Home >

China's Stock Market Will Change Forever In The Next Few Years.

2014/2/24 16:06:00 23

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

＜p＞　　如果我們足夠尊重＜a href="http://www.91se91.com"＞市場＜/a＞，那么就應該從市場的現實表現中探尋發展的脈絡和蹤跡，而不是從簡單的估值角度出發，埋怨市場的無效和失真，因為估值是一個滯后的表達，它的參考意義是相對的，絕對的判斷依據從來都不是估值第一，或者技術分析第一，而是發展第一，估值和技術分析是可以量化的，發展不可以，證券投資難在哪里?難就難在最核心的東西不可量化，所以那些技術分析，那些基本面數據分析，根本就實實在在的測不準原理，最多是相對接近，99%的人為之窮盡精力，以為捧到了圣杯，其實多數是無用功，對對錯錯，時對時錯，一部分人正加負大于零，一部分人正加負等于零，更多的人正加負小于零。 
＜p＞　　把握資本市場的密鑰不在市場本身，而在市場之外，實際上就是對發展趨勢的把握，這個趨勢，小到產業發展，技術進展，大到經濟周期和社會發展;所以看市場，應該盡可能的遠，盡可能的高，證券市場的設計，短期看是順人性的，長期則是反人性的，白話說就是你最喜歡什么，什么最能吸引你，什么就能立即呈現，所以多數人一開始很容易就進入了，很容易就嘗到一點甜頭了，并樂此不疲，操勞不斷，但這基本是情緒主導的，理性很弱勢，幾乎毫無定性，人們被市場操練的像膝跳反映那么機械，小到散戶，大到一些機構，都是如此，因此中短期市場行為成為資本市場的主流，無數投資個體的短期市場行為，造就資本市場的波動，就像完成一幅工筆畫的過程，每一個細小的線條，無數個密密麻麻的組成，隨著不斷的積累，終于讓人們看清了輪廓，看清了 Appearance, clear look, the opportunity is still dangerous, and finally the world; /p
 Buffett said: the role of the stock market is the center of a reconfiguration of resources, which is spanferred from the frequently traded short term traders to the long-term investors' pocket of patience. 
 this sentence is indeed the core of winning the investment. Therefore, it is really ridiculous to see the stock market review, see what main force, big capital, pull up, shipment, purchase, and so on. Stock ratings need ratings, so close to the audience, but often a small stock assessment program, valuable information will not exceed three minutes. 
 however, the stock review is still to be seen. The key lies in how to look at it. The highly consistent things need to be reversed. Experience shows that for those who are too resonant, generally speaking, the probability of winning is very high. In the recent comments, the highly consistent opinion is that 2014 will be very bad. The spring market is an important food market. This opinion is broad and representative, and many forum V also holds this view, to March, or optimistic to April, and so on. 
Fundamentally speaking, this bull market, especially the bull market that the United States has repeatedly broken the historical high, is somewhat puzzling, but the sensitivity of the capital market has always been 100% accurate. It shows that there must be major industrial spanformation events in the future economy. In fact, for the United States, the replacement of the energy industry, the elimination and integration of the financial industry, the gradual realization of the electric vehicle and the large-scale industrial spanformation triggered by the mobile Internet all present unprecedented subversion expectations, and their endogenous and derivative forces are all unparalleled and unprecedented. The bull market is not only real, but also will last for a long time, and its influence is huge, so it has the ability to lead the global stock market to a positive trend. since 2013, the major capital markets in the world have begun to enter a distinct bull market under the guidance of the US stock market, with a static economy. 
