Home >

Where Is The Way Out For China's Future?

2014/3/5 10:13:00 46

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

since the beginning of the reform and opening up in the early 1980s, China has reintegrated from the "self reliant" closed economy into the Western centered economic globalization division of labor system. With the advantage of the southeast coastal area, the vigorous promotion of the pro business government, a lot of cheap land and labor force and other resources, we quickly seized the opportunity of the world, especially the East Asian a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > industry < /a > transfer. For more than 20 years, all kinds of "made in China" dominated by consumer goods are popular in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. 
 however, the prosperity made in China has always been based on a rather fragile foundation: products are mainly concentrated on low-end production, can not grasp the commanding heights of the industry, lack of pricing power for raw materials from the world market, rely heavily on external markets in sales, and have a high degree of external dependence on the economy. In recent years, the pressure of large-scale industrialization on the ecological environment is more obvious. With the rising cost of land and labor, China's manufacturing with low profit margins and low end production is losing the comparative advantage that the original price has won. It is in danger of being replaced by Latin American countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and other Southeast Asian countries and Mexico. In the high-end industry, it is faced with the squeeze from the manufacturing industry in developed countries such as the United States. 
 China's manufacturing is facing a crisis and must be transformed. This has become the general consensus of all walks of life. And how to transform is still a difficult road to explore. This means that China must redefine its position in the global division of labor and find a new model to support its economic development. 
 crisis > /strong > /p >
 a widespread story in the economic world is that a business owner who employs more than 1000 workers in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, has worked hard to earn about 1000000 a year, while his wife bought 10 houses in Shanghai and gained 30 million in 8 years. 
 this reflects the serious financial arbitrage in the society, and the abnormal development of China's real estate industry. On the other hand, it also reflects that China's manufacturing industry has reached a very dangerous level. The world's factory growth figures are no longer supported by exports of manufactured goods, but are supported by soaring property prices. 
 China's manufacturing industry has double pressures from inside and outside. The internal dilemma is mainly manifested in the fact that with the rising cost of labor, land and taxation, the profits of Chinese made products with low end products and limited profit margins are getting lower and lower. The latest data is that in 2013, the average monthly income of Chinese migrant workers was 2609 yuan, and the two digit wage growth rate has been maintained for fourth consecutive years since 2010. Experts said that with the absolute decline of China's labor force, the wages of migrant workers in the future will continue to grow rapidly. This has a major impact on Chinese manufacturing, which is mainly centered on low labor costs. 
Since the Second World War (P), East Asia has seen a rather clear industrial transfer route. From 50s and 60s to 50s and 60s, Japan and South Korea went to Southeast Asian countries and then to mainland China. With the rising cost, industrial transfer has become a typical model of global production. 
 we can see that Japan and Korea can retain the core upstream chain of enterprise headquarters and R & D, technology, marketing, brand and so on. After many shifts in the production line, the economy and society can still maintain sustainable development. And areas like Malaysia and Philippines, which rely entirely on materials processing, will lose their important position in the global division of labor once the production costs rise and the production lines are transferred out. 
 unfortunately, after more than 30 years of rapid development, "Shanzhai" and low quality are still important impressions made by China. 
 for a society that has undertaken too many functions in economic development, although environmental protection has always been aware of the unsustainability of extensive development mode, environmental protection has always been the second in China. Over the past one or two years, large areas of fog and haze have occurred in all parts of the country. Finally, "forced" environmental pollution has begun to become "real". In the next few days, a large number of polluting enterprises are required to shut down and meet the requirements of environmental protection, which will inevitably affect the development of China's manufacturing industry. 
 the external difficulties mainly come from the two sides of the high-end manufacturing industry, such as the return of developed countries and the manufacture of low-end products to Southeast Asia and Latin America, and the impact of the lack of raw material pricing and the market protection in Europe and the United States. 
