Six Months' Performance Disclosure Period Should Be Alert To The Risk Of Listed Companies' Performance.

Here world clothing shoes The Xiaobian of the hat net is to introduce the disclosure period of listed companies, and guard against the risk of achievement.

Since June, listed companies have welcomed the performance disclosure period, and performance growth has become a major factor affecting the short-term trend of the market.

According to statistics, as of last week, a total of 953 listed companies disclosed earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of nearly 38%. Overall, the growth rate in the first half of this year is slightly better than that in the same period in 2013. Among them, TMT, chemical industry, machinery and equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries have the largest number of disclosures, close to 50% of the total number of pre disclosure companies. The company that forecasts net profit is positive has reached 704, and the company that forecasts net profit is negative is 97. Among them, 224 companies that predicted losses and prepaid growth accounted for 23.5% of all companies that disclosed the results, and 226 of the companies that reported the first loss, pre reduction and slight reduction, accounted for 24%.

From the industry point of view, the net profit growth of the chemical industry is relatively prominent. 7 of the top 20 companies with the largest net profit growth belong to the chemical industry. The growth rate of the first increase of the company is 136 times. However, among the largest companies with the largest net profit decline, the chemical industry is also in the minority.

Similar cases also occur in machinery, electrical equipment, cement and other industries. For the industry with larger performance differentiation, it is difficult to form obvious plate effect, and it may become a stock market. The proportion of companies with positive growth in pharmaceutical manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, building decoration, wholesale and other industries is the most concentrated. For example, more than 60% of the companies in the automobile manufacturing industry have relatively clear growth, and nearly 78% of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is growing. Spin Clothing, retail and other industries are still relatively low, most of the company's performance has declined, and the proportion of real estate performance decline is relatively high.

One of the functions of performance forecast is to prevent investors from excessive deviation from the company's expectations, and market expectations are revised according to the company's performance forecast. At present, the performance notice of listed companies is concentrated in late July, and the stock price has basically reflected the growth of the company's performance. In the companies with substantial growth in performance forecasts, the stock price trend is generally stronger than the market average. For example, the jobless stock, which has the largest growth rate, has risen by more than 100% since the announcement, and some of the companies with larger earnings forecasts have experienced a substantial increase in the share price before the announcement. Such companies have a risk of performance cashing in the performance disclosure period, which is the general rule of the disclosure period. However, for some industries, if the performance is outstanding, they will support the whole year's performance. Instead, they will form new expectations to drive the company's share price to continue to strengthen, but the proportion of such companies is relatively small.

From the standpoint of performance, more prominent industries such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles and so on are worth looking forward to. In addition, some of the earlier downturn in industry performance will be further clarified and highlighted.

Looking ahead, July is the economic data intensive period and the observation period. Listed company The beginning of the performance disclosure period is expected to follow the steady growth policy in the two quarter. The two quarter economic data is expected to show a stable trend, and the policy stage has entered the observation period. However, the real estate industry chain problem has not been improved and there is still potential for further negative fermentation. We should pay close attention to it. In the performance of listed companies, combined with market expectations, market performance expectations need to be revised downward. Overall, the market is still likely to face some challenges.