Cotton Policy Adjustment Causes Cotton Futures Negative Factors To Change

< p > the world is < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > dress < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

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< p > < strong > the period price is below 16000 yuan / ton and has strong competitiveness. < /strong > < /p >

< p > just as market participants generally predicted that cotton prices would have a long and dismal decline this year due to the adjustment of cotton purchase and storage policy this year, a Changyang started to rise. The main contract of Zheng Mian 1501 has seen the biggest increase in Japanese trading since this year, and the volume and positions have also reached the highest level since 2013.

Market oriented invisible hand is pulling the cage of cotton prices for many years, and this year's cotton futures market will be a good match.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp > policy > /a > spring breeze blowing cotton futures market < /strong > /p >

< p > according to the requirements of the 2014 central document No.1 on launching the pilot reform of cotton target price in Xinjiang, in April 5th, with the approval of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of agriculture jointly issued the target price of cotton in 2014 for 19800 yuan / ton.

This marks the beginning of the three year's policy of open storage and storage in Xinjiang.

After the abolition of the temporary purchase and storage policy and the implementation of the cotton target price policy, producers sell cotton at market prices.

When the market price is lower than the target price, the state subsidize the producers in the pilot area according to the difference between the target price and the market price, planting area, yield or sales volume, and when the market price is higher than the target price, the state does not grant subsidies.

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< p > because the target price of 19800 yuan / ton is much higher than that of the previous market expectations, for the zhengmian 1501 main contract which has been hovering in the area of 15700 yuan to 16000 yuan / ton, it appears to be in a hurry to catch up with this policy and get retaliatory inflation.

Compared with the purchase price of 20400 yuan / ton, the target price of 19800 yuan / ton should be 600 yuan / ton, which is the price subsidy that the country is willing to pay.

However, if the cotton price is too low, which is far below the current national standard grade cotton throwing and selling bid price of 17250 yuan / ton, the state can not afford it, rather than 20400 yuan / ton storage price.

Therefore, the bottom line of the state's lowest cotton price should be 600 yuan, or 16650 yuan / ton, at the price of 17250 yuan / ton.

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< p > < strong > the ravines of the huge gap between inside and outside cotton began to fill in < /strong > < /p >

< p > for a long time, domestic and foreign cotton at the same level has been showing a huge price difference of 4000 - 5000 yuan / ton due to the high price of 20400 yuan / ton.

However, at the beginning of the year, the government would cancel the policy of purchasing and storage. The opening price of Zheng cotton forward contract was only 16150 yuan / ton on the day of the 1501 listing, which is far below the price level of 19000 to 20000 yuan / ton in the past month. In addition, in the first quarter, Zheng cotton 1501 contract has been in decline, and the price of less than 16000 yuan / ton has been close to the rising price difference between the US and cotton in the first quarter.

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< p > as of April 14th, China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > Import index closed at 95.45 cents / pound, and the discount sliding duty is about 15970 yuan / ton, which is in line with the 16140 cotton price of the same class domestic cotton 1501 contract futures closing price.

This is a phenomenon that the cotton market has not been in the long run.

If the port fees and other incidental expenses are added, the cost of importing American cotton will be slightly higher than the cost of buying in the futures market.

Therefore, the price of Zhengzhou cotton under 16000 yuan / ton has strong competitiveness.

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< p > < strong > the adjustment of dumping and storage policy is meaningful. < /strong > /p >

< p > a new round of reserve cotton starting from November 28th last year is ongoing and will continue until the end of August this year.

Analysis of the process of dumping and storage can find a positive phenomenon, that is, the recent adjustment of dumping and storage policy will help to speed up the process of removing cotton stocks.

In the early days of the launch of cotton reserves to the end of March, the bid price of the national standard cotton auction was 18000 yuan / ton, and the quota of imported cotton was not tied up, which led to the lack of attractiveness.

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< p > subsequently, the state adjusted the policy of dumping and storage, and decided that the bid price of standard grade cotton was adjusted from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton since April 1st, and the sale of domestic cotton and reserve imported cotton was bundled and sold in proportion to 3:1, and the quantity restriction of "a target=" _blank "href=" http:// www.91se91.com/ "> textile > /a" was also abolished, and the requirement of 500 thousand yuan deposit for textile enterprises to apply for new cotton auction was cancelled.

This series of positive measures has greatly increased the turnover of throwing cotton reserves.

Before the policy adjustment, there were 83 trading days from November 28th to March on 31 days, and the total amount of cotton reserves was 717 thousand and 740 tons, and the average daily turnover was only 8 thousand and 650 tons.

From April 1st to 8, only 5 trading days after the adjustment policy, the total volume of cotton reserves was 214 thousand and 570 tons, with an average daily turnover of 42 thousand and 910 tons, an increase of nearly 5 times.

We can see the effect of the new policy.

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< p > throwing storage means going out of stock. In any case, it is a good starting point to start to stock up. Once the measures to inventory are introduced, the price will go up.

Not only was palm oil in Malaysia, but even the gold price began to rise after the Fed's January implementation of the QE3 seemed bad.

In short, a series of positive shows that the fundamental factors that have long been shrouded in the domestic cotton market are changing qualitatively.

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