The United States is entering a new era of shale gas. It hopes to become the largest producer of energy in the world. Meanwhile, a new industrial revolution characterized by new manufacturing, synthetic biology, robotics, 3D printing and intelligent cities is taking place. P At present, this does not form a direct competition for the low-end Chinese manufacturing industry, but it is obviously, to a certain extent, to suppress the path of China's upgrading to high-end manufacturing industry. 
 the impact of the transfer from low-end industries is more obvious for Chinese manufacturing. The south wind window reporter recently noted that in the community shopping arcade in Beijing, the products of the popular "H&M a" target= _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "clothing" /a "brand" were sold to Southeast Asian countries such as Bangladesh or Cambodian village. These countries that are close to China as new cost depressions are becoming the destinations for the new round of industrial transfer, and the finished products are being sold back to China in large numbers. 
Less than P, the United States is no longer as committed to promoting a globalized universal market as it has been before, but rather to build a self centered regional economy. TPP, which is under intense negotiations, is a notable example. It is considered to be a piece of chess for the us to contain China. In the TPP arrangement, South America and Southeast Asia are the supply of low-end manufactures. 
 in the raw materials and market, "China buys what is expensive" and a large number of anti-dumping cases make Chinese manufacturing suffer from greater cost pressure and uncertainty. 
All these pressing pressures on P require China to make adjustments. 
 diligently 
, as indicated by the word "crisis", it is also facing opportunities under any "danger" situation. Recognizing that China's economic development stage is facing an objective transformation, taking active and positive measures and gradually changing the industrial and economic structure of China so as to ensure the healthy development of the whole economy and society. 
 the sharp contrast between the cold manufacturing industry and the hot real estate industry with both financial and consumer nature is a huge barrier facing China's economic development in recent years. Because of the downward trend of the manufacturing industry, the government has to adjust its structure in order to maintain economic growth, that is, to create new growth models through technological input and industrial policies. On the other hand, it urgently needs to "sustain growth" and rely on real estate and infrastructure to support China's economic development. 
 over the past few years, the government has been trying to boost industries and industries through various means. When the new premier Li Keqiang took office, he sold the "Chinese equipment" around the world, and was also known as the "high-speed rail salesman" by the international media. Over the past year, he has been making "structural adjustment" and "steady growth" and made a series of specific measures, including tax cuts for small and micro enterprises, and further promoting the camp to increase. But from last year's downward pressure on the economy, the government's phased stimulus measures can clearly see that "steady growth" is still a policy premise. 
 economy and employment are one of the main sources of political identification of governments around the world, not only in China. Economic downturn and high unemployment are often directly related to social upheaval. "Structural adjustment" has more long-term significance, but in reality, it often puts pressure on "maintaining growth". 
Under the dilemma, P is also subject to the problems of the bureaucracy itself. Many measures taken by the government to deal with the manufacturing crisis are of limited effectiveness. For example, the government has vigorously supported the photovoltaic industry to form a large scale surplus; the central government emphasized that the industry should be allowed to return to finance. However, in the case of low industrial profits and huge profits from real estate and local infrastructure financing, there can be no profit seeking capital. Since 2005, a large number of scientific research investment, which is based on the slogan of building an innovative country, has created a group of interest recipients of scientific research funds, but has not significantly improved China's technological innovation capability. 
 a more successful aspect is intra industry transfer. Because of the huge hinterland in China, unlike the general countries, apart from transferring to other countries and regions and upgrading industries, China still has huge internal transfer space. 
Since P began in 2005, enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta started to move to the central and western parts of the country with lower cost, such as land, labor and basic resources. Although entrepreneurs complain from time to time that the investment environment in the Midwest is not standardized, government investment can't go in and out, but after all, China is a centrally centralized state with strong homogeneity. Its exchange costs are much lower than those transferred to foreign countries which are completely unfamiliar. Moreover, the large number of cheap labor force that China has built up relies on these inland, central and western provinces. 
 in recent years, with the manufacturing industry in the southeast coastal area sluggish, the rising trend of manufacturing industry in the central and western provinces such as Henan and Sichuan is obvious. The increase of the total number of migrant workers in the eastern part of the country has dropped down, and the growth in the central and western regions is obvious. This is an important reflection of this phenomenon. Such transfer has created a certain industrial gradient inside China and promoted the balanced development of the whole country. 
