Clothes Fade, Shoes And Caps Rush.

In 2002-2007 years, Guangdong's exports increased by an average of 25.3% per year.

Since 2008, Guangdong's export growth has been declining month by month.

Total exports in the 1-6 months amounted to US $187 billion 830 million, an increase of 13% over the same period last year, representing an increase of 13.5 percentage points over the same period last year.

In June, the export growth rate was only 2%, an increase of 29.8 percentage points over the same month last year.

Who is singing the decline of Canton Fair?

In fact, the Canton Fair is better than expected.

On the whole, the turnover of the Canton Fair is equivalent to 80% of the previous session, and the purchasers are equivalent to 90% of the previous session.

Under the circumstances of the financial tsunami, such a reply has given the exporters a sigh of relief.

What can not be avoided is that some industries are indeed facing the test of life and death.

As revealed by the Canton Fair, the labor intensive industries such as textiles, clothing, footwear, toys and so on are shrunk. Next year's situation is bound to be even more difficult.

The export of this part of the product occupies a large part of Guangdong, and will inevitably affect the survival of enterprises in the region.

"Labor intensive products should enhance their competitiveness through marketing and service levels, and implement diversified and multinational market strategies." as pointed out by the Minister of Commerce Chen Deming in the Canton Fair, the campaign is related to the upgrading of Guangdong's industry and to the pformation of an export-oriented economy.

The Ministry of Commerce has found that the change of exchange rate has affected the signing of orders, and the orders have been characterized by short-term, and the amount has declined.

At present, the volume of pactions has shrunk by 20% in the financial tsunami, and the 104th Canton Fair has attracted much attention.

In November 6th, the end of the Canton Fair was generally better than expected.

"Exhibitors generally reflect that before coming to participate in this Canton Fair, they may be psychologically prepared for the reduction and turnover of purchasers, but the actual effect is higher than expected." the Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Fair and the spokesman for the Guangzhou Trade Fair, moxin Hai, told reporters yesterday.

As of November 5th, the total number of overseas purchasers at the Canton Fair was 174562, and the total volume of export pactions was 31 billion 550 million US dollars.

In contrast to the previous Canton Fair, the last 192013 overseas purchasers received a turnover of US $38 billion 230 million.

The number of purchasers was 90.9% last year, and the turnover was 82.5% of last year.

This is the result that most of the countries in the world have lowered their economic growth expectations, the international consumer market has been shrinking, and the procurement activities of professional buyers in the European and American markets have not been easy.

This is the result of the joint efforts of all the participants, especially the exhibitors. At the same time, it shows that China's export industry has already formed a strong competitive advantage. China's export products still have obvious competitive advantages, and the ability of export enterprises to cope with changes in the external environment is growing.

In addition, the number of private enterprises involved in this exhibition was 18 billion 560 million US dollars, which accounted for a large proportion of 58.8%. private enterprises.

Another new sign is that the volume of intentional pactions through the network platform is increasing. The total number of visits to the websites of the Canton Fair has reached 170 million times, and the total volume of intentional pactions on the Internet has reached US $570 million.

In the last session, there were only 130 million visits to the websites of the Canton Fair, and the total volume of intentional turnover on the Internet was only $540 million.

The end of textile and garment industry?

"No businessman, textile and clothing seems to be at the end of the day", an exhibitor sitting in the corner depressed.

The third phase of the Canton Fair is dominated by textiles and clothing, and is also one of the most severely hit by the financial tsunami.

Fortunately, during the Canton Fair, the state raised the export tax rebate rate of some commodities, and the textile and garment enterprises generally benefited.

The textile and garment industry has become the hardest hit area. In fact, it was discovered from the previous Canton Fair. The last garment and accessories were traded at 2 billion 870 million US dollars, down by 4.8%. Textile yarn, fabrics and products traded at 2 billion 460 million US dollars, down 16.8%, and the situation is not optimistic.

"Textile and clothing can not be placed in the third stage, and the former businessmen are not used to it." the exhibitors will blame the exhibition arrangement for some reasons.

But these can be adjusted. Mu Xinhai has made it clear that the mode of the three session of the Canton Fair will not only persist in the coming period, but also improve and perfect it in practice.

Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, pointed out at the Canton Fair that there are still uncertainties in the follow-up impact of the financial crisis on the real economy. The export of energy and resource products is affected, and labor-intensive products are diversified and multinational by improving their marketing and service levels. The market prospect is worth our wait and see.

But a sign that can not be ignored is that the upgrading of international trade protectionism will lead to the export of traditional dominant products.

Since the beginning of this year, the developed countries such as the United States, Japan and other countries have made frequent efforts to make "made in China" on the issue of product safety, resulting in a marked slowdown in the export growth of vegetables, aquatic products, toys and other products, and the trade barrier has become increasingly prominent after the melamine incident.

"After Obama came to power, we have some concerns about its trade policy". Yesterday's exhibitors were outspoken. Obama's remarks made China's exporters uneasy.

More importantly, the Sino US textile agreement will end in December 31st this year. At the same time, according to the relevant provisions of China's accession to the WTO working group report, the textile special measures will also expire at the end of 2008.

Exchange rate fluctuations are also one of the problems.

"Exchange rate fluctuations caused by the financial tsunami have seriously plagued export enterprises", exhibitors reflect.

