Interview With The Institute Of Finance For 09 Years Of China'S Economy

Moderator: at the end of the year, how to deal with the impact of the international financial crisis next year has become the most concerned topic in China's economic development. The central economic work conference closed today gives a series of clear answers. Today, our studio again invited the director of the Institute of finance, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and the famous economist Li Yang.

Hello, miss Li Yang.

I also remember that the direction of macroeconomic policy determined by the central working conference at the end of last year was to prevent overheating and prevent inflation. In the middle of the year, the government turned to maintain growth and control prices. Now it is clear that we should protect growth, control domestic demand and adjust the structure.

How do you see such a big change in policy making in the next three years?

Li Yang: I think this is more normal, because the macro regulation itself has no definite rules. If there is a rule, it is to find the direction of the wind and deal with the business cycle by finding the wind, so if the heat is a bit colder, it will be more cold if it is cold.

You have just said that the change is fast and big, mainly because the situation is too big and too urgent. This reflects that after so many years of discipline, the awareness of regulation and control has increased.

Host: we have noticed that the central economic work conference has put the adjustment structure in a very prominent position in addition to ensuring growth and expanding domestic demand. Adjusting the structure is a big frame. What kind of structure do you think should be adjusted in the structure?

Li Yang: this time, there is a clear difference between the adjustment of structure and the growth of the economy. The decline of economic growth is obvious to all. Therefore, a very inevitable response is to promote the recovery of the market. Since China's economy has been 30 years of reform and opening up, it has already been solved. The past problems have been solved, and now we have new problems. What are the new problems?

It is the general situation of Scientific Outlook on Development, such as reasonable structure, efficiency, quality, environmental pollution and so on.

Therefore, this time, we must pay attention to improving efficiency and improving quality while ensuring growth. We must pay attention to this large-scale investment, do not create obstacles for future growth, and do not bring risks to future economic development, so this adjustment structure is placed in a very prominent position.

The structure is a very general concept. From now on, there are several structures frequently mentioned in our country, such as the structure of domestic demand and external demand, which is quite obvious.

Investment and consumption structure, urban and rural structure, income distribution structure, this economic work conference also highlighted this point.

Because the structure of income distribution is closely related to whether the level of consumption can go up, our research shows that residents' consumption is not rising very fast because the residents' income distribution is decreasing year by year.

Therefore, to solve the problem of insufficient consumption from the root, we must adjust the income distribution system.

And the industrial structure is what we need to adjust.

After 30 years of reform and opening up, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, the economy has already stood at a new starting point and expanded from a new starting point. It must be guided by Scientific Outlook on Development.

Host: this structure actually covers a wide range from macro to micro.

Li Yang: Yes, but there is a specific direction in the specific period of adjustment.

Host: this economic work conference also proposes that structural tax cuts will be carried out next year. What is the difference between the structural tax reduction and the VAT reform we have heard?

Li Yang: structural tax cuts are not professional terms. I suppose there are two main points for structural tax reduction. The first point is that the overall effect is tax reduction, which is consistent with ensuring growth and expanding domestic demand.

But our past tax structure is unreasonable, and the tax is actually stimulated.

In the overall reduction of Taxation, we should pay attention to the growth of tax structure and the current situation of economic development adjustment.

For example, the tax on big displacement cars and the tax reduction of small displacement cars are a case of structural tax adjustment.

For example, the pformation of value-added tax is likely to reduce about 100000000000 of the total tax revenue, but there may be fuel tax and other taxes.

Host: that is to say, our tax reduction space is quite large.

Li Yang: the space is hard to say, because if taxation is used as a policy tool to study it, we should not consider such a problem. China should say that there is still room for reducing taxes. At least, our private tax rate is relatively high.

Host: Miss Li, the decline of PPI is so great. How should we look at this data? I met one of the largest clothing manufacturers in Europe a few days ago. He said that his company did not plan to produce any products in the next two years, totally relying on the consumption of inventory. Is our Chinese enterprises facing such a situation? Many enterprises no longer produce new products, and the prices of raw materials decrease, so PPI decreases.

Li Yang: the change of inventory is only one of the performances. Overall, the decline of the economy, the sharp decrease of customer demand and the decrease of downstream consumption are the comprehensive reasons leading to the decline of PPI.

On the one hand, the decline of PPI reflects the fact that the economy is declining. On the other hand, it also provides a good foundation. China is now boosting the economy, further expanding investment, increasing consumption, decreasing PPI and decreasing CPI. The two price indices will reduce investment costs and reduce consumption costs.

Therefore, correctly facing the decline of PPI and CPI is something that should be done at present.

Host: the current data show that the PPI index is declining, but consumer demand has not recovered significantly. What measures do you think our next fiscal or monetary policy should follow?

Li Yang: the decline of PPI has not directly affected consumption. If CPI falls, consumption has not been clearly picked up is a matter of concern. Now PPI has a distance from consumption.

Whether PPI or CPI falls, the decline is only a signal. If fiscal policy and monetary policy take measures according to this signal, we must ensure growth, expand domestic demand and adjust the structure.

It is all economic signals that make us resolute in our determination to do so.

Host: the data released by the General Administration of customs today suggest that the real winter of Chinese export enterprises has not yet come in. Next year, the situation will be even more severe. You have said that imports and GDP have a direct relationship, and exports and employment are directly related. What kind of conclusion should we draw from the current severe situation, is it necessary to increase export tax rebates?

Li Yang: the increase in export tax rebate should be strengthened. It is a must for the current growth and is also in line with international practice.

The figures released by the General Administration of customs today are worth pondering carefully. The total value of imports and exports has dropped by 9%, and the decline in external demand is obvious.

Imports dropped by 17.9% and exports dropped by 2.2%.

China's import and export is different from the classic theory because of its different structure and different stages of development. Our imports were closely related to investment through GDP, so imports dropped by 17.9%, reflecting the decline in investment, decline in imports and exports, and GDP.

Yang Jing: editor in charge