Six, What'S Wrong With The RMB Exchange Rate Depreciation?

What is wrong with p? What should we do as an ordinary investor? < /p >

< p > strong > 1, why suddenly a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > devaluation < /a > /strong > /p >

Below P, China's exchange rate is still under the control of the central bank, and the market can only fluctuate within a limited range.

Therefore, the RMB has seen a rare 6 consecutive fall, which is certainly acquiesced by the central bank. Its purpose is probably to fight cross-border arbitrage of hot money.

Because of the continued appreciation of the renminbi, some hot money flows into China through collusion and false trade. One can enjoy high interest rates, and the two is appreciation.

At present, there are at least 4 to 5 spreads between the United States and China, plus the expectation that the annual appreciation of the RMB will rise from 2 to 3 points. The hot money inflow can have 7 points or even higher profit margins.

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< p > these hot money came in US dollars, settled into Renminbi, increased the demand for RMB, and became a force to push the RMB to continue to appreciate.

But the continued appreciation of the renminbi is a disaster for "made in China".

Therefore, the central bank needs to break this expectation of unilateral appreciation and deterrent unscrupulous hot money.

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< p > February 12th, the General Administration of Customs announced the number of China's foreign trade in January: exports of US $207 billion 130 million, an increase of 10.6%; imports of US $175 billion 270 million, an increase of 10%; trade surplus of US $31 billion 860 million, and expansion of 14%.

At that time, I wrote that the figure was likely to be water, because China's exports in January could not be so brilliant from many indicators such as PMI and PPI and the figures released by China's trading partners.

Where did the water come from? It's probably the false trade created by hot money to enter China's arbitrage.

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< p > < strong > 2, is RMB overvalued? < /strong > < /p >

< p > certainly overestimated.

Personally, I think at least an overestimate of 20%, that is to say, the reasonable ratio of RMB to the US dollar should be about 7.5:1.

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In the period of P 2005, China started the exchange reform in view of the pressure of the United States.

Many people estimated that the yuan should appreciate to 4:1 or even 3:1.

In July 2005, the exchange reform started, then it was 8.27:1.

After more than 8 years of appreciation, the yuan is currently about 6.125:1 dollars, which does not seem to have reached the estimate at that time.

But you know, in recent years, China's M2 growth is second to none in the world, and China's broader currency has even surpassed that of the United States.

That is to say, when the foreign currency appreciates, the renminbi will depreciate internally.

This kind of internal depreciation has overdrawn the space for external appreciation.

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< p > if you have been to North America, you will find that in many aspects of China's clothing, food and housing, prices are higher than that in Canada and the United States.

As the renminbi maintained an abnormal high valuation, the yen depreciated sharply, resulting in a 2 fold increase in China's GDP from Japan to Japan, which took only 3 years.

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< p > the Lombard StreetResearch, a leading British consultancy, has warned China two times in the past year that they believe the RMB exchange rate has been overvalued by 1/3.

That is to say, the reasonable price is 8.16:1, which basically needs to go back to the level of July 2005.

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< p > strong > 3, will the future depreciate greatly? < /strong > /p >

< p > if we define a one-time depreciation of more than 10% as a significant depreciation, it is hard for the renminbi to avoid this day.

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The advantage of P overvaluation is that Chinese people will feel relaxed when they go shopping, traveling, studying abroad and buying their own homes abroad.

Because China has a relatively high degree of dependence on the international market in terms of oil, natural gas, timber, grain and minerals, the overvaluation of the renminbi can reduce import prices and reduce input inflation.

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< p > but the negative effect is also obvious, which is fatal to the manufacturing industry.

As labor productivity increases in China, bottlenecks and labor costs continue to rise, with the appreciation of the exchange rate, the high-end manufacturing industry is now accelerating to return to developed countries and move to Southeast Asia and Africa in the low end.

However, the pformation and upgrading of Chinese enterprises, which are subject to the imperfect domestic market mechanism, can not be completed yet.

Therefore, if we can not save the industry through deepening reform, we can only save it by devaluation.

At present, Japan chooses the latter, which is half of the so-called "Andouble economics".

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< p > strong > 4, will we choose to depreciate substantially this year? < /strong > /p >

< p > since the overvaluation of the renminbi is very destructive to industry, will China choose to depreciate substantially this year? Or is the current 6 consecutive fall is the beginning of a significant depreciation? I think it is unlikely that from the government's perspective, it should be held within two years.

