European Bank Dynamics Are Uncertain Whether Market Reaction Is Premature.

< p > yesterday, the US dollar index continued to rise, refreshing nearly 1 and a half months high of 80.58. There were varying degrees of decline in the non US currencies, especially in the euro and sterling. The euro and the US dollar failed to hold back the support interval of 1.3610 before, and finally the 1.36 pass was also completely lost. The pound and the US dollar exchange rate fell more than a hundred points, while the spot gold price once again refreshed its lowest level since February 10th. < /p >
< p > the market believes that the easing of Euro silver is expected to continue to drag on the euro. Yesterday, there was no further important economic data released by the United States. The result of the early election of Ukraine and the European parliament election has been chewed away by market investors. Therefore, the crucial policy conference held by the European Central Bank in June 5th has once again become the biggest focus of attention. < /p >
< p > < strong > Euro silver action or iron plate nail < /strong > /p >
< p > data show that the unexpected increase in unemployment in Germany and the slowdown in the money supply in the euro area have increased the possibility of more stimulus policies by the European Central Bank, and the anticipation of certain policy actions of the European Central Bank has been heating up. This is a key reason for the recent poor performance of the euro. < /p >
< p > data show that although the unemployment rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.7% in May, the number of unemployed people increased by 24 thousand. This seems to mean that any member of the euro zone can not be independent when effective stimulus easing monetary policy continues to fail. This further reduces the threshold of the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts and even purchases of debt. < /p >
At P's policy press conference in early May, Delaki, the European central bank governor, made it clear that the June meeting might be the right time for the European Central Bank to introduce more easing measures, which made investors look forward to it. The European Central Bank may have to take action, as economic growth and inflation do not show signs of recovery, coupled with the liquidity crisis brought about by the lack of interbank dismantling in the money market. < /p >
< p > a survey released yesterday showed that the European community generally expects that the ECB will reduce its deposit interest rate from zero to -0.1% at the June policy meeting, and that the refinancing rate may also be reduced from 0.25% to 0.1%. The ECB may reduce its deposit interest rate to below zero and provide new long-term funds for banks to lend to SMEs. The so-called long-term refinancing operation will also be launched at the same time to help boost euro zone credit. < /p >
< p > the current market concern is no longer whether the ECB will act or not, but what kind of action it will take. In view of the fact that the specific details of the European Central Bank's views remain silent, there is no final conclusion, so the market cautious situation still exists to a certain extent. < /p >
P, the European central bank executive, said on Wednesday that the ECB meeting might produce a policy mix next week to deal with low inflation and low credit growth, but the timing of implementation may vary. The implementation of the measures will depend on the preparation. The ECB has not seen the recent deflation risk, but the central bank has prepared for this prospect. < /p >
Since the beginning of this month, the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar has continued to decline, which has highlighted the effect of the European Central Bank's easing expectations. Although Mr Merck said in his speech on Wednesday, the exchange rate has a certain effect on the euro area inflation performance, but it will not become the target of the European Central Bank's Policy Governance. P < /p >
< p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > European Central Bank > /a > will announce the policy interest rate at next week's meeting, and may also announce targeted liquidity measures. However, the European Central Bank immediately launched a large-scale asset purchase measure, that is, the so-called quantitative easing measures are still difficult, and its more secure approach may be to lower inflation expectations, especially short-term inflation expectations, and lay the groundwork for the eventual introduction of QE in the future. < /p >
< p > of course, many policy measures of the European Central Bank still need the cooperation of the largest economies in the euro area. Earlier this month, President Wiedemann of the Bundesbank, in his speech, gave a green light to the prospect of easing action by the European Central Bank in June, which gave market investors more confidence in the future. Yesterday, the economic downturn in Germany's employment data also increased the urgency of easing measures by the European Central Bank. < /p >
< p > since the European central bank governor Delaki took action in June, the euro has fallen 400 points continuously, which is still a big decline compared with the euro's amplitude of more than 500 points this year. Therefore, the author thinks that the market has overreacted to the easing expectations of the European Central Bank, so that even when the ECB meeting takes place in June, the euro can show much performance. Is it necessary to continue to sell the facts to sell news? < /p >
< p > < strong > GDP is expected to be pessimistic < /strong > /p > in the first quarter of the US.
< p > today, the first quarter of the United States, the actual GDP correction value will be the most important in the day. Earlier, due to the extreme cold weather, since the fourth quarter of last year, the US economy has been greatly dragged down. The market participants expect that the US GDP growth in the first quarter will increase by 0.1% from the initial value to a further 0.5% to minus growth. < /p >
< p > Beijing time 20:30 on Thursday evening, the US "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> commerce department" /a "will announce the first quarter actual GDP correction value, the annual rate is expected to shrink by 0.5%, and the former value will increase by 0.1%. Despite the recent improvement in US data since the two quarter, the US dollar index has continued to rise in the near future, but many market participants may still be worried about the US GDP in the first quarter or playing the role of a stumbling block on the upward path of the US dollar. < /p >
< p > this expectation is obviously not consistent with the rising trend of the US dollar at the present time. I believe many investors may have begun to worry that such a weak a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > GDP < /a > is expected to suppress the rise of the US dollar. < /p >
< p > the market believes that investors need not worry too much about the possible negative growth of the US economy in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter, the performance of the US economy was sluggish. On the one hand, it might have been affected by the severe cold weather. On the one hand, the first quarter of the year itself was relatively slow. < /p >
< p > that is to say, even if GDP is revised to shrink by 0.5% in the first quarter, the general trend of the US economic growth and the Fed policy will not change fundamentally. What the market needs more attention is the performance of the US economy in the two quarter. < /p >
< p > in addition to GDP data, the United States will also have two important statistics released this week, including the number of initial jobless claims after last week's quarter adjustment and the signed sales index for housing sales after the April NAR quarter adjustment. At the end of the month and the next super week, the market for the last two trading days of this week is still quite obvious. < /p >