The recent international market exchange rate changes too fast, affecting the determination of customers to order, it is difficult to guarantee the interests of both sides when signing an agreement.

Some enterprises take account of the potential losses caused by the fluctuation of the exchange rate into the prices of the commodities so as to avoid exchange rate risks.

However, because of the inability to predict the speed and extent of RMB appreciation, many export enterprises have changed long-term orders to short-term orders, and changed large orders to small orders, resulting in a reduction in total orders and a decrease in export value.

Next month, the company has called for an increase in export tax rebates for 1~9 months. The number of finished shoes exports in China is 6 billion 270 million pairs, down 2.76% from the same period last year, and the export amount is 20 billion 960 million US dollars, up by 14.2%. over the same period.

If the factor of depreciation of the US dollar is excluded, the export amount will be deducted by the growth of 14.2% as the base, and only 3% of the profits will be left.

This has not yet taken into account the depreciation of the renminbi.

The export earnings of the whole Chinese shoe industry are actually negative growth.

Wang Lihong, director of Fuzhou Ye Xia plastic and leather Co., Ltd., in an interview, said that due to factors such as exchange rate, wages and raw material prices, the export market was faced with great cost pressure. Now it is encountering the shortage of export orders and customers' payment. The Chinese footwear industry, which is under unprecedented pressure this year, has been encountering bad news in recent years. The European Union announced the anti-dumping review on Chinese leather shoes in early October, making Chinese footwear enterprises temporarily unable to get rid of the shadow of 16.5% anti-dumping duty. Then, the export tax rebate rates of 3486 commodities such as textiles, clothing and toys announced by the state in October 21st were not included in the export tax rebate rate.

Industry insiders pointed out that although raising the export tax rebate rate can alleviate the current cost pressure of shoe enterprises, it may also cause more trade friction because of low price competition. The state has not included shoes in the two export tax rebate rate adjustment this year, which may be related to the complexity of the export situation of shoes.

"We have always hoped that the export tax rebate rate can be raised."

Wang Lihong said, "even if it is one percentage point higher, this is mainly a psychological function to enhance the export confidence of the footwear industry."

Wen Zhongliang's interview with director of the foreign trade division of the Ministry of Commerce and director of the Canton fair business office: labor intensive exports will be more difficult next year. We must keep the traditional market.

Will the traditional export markets such as Europe, America and Japan be replaced by emerging markets?

Wen Zhongliang: from the structural point of view, it should reflect two characteristics. The turnover volume of the traditional market in Europe and the United States is still at the forefront, but the volume of emerging market volume is indeed increasing.

I think this is actually the two aspect of a problem. On the one hand, the traditional export market is still playing a leading role. We must keep this market and dig deeper. At the same time, we also point out that the new growth point of the export market has already appeared in some countries.

The products made in China are more popular in the international market. Our enterprises have more advantages in developing the market. These two lines go parallel, so that the goal of stabilizing export growth can be realized.

(1/3) recently, the Ministry of Commerce has conducted a series of surveys on the Canton Fair. What is the situation?

Wen Zhongliang: the research work is still being done. At present, the research work has not been completed. We should combine the trend of export development this year and the analysis of the global economic development next year.

In the meantime, Minister Chen Deming of the Ministry of Commerce came to the meeting to discuss with the provincial and municipal leaders, to investigate the exhibitors, vice minister Gao Hucheng, Jiang Zengwei, Yi Xiao Jun and Fu Ziying, and the head of discipline inspection team, Wang and min and assistant minister Lu Jianhua, held a presided over work or attended the meeting.

I personally think that the factors that really affect our exports are: first, the export decline brought by the world economic downturn; second, the uncertainty factors brought about by the change of the world economy are the most uncertain factors, and the impact on the turnover will be affected; third, the rise of the cost of living enterprises is difficult to digest through export, such as the 30% increase in the cost of enterprises, which may only plate into the preliminary analysis of 10%.. Among the many factors that affect the paction, 74% of the exhibitors believe that the decrease of the international market demand is the main factor affecting the paction. 59.2% of the enterprises reflect the shorter order period, and 75.7% of the enterprises reflect the decrease of the order amount.

These are some of our basic research results.

The situation of textile, shoes and hats is serious. Reporter: what is the export situation of labor intensive industries such as textiles and shoes?

Wen Zhongliang: indeed, the turnover of general labor intensive products is relatively large, which is consistent with the situation of the whole export. The labor intensive products of clothing and footwear industry are relatively poor.

This reflects more closely the export situation in the first half of next year. Under the backdrop of the economic downturn, next year's exports of such products must be even more difficult than this year.

Reporter: how do you generally comment on the Canton Fair?

Wen Zhongliang: as a whole, the Canton Fair is better than I expected, and the merchants' attendance and turnover were better than expected.

At present, the global financial crisis continues to spread to the real economy, the world economy decelerated obviously, and its impact on China's foreign trade exports is increasingly apparent.

However, the fundamentals of China's economic development are good. The export industry has already formed a strong competitive advantage. China's export products still have obvious competitive advantages, and the ability of export enterprises to cope with changes in the external environment is growing.

After the reform, the Canton Fair has created better conditions to cope with the severe difficulties faced by the current foreign trade development.

While organizing the participation of small and medium enterprises in the region and the industry, the trading group and business association focus on supporting the featured industries and exhibitors with independent intellectual property rights, energy saving, environmental protection, high quality and high added value.