P > has become the world's second largest economy in China. In the face of this change, there is a bit of confusion in the pace, chaos and chaos, and the pace of follow up has not stopped. The gem which represents the advanced productive forces and production relations has followed up very positively. The situation is better than that of the leading big brother Nasdaq, and the small board is also good. It has broken through a solid bottom, and only the motherboard has not followed up. For one reason, I tried to analyze the two articles of "efficiency of China's stock market" and "from chips to equity", but the observation angles of the two articles were relatively static, so they could not be the basis for the trend judgement. If we elongate the observation line and look at the problem more dynamically, it might help to judge the trend. < 
The conclusion is based on the judgement of American Industrial Development and spanformation in the past twenty years and the geopolitical accumulation results of the US operation for many years. This article will not elaborate on it. Only the conclusion is drawn that China's gem will be able to follow the NASDAQ step by step on the basis of the economic spanformation expected from the business similarity and the strong demand of the national conditions and the gradual opening of the new stock market (mainly the GEM). The SME board and the gem have complementary effects, and the overall pace will gradually follow up the growth enterprise market. first, the United States is a super long cycle of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > bull market < /a >. 
＜p＞　　當前的實體經濟數據，不論是CPI、PPI、GDP增速還是什么克強指數，都不具很強的參考意義，轉型時期，本來這些數據就是弱參考，因為它能反映現實，卻不是反映預期的強勢數據，這是轉型所特有的狀態;而中國經濟的轉型，并不是新經濟所能完全代表的，新經濟只要給點陽光，自己及就燦爛了，因為它本來就是非常充分的市場化;更重要的是那些老舊勢力的傳統經濟能不能順利完成轉型，這才是轉型的攻堅戰，是需要動用外力的，也是所謂十八大改革最核心的部分，股市表現的盛與衰，就是這個改革的直觀寫照，如果主板向1600乃至1400發展下去，那就是直接宣告習李新政三年不鳴，直接死掉，也別指望一鳴驚人了;同時也是向世界宣告，中國的銀行體系，凈資產之下有風險，凈資產再腰斬，還是有風險，如果國家金融體系重鎮在還未接受變革之前就死翹翹了 The eighteen big and nineteen most of them are not open. Let's call it a day.
＜p＞　　傳統勢力和體制的改變是漫長而充滿了折磨體驗的，中國資本市場的二十多年就是一個典型的驗證，過程是：為國企解困(純粹的奪民利益)----股權分置改革(與民讓利)----中小板開市(資本市場不再為國企獨占)----重量級國企央企大面積上市(與民讓利后的對沖，再次奪利)----創業板開市(充分鼓勵創業)，總體上看，這個過程是一個進步的過程，也是破冰之旅，只是傳統或既得利益勢力很強勢，把持國民經濟重要資源卻又低效率，在實體經濟中部分核心人員獲益很大;但在資本市場上整體產業卻逐漸遁形，因為資本市場是未來的預言師，超長期的萎靡不振，無視與之相配的所謂較好投資數據，就是宣告未來的死亡信息，不論是機構還是個人都用腳投票，漫長跌勢，把它們的主要代表打到凈資產下，實體經濟中，新產業的蓬勃發展又在蠶食他們的壟斷地盤，兩廂夾擊，迫使傳統頑固勢力必須做出抉擇，不改變等崩潰利益歸零，重新洗牌，還是主動求變，學會妥協，答案應該是比較明確的，市場經濟的優勢就是它有能力讓各方自然達成最優化選擇，這是計劃經濟完全的盲點，如果市場經濟沒有這樣的必殺技，整個世界的經濟體系也不可能在經歷半個世紀的冷戰相持后，以一方幾乎全面的崩塌而告終，中國的央企國企其實骨子里還是計劃經濟模式，效率低下是必然的，無非是受益于壟斷，和整體國民經濟的大踏步上位，這個過程中，它沒有產生領航型產業的真正實力，禁絕于自由競爭的市場之外，至今居然還是政黨力量主導企業管理，所以發展到今天，成為整體經濟再上一層樓的滯后元素，而那些在自由經濟海洋里遨游出來的產業，不過是十年左右的時間，其實力和影響力居然已經達到完全可以與之相持競爭的程度，銀行業好 Two barrels of oil business, if there is no policy resistance, Tencent, Baidu and Ali such new economic predators want to involve in related businesses, breaking the bureau is almost easy, and in the long run, there is no strength to contain it. Unless you do not develop, so when the balance is tilted to the interests of the entire system are threatened, the demand for change naturally arises. 