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This year is a critical year for the us to withdraw from quantitative easing policy. The global hot money is accelerating the return of developed markets from emerging markets, which brings huge risks to emerging market countries. P

At present, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and other countries have seen significant currency depreciation and economic turmoil.

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"P" China is also facing the same situation, for example, although our stock market has fallen sharply, if the bank stocks with unclear prospects are still deducted, the average p / E ratio is still very high. China's housing prices, to say nothing of it, are generally higher than those of the developed countries.

Under such circumstances, the desire for capital to escape from China to the bottom of the developed countries is strong. Li Jiacheng is already doing it, and the real estate developers are going out one after another.

If the renminbi is depreciated under such circumstances, even if you declare that this is a step in place and will no longer depreciate in the future, the market will not believe it.

Once you start, it's hard to end.

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< p > because the RMB has not been freely convertible, so long as the central bank keeps the exchange rate closed, and often unconsciously reverses the market expectation operation, it can dispel the impulse of hot money inflow arbitrage on the one hand, and control the expectation of people's depreciation on the other hand.

Therefore, in 2014, the RMB exchange rate will increase appropriately under the precondition of regulation, but the keynote is stable or even stable.

As for the time bomb of overvalued exchange rate, it will be dismantled when the international and domestic situation is appropriate.

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< p > strong > 5, do you want to change some US dollars? < /strong > /p >

< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > foreign exchange futures < /a > risks are relatively large and are not suitable for ordinary investors. Therefore, foreign exchange investment without leverage is discussed here.

If you are rich, then there should be some dollar assets in the portfolio. There is no doubt about it. In fact, the American house may be better than the US dollar. If you are an ordinary family, but in the next two or three years, having children to study abroad, it is necessary to change points in advance.

But there is a problem. There are relatively few investment channels in the US dollar. The interest rate in Hongkong or the US is very low. Don't you envy the rate of return of the balance treasure 6%? < /p >

< p > as far as friends are concerned, they should sell all their houses to dollars.

It depends on where your house is, is it the only one?

If it is in the first tier cities, or do not sell, this house will be more reliable than the US dollar in the long run.

Although houses have short-term risks, paction taxes and fees are too high to make a difference.

If it is a house of three or four line cities, it is estimated that only meat cuts can be made now.

Besides, you should also consider what you do after holding dollars, because everyone has different conditions and different options.

If it's the only house, don't gamble.

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< p > and friends say that at least 10 thousand dollars in cash should be placed at home for emergency.

If you don't sleep well at night, you can change your home.

I have also heard of people with more sense of crisis. They always have to store more than 200 Jin of rice at home. He has psychological needs. You can't stop him.

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< p > < strong > 6, < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > US dollar < /a > will it continue to appreciate? < /strong > /p >

In the past one or two years, the appreciation of the US dollar is no problem, but the dollar denominated goods are hard to say. P

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< p > the Fed has always had two bottom lines: if the unemployment rate of the United States is not less than 6.5% and the annual inflation rate is not higher than 2%, the quantitative easing will not be terminated.

If the unemployment rate is below 6.5% and the annual inflation rate has exceeded 2.5%, it will not only terminate quantitative easing but also raise interest rates.

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< p > US dollar is a highly marketable currency. If you print more, the value of currency will decrease.

When you print speed down, slower than the speed of economic growth, it will appreciate.

Unlike RMB, which can depreciate within two or three times of domestic value, it will continue to appreciate abroad.

Whether it will completely terminate quantitative easing or raise interest rates in the future will push up the gold content of the US dollar.

As the US economy recovers faster than expected, the unemployment rate has been as low as 6.6% in January this year, so it is speculated that interest rates will probably rise before the end of the year.

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< p > if so, the dollar appreciation will be more obvious this year, which will cause great pressure on the stock market and the real estate market in emerging market countries, because hot money will go back to the United States more positively.

But for the US stock market and the property market, interest rate hikes are not good news, and the US stock market is likely to see the top because of the new high in the past two years.

The property market will also be suppressed, but the bull market will be more than the mayor, because the property market has been slow in the stock market half time.

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< p > in fact, any currency will depreciate in the long run.

From a long period of time, the dollar is not as good as gold, and gold is inferior to the real estate in central cities. This is the general rule.

As for Renminbi, cash may be the most unreliable.

If you have a question, Baidu [micro-blog] has a history of the evolution of the ruble's value over the past 30 years.

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