The Economic Conference Is Expected To Make A Major Judgement On The Situation.

The central economic work conference convened under the background of the global financial crisis is about to close.

The current Conference on economic trends this year is highly concerned by all sides, not only because it has a fixed effect on China's economic policy next year, but also because of the financial crisis, this meeting is expected to make a major judgement on China's and even the global economic situation.

On the eve of the central economic work conference, the National Bureau of statistics of the central important economic department published the long text of its deputy director Xu Xianchun on its official website.

Xu Xianchun's important exposition in the article is that from the quarterly data, China's economic growth has entered a new downward range from the third quarter of two to seven, and has fallen for five consecutive quarters in the third quarter of this year.

Xu Xianchun also believes that if there are no special circumstances, the rapid growth of China's economy will continue for a longer period, followed by a gradual decline process, but it is still possible to maintain steady and rapid growth.

He said that there are indications that China's economy has reached the crest of the current economic growth in two and seven, with a peak value of eleven point eight percent, and that the economic growth began to fall in two two years.

This investment bank analyst also believes that China's economy will be bottoming out in the two quarter of next year.

Gong Fangxiong, chief economist of JP Morgan, said in a media interview in Shanghai on 8 July that China's economic growth in the fourth quarter was 2% and 7%-8% respectively.

Gong Fangxiong pointed out that the fourth quarter economic growth may be the worst season in this cycle from the perspective of the chain ratio. It has already bottomed out. If we calculate the growth rate in the first quarter, we will predict that the economic growth in the first three quarters of next year will be less than 8%, of which the lowest in the second quarter is expected to be 6.9%, because the growth of the economy will only be bottomed out in the second quarter of next year.

The conference will foreshadowed the four major development signals of China's economy next year. Some media commented here that the meeting will foreshadowed the four major development signals of China's economy next year: ensuring growth, expanding domestic demand, increasing vitality and strengthening people's livelihood.

At present, the environment for China's economic development is becoming increasingly severe, especially the difficulty of maintaining steady and fast economic growth.

From the stimulus measures announced by China, it has become a distinctive feature to pay more attention to economic growth.

The next step, including speeding up the construction of major infrastructure, such as railways, highways and airports, will promote the sustained and balanced development of China's economy in the long run while driving economic growth.

In 2009, the Chinese government will continue to take vigorous measures to expand domestic demand and expand consumer demand in a more prominent position in the light of the rapid development and change of the situation, and enhance the pulling effect of consumer demand on China's economic growth.

Before the ten major measures introduced by China, an important part is to speed up independent innovation and structural adjustment.

In 2009, China will accelerate the reform of key areas, deepen the comprehensive rural reform, accelerate the reform of fiscal and taxation systems, actively and steadily push forward the reform of prices and charges, deepen financial reform, and continue to reform the administrative system and state-owned enterprises.

Authorities say this means that our economic development can no longer go the way we used to be.

Adjusting and changing in response to the crisis and upgrading in the process of adjustment and adjustment will become the only way for China's economic development next year or even longer.

The Central Committee held a meeting earlier, pointed out that we should strive to improve people's livelihood, actively expand employment, implement affordable housing projects in urban and rural areas, improve the social security system, support the development of rural education, strengthen public health care services, vigorously develop cultural undertakings and cultural industries, improve the basic livelihood guarantee policy for low-income people, and earnestly safeguard the rights and interests of the masses.

Economists Fang Gang believes that subsidies, tax cuts and social security systems are all under the Chinese government's consideration. However, long-term solutions to problems need to be set up in a sound allocation mechanism, so that economic growth can be more reflected in the growth of residents' disposable income and the fair distribution of society.

The fundamental tone of the macroeconomic fundamentals will not change. Looking back on the central government's macroeconomic judgement over the past year, from the beginning of the year's "double protection" policy to the "one insurance one control" in the middle of the year, and then to the end of the year, "ensuring growth" has become the primary task of the current macroeconomic regulation and control.

Several judgments of the macroscopic trend proved to be accurate and in place.

The annual central economic work conference will once again judge the current economic situation and set the tone for the economic work of the coming year.

An economist, Chang Shi, told reporters earlier that since China's economy is at its lowest level for decades, the central economic work conference will further refine the economic policies introduced earlier. However, the fundamental tone will not change, or it will ensure growth, promote domestic demand and adjust the structure.

According to expert analysis, from the past experience, the central economic work conference usually set the tone for the coming year, and the relevant ministries and commissions will adjust the fiscal and monetary policies.

This year's central economic work conference will focus on expanding consumption and domestic demand. Coherence in policy also shows that the central government's fundamental view of the macro economy has not changed.

Yang Jing: editor in charge