The issue of programmatic expression is not whether you want to change it or not. It is inevitable that how to change it is the focus of attention. So last week's two oil trading limit is not the same as before. According to inertia, the so-called market manipulation thinking is misreading. Now, just like the end of the Qing Dynasty, if the court of Emperor Guangxu is willing to change, learn from the British initiative to accept the constitutional monarchy, accept the bus book, do not kill six gentlemen, maybe it will not go back to the point of collapse completely. In fact, the opinions and opinions of the six gentlemen were adopted by the Qing court after their death. Unfortunately, the situation is over, and the opportunity can not be repeated; since last year, the establishment of the Shanghai free trade area and the operation of the pilot reform of state-owned enterprises have been gradually changing to the two largest oil enterprises in the state owned enterprises.
＜p＞　　如果我們整理整個中國經濟改革的大線條，就會看的很清楚，什么在進，什么在退，期間的反復和曲折又是什么，《從籌碼到股權》一文中列舉的數字說明，不斷在進的民營經濟已經成為中國經濟的中堅力量，這就是趨勢，異常強勁的，資本市場已經給了很好的展現;主板市場要涅磐重生的核心就在如何求變，不再是外在的給幾個銅板的股權分置改革，而是內生體制上的變化，引入民營經濟成分，引入市場競爭機制，淡化黨政力量在企業經營權上的介入程度，還企業一個純粹的市場運作環境，這必將是習李新政在未來十年要積極推進的核心，這樣去做，無非是順勢而為，因為民智已經真正開啟，誰會放棄這種順水推舟就能揚名立萬的機會呢?＜/p＞
＜p＞　　胡溫十年，是房地產的十年，到了中后期房地產的財富效應令人瘋狂，整個社會除了資本市場和一些電子產品是降價的，幾乎全部商品都完成了價格飛漲，好在，歷史經驗表明，最終資本市場是不會錯過這場價格盛宴的，一旦其財富效應被激發起來，它的膨脹力乃至泡沫化程度都是空前的，當前中國經過了十年的財富增長和積累，資金總量巨大，一方面房地產被推高再推高，另一方面真正具有長效財富增值能力的資本市場卻冷寂一旁，今天從創業板開始逐漸推暖資本市場的財富效應，外部資本市場的全面激活也將不斷加強人們的心理暗示，況且時至今日全球經濟一體化的態勢下，資產價格的上升效應早晚會傳導，在總體經濟發展趨勢向上，政治相對穩定的前提下，繁榮也是會傳染的，一旦資本市場的財富效應開始擴大和深化，在目前中國資金潮的規模下 It is absolutely sufficient to push up the upward energy of the capital market, that is, when the equilibrium point breaks through. 
＜p＞　　＜a href="http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp"＞創業板＜/a＞是引領這個變局的引線和主導，它將貫穿整個牛市被引爆的全程，早就沒有二八了，因為二的陣營不再具備其應有的實力，除非變革，變革成功，也就進入到八的行列中，也就開始了新的估值歷程，資本市場自然也就有了新的動力和引擎，中國經濟的格局和政治體制，雖有高效率，但這個效率是雙刃劍，發展快和破壞力大是一樣的強，而且它沒有自我更新和升級的內生力，正常市場經濟下，發展與回撤是并存的，發展產生新的經濟元素，回撤消滅過剩產能，但是中國模式顯然不能容忍回撤，這是違背經濟發展規律的，死亡的公司，死亡的股票，都將在未來的變革中出現，也會盡可能的接近真正的市場經濟模式。 
If you have enough knowledge of culture, you will recognize that the symbol of the most representative Chinese culture is the Great Wall. You will also understand that you will eventually lose to a completely open, free expression and self competitive system. The difference is the most valuable asset for human beings. Opening up, freedom and competition are the necessary tools for gold exploration from the treasure of diversity. It is the unyielding source of human creation and progress. Any culture or system that is harmful to people's access to these three tools is destined to be eliminated. As a small mirror, China's capital market will eventually draw its twists and turns for this process! if the history of China