Commentary: Foreign Trade Faces Downward Pressure. RMB Exchange Rate Will Continue To Be Weak.

In the two quarter of this year, exports will be better than that in the first quarter. With the impact of some special factors last year, analysts expect the p to weaken significantly after mid April. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade in May will be positive.

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< p > Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said: "the data are very surprising. I didn't think so bad. There must be a base factor. In the other quarter, the US economy is weaker than expected, and it also has an impact."

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< p > when referring to the recent trend of RMB exchange rate, he pointed out that "the RMB exchange rate has risen from the first quarter to the lower level, the central bank has been guided first, and the market has followed. In the two quarter, it is still expected to depreciate, which will fluctuate between 6.2-6.3 yuan and RMB."

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< p > China Customs announced on Thursday (April 10th) that exports in March dropped by 6.6% compared with the same period last year, while imports dropped by 11.3% compared with the same period last year. The median value of Reuters survey was 4% and 2.4% respectively. The trade surplus of that month was 7 billion 710 million US dollars, and the foreign media forecast a surplus of 900 million US dollars.

In the first quarter, exports dropped by 3.4%, imports increased by 1.6%, and trade surplus narrowed to 59.7% to 16 billion 740 million dollars.

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Zheng Yuesheng, a spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said in response to a reporter's question, "the downward trend in the first quarter of the year is both temporary and short-term. With the impact of some special factors last year, it has obviously weakened since mid April. From May onwards, the import and export will grow again and will enter a relatively stable moderate growth stage."

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< p > he pointed out that foreign trade did encounter some difficulties in the first quarter, but this difficulty could not be overestimated. We should not simply think that there was a recession in foreign trade. If we deducted some special factors in the same period last year, foreign trade will still run in a basically reasonable range.

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Under the influence of false trade, China's export growth unexpectedly rose to a high of 18.4% in the first quarter of last year, P.

The customs press release showed that in the first quarter of 2014, the mainland's import and export volume dropped by 33.3% to Hongkong, which directly affected the overall import and export growth rate of nearly 4 percentage points.

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< p > domestic and foreign financial markets are very comfortable with China's trade data.

The Shanghai stock index in the Chinese stock market remained unchanged on Thursday morning, near the seven week high point hit yesterday. Asia's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > stock market < /a > continued the recent strong uptrend, and the Aussie dollar strengthened against the strong employment data.

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Exports are expected to rise in the two quarter of < p > strong > /strong > /p >

Less than P, China's exports dropped by 18.1% in February compared with the same as the Spring Festival.

Analysts expected that with the return of the Spring Festival effect, even if there was a high base last year, exports could also increase slightly in March this year.

But the fact is that the market is falling apart.

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Ma Hui, deputy general manager of Huarong securities research department, said, "originally expected March is a positive growth rate. Negative growth is due to a higher base factor in the same period last year. Slowing down can be understood, but it is too unexpected to fall so much."

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< p > he pointed out that the decline in exports to Hongkong can be understood, and the performance of the European Union is also good. There is almost no growth in the US. The improvement of the US economy has no obvious effect on China's foreign trade. The growth rate of exports to Japan and ASEAN is very low, although it seems to be positive, but in fact, it is very low.

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"P" Ma said, April is also very difficult to optimistic, mainly because the external situation is not too good, the United States to improve the pulling effect on China's foreign trade has not been clearly manifested, the original advantage weakened, but the new advantage has not yet formed, in May, the possibility of rapid growth is great.

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Statistics released by Customs show that China's bilateral trade value to the EU and the United States increased by 6.3% and 0.9% respectively in the first quarter, up 2.1% and 7.5% respectively last year, and increased only 2% to ASEAN trade, up 10.9% last year. P

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< p > ZHENG Yue said, "after the middle of April last year, the mainland's < a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > "Hong Kong Trade > /a > returned to normal.

It can be predicted that the growth rate of mainland exports to Hong Kong will rise significantly from May this year, and it will also drive the growth of overall exports and imports and exports.

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< p > he thinks that it is possible to achieve 7.5% import and export growth target all year round.

China's foreign trade export leading index rose to 41.7 in March, indicating that exports in the next 2-3 months are relatively optimistic. Exports in the two quarter are expected to rise in the first quarter.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > RMB > /a > exchange rate will remain weak > /strong > /p >

< p > China's trade surplus in March was US $7 billion 710 million, which has changed considerably compared with the deficit of $22 billion 980 million in February.

Many people were worried that the deficit in February would continue. The small surplus would have a psychological support for the exchange rate, but the RMB exchange rate could still remain weak in the near future.

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"P," said Ma Hui Hui, "the pressure of RMB depreciation will continue for some time.

The government has the motive to weaken the exchange rate, the pressure on foreign trade is very large now, and exports are indeed weaker. "

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< p > Xie Yaxuan, director of macroeconomic research of China Merchants Securities, also pointed out that trade items are one of the factors contributing to the weakness of the RMB exchange rate in recent years, but international capital flows and residents' willingness to hold foreign exchange also have an impact on exchange rate.

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< p > he believes that in the future, we should pay more attention to the capital account convertibility measures launched by the Security Council to see if it can play a more significant role in promoting the orderly entry and exit of funds.

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< p > Xie Yaxuan, director of macroeconomic research at China Merchants Securities, said: "the small surplus is not too unexpected. The trade gap has seasonal fluctuations. In February, there was even an unexpected deficit or even a large deficit. In March, it tended to be better than that in February, and it will be better. The surplus of about 7000000000 is still expected, but it has not returned to normal level."

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