 for example, the enterprises in Zhejiang Shaoxing area contacted by the south wind window moved large scale production base to land, labor force and other basic products, including electricity, which are relatively cheap in Anhui, and still retain strong technology, talent and marketing network similar to the "headquarters base" nature. This upgrade mode is a win-win for both places. {page_break} 
 way out 
 from Latin America and other places, we can see that economies with too simple structure are vulnerable to fluctuations in the international market, making it difficult to become a mature economy. China is a big country. In addition to manufacturing all kinds of industrial products for the world, it also needs to go to the higher value added upstream of the value chain of the international manufacturing industry, and needs more diversified forms of economy. 
"P", reshaping China's image in the world market is an important step in upgrading China's manufacturing industry. 
 a Zhejiang businessman who specializes in the Central Asian market says to the south wind window that in the eyes of local consumers, the products of Europe and America are of the best quality, while Turkey is at the middle end, and Chinese products have always been cheap and low quality images. He was very upset about the way his domestic counterparts got orders through low quotations, so as to save money and cut corners. In the past more than 10 years, he has been insisting on the middle quality product with quality assurance. Although he may not get some orders due to the higher price at a time, he has been the best in the circle for a period of time, because the price is higher, but the quality is good, the customers are more frequent, and the profit space is bigger, which forms a healthy and sustainable development. 
Esenli, former Turkey ambassador to China, told reporters during the interview with the south wind window that the quality of some Chinese made products is guaranteed. However, the quality of Chinese export products that are not brand names may be poor, because of the low price and widespread marketing, which has a bad effect on the overall reputation of China made products. He suggests that China can formulate certain quality standards from the government level, which is conducive to the improvement of the quality and reputation of China made in the international market. 
 reality is that although China's manufacturing is facing various problems, China's stable domestic situation, perfect infrastructure, high-quality workforce, industrial chain advantages, mercantile environment, and high and low development gradients still have great advantages. In terms of manufacturing industry, China's more realistic choice is to continue to work hard in the middle end manufacturing market with the good foundation of decades of development, and win the products with high quality and relatively low price. Southeast Asia still plays the main role of "a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ > textile "/a" and "clothing" and other low-end labor intensive industries, and the cost of local labor is also rising sharply. Although the United States is vigorously promoting the "return of manufacturing industry", due to cost considerations, it is unlikely that large-scale direct competition with China will take place in the near future. 
 diversification of economic structure is a more complicated problem. .
(P) the rapid development of the past decades has made Chinese people and government accumulate a lot of capital. China's investment in the world has gradually increased, and some Chinese enterprises have moved to Southeast Asia and Africa, which are also conducive to greater investment returns. In recent years, China's major construction companies have been very active in the Middle East and Africa with their accumulated experience in China, and China's labor force has moved towards the world in another way. 
 in the domestic market, the increase in labor income also means a huge market expansion. The domestic consumer market with about one billion people will have huge space. Outside the world factory, China is also becoming a heavyweight global market, and in fact has formed a bipolar pattern of world factories and world markets. From the frequent "shortage of migrant workers", the outflow of China's manufacturing industry has not caused much employment pressure, and the two yuan system of urban and rural areas is still playing a cushioning role. 
 a popular saying is that China should vigorously develop the service industry, but only the productive service industry can have real room for development. In reality, high-end producer services such as finance, design, marketing and brand are still in the hands of developed countries. The starting salary of university students in China is basically the same as that of ordinary ordinary workers. On the one hand, it reflects the rise of labor costs, and on the other hand, it reflects the limited middle employment space matched with ordinary college students. How to make good use of a large number of university students' resources is an important opportunity for China's economic development in the future. 
 in short, only on the one hand, we should consolidate the advantages of "made in China", and on the other hand, we should explore more economic supporting points of Yuan balance. "China's < a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp "> brand > /a" and "Chinese service" have all been developed, and the whole Chinese economy and society can enter a more balanced and more stable stage of development.