Analysis Of Cotton Price In China In January 2014

January 2014, China Cotton price There was a marked rise in the stimulus of State purchasing and storage, hitting a maximum of 19555 yuan in the session, up about 2.5% from the beginning of the month. However, due to the Spring Festival, cotton prices are rising and there is a callback.

From a fundamental perspective, the domestic cotton market will oversupply in February, and cotton will return to the weak. On the one hand, the release of national cotton stores and the influx of foreign cotton increased domestic supply; on the other hand, domestic demand recovered slowly, but relatively weak. It is expected that the downstream demand will increase the downward momentum of Zheng cotton.

The US cotton demand and supply report released in January showed that 2013/2014's global cotton production is expected to increase by the month, and the consumption expectation is down by the month, so that the inventory is expected to increase at the end of the month, which will have a negative impact on global cotton prices. The upward adjustment of the output comes mainly from the adjustment of supply and demand data for China's cotton market. According to government related data, Xinjiang's output will exceed 2012/2013 in the current year, which accounts for 60% of China's output. The US expects the end of the world cotton inventory is expected to be 97 million 600 thousand packs, of which China accounted for 60%.

According to the state cotton The market monitoring system monitored that as of January 17, 2014, the total cotton processing of new cotton in the whole country was 6 million 121 thousand tons, an increase of 169 thousand tons over the normal years of the past four years, and a total sales of 5 million 716 thousand tons of lint, a decrease of 756 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 1 million 837 thousand tons over the normal years of the past four years. It can be seen that cotton self sufficiency is abundant in China. Meanwhile, in terms of imports, according to China Customs statistics, the number of cotton imports in China increased significantly in December 2013, the highest in the year, reaching 608 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 435 thousand and 500 tons. Throughout the year, the total import of cotton in 2013 was 4 million 149 thousand and 400 tons, down 19.2% from the same period last year.

The purchase and storage of cotton in January is the biggest incentive for cotton prices to rise. However, in February, the selling of national cotton reserves turned the profit factors into negative ones. Entering February, the scale of storage and acquisition is expected to continue downward trend. By the end of January, China's cotton reserves management company had nearly 5 million 800 thousand tons of actual transactions, with a turnover ratio of 35%. In fact, in January, the national cotton purchasing and storage volume was decreasing day by day, and the average daily turnover ratio decreased from 50% to 30%. Near the Spring Festival, the spot sale of lint in southern and Northern Xinjiang is deserted, and the number of lint that can not meet the demand for storage is increasing. Most local manufacturers have closed for the holiday, and most of the processing, inspection and management personnel of the processing plants have been withdrawn, and the average daily storage scale has gradually declined. And after the Spring Festival, whether Xinjiang or the mainland, the quality of cotton meets the quality requirements of cotton is becoming scarce.

On the other hand, the actual turnover of the Treasury has increased recently. As of January 24th, the China cotton reserve management company plans to sell its cotton reserves, which is about 400 thousand tons, with an average turnover rate of 20.96%. The author estimates that as at the end of 3, 2013/2014, including new cotton, there will be 7 million tons of -800 tons of national cotton reserves needed to be released in order to effectively alleviate the pressure on the Treasury. Considering that the longer the cotton quality storage time is, the greater the quality damage will be, and the longer the storage time is, the higher the reserve cost will be. The Treasury release time is mainly concentrated in the past one or two years. At the same time, the policy of unlimited purchase and storage in 2014/2015 has been replaced by direct subsidy policy. The policy of withdrawing from storage is withdrawn, while foreign reserves are being sold by the State Reserve.

The demand for downstream products is still not out of the trend of decelerating growth. 1-2 months every year, due to the reasons for the Spring Festival holiday, Spin , clothing The enterprises started to stop work one after another, and the start-up rate of the textile mills was basically at the lowest level of the year. Therefore, it is estimated that in February this year, the operating rate of enterprises also showed a decline in comparison with that in March.

Data show that as of late January, the whole cotton yarn market has been depressed in recent years, and there is no price in the market. Shipments in the market are extremely low. Among them, cotton prices in Heze and Linqing fell sharply in Shandong province. In the first ten days of January, the price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 23000 yuan / ton, down 8%.

In addition, the impact of polyester and imported cotton yarn should not be underestimated. The cotton and polyester ratio continues to rise slightly compared with the previous stage, and the price is still at a higher position. This indicates that the substitution of domestic pure cotton yarn is still higher than before. Imported cotton yarn still has strong substitution for domestic pure cotton yarn.