 23, 2013, the total storage volume of 4 million 440 thousand tons in 2013, including 3 million 260 thousand tons in Xinjiang and 1 million 180 thousand tons in the mainland. In the same period last year, the total storage volume was 4 million 850 thousand tons, 3 million 290 thousand tons in the territory, and 1 million 560 thousand tons in the mainland. 
 the total volume of storage and collection is close to the same period last year. According to the data provided by the Bureau, as of December 21st, the new year has 5 million 600 thousand tons of new cotton for public inspection. 
Since the purchase of P has been launched this year, the government has abolished the qualification of many remote enterprises. However, from the actual spanaction, since late October, the progress of purchasing and storage has been speeded up. Recently, relevant departments have said that they will relax standards for collecting and storing Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. This situation will raise the storage capacity of the mainland significantly. According to the current storage schedule, the total volume of storage and storage is 5 million tons. There is no doubt that the collection and storage volume is a psychological boost to the market. But when it comes to collecting reserves, it means that more resources can be put into the country. Therefore, we must pay more attention to dumping and storage when the storage and purchase situation has been determined. 
 the new round of dumping and storage started in November 28, 2013 and ended at the end of August this year. As of December 21st, the total amount of cotton put into operation was 402 thousand tons, with a total turnover of 203 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 50.37%. Among them, 354 thousand tons of domestic cotton have been listed, with a total turnover of 155 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 43.82%. Imported cotton has been listed for 48 thousand tons, with a total turnover of 47 thousand tons, with a turnover rate of 98.47%. 
 from the early stage of the spanaction, we found that the quantity of throwing and storing was not large, and the daily delivery volume was about 20 thousand tons. The spanaction price of dumping and storage was stable at 18400 yuan / ton, and the spot price was basically flat. 
 before the end of March 2014, in order to prevent "turn around cotton", the amount of dumping and storage in the country is less. However, after the end of the end of March, the work of protecting cotton farmers will be completed. The demand of textile industry will be taken into consideration, and it is expected that the quantity will be increased, or even the dumping price will be reduced.