Global Cotton Outlook Ahead Of US Cotton Or Bottom Up Before Autumn Harvest

< p > > the world's < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > shoes > hat > net to the small weave to introduce the New York Cotton autumn harvest before or bottom up. < /p >
Since P, May, international cotton futures have fallen sharply, while US cotton prices have dropped to their lowest level in nearly 5 years, and have recorded the longest consecutive 55 consecutive years. Analysts pointed out that, at present, the United States high cotton inventories, demand is suppressed. Looking ahead, if the global cotton demand increases, the US cotton will be able to recover its bottom before the autumn harvest. < /p >
< p > < strong > supply and demand imbalance: a long bear road < /strong > < /p >
Since May this year, the international cotton futures have opened a slow bear road. According to reporter statistics, since May 6th, the US cotton index has fallen 29.8% in three months, close to the lowest point in 5 years, and the US cotton main contract has also set a record of the longest fall in nearly 55 years. Over the same period, cotton fell by 18% in the India commodity exchange. < /p >
< p > "US cotton" this round of decline is mainly due to imbalance between supply and demand. On the one hand, the global supply of cotton continues to increase. Although China's output has been reduced by nearly 10%, the increase in cotton production in the United States and other cotton regions has exceeded China's pre production, and the overall supply has continued to increase. On the other hand, downstream cotton demand is relatively weak. The increase in demand and supply has made the end of global cotton stocks continue to rise, and the oversupply of cotton market has led to the continuous decline of US cotton. Hualian futures researcher Ding Yongxin said. < /p >
< p > as for the reasons for the increase in cotton production in the United States, Xu Yuanyuan, a futures researcher at Huatai the Great Wall, pointed out that in the United States, the price of US cotton in this year is at a high level, which has prompted us farmers to expand their cotton planting area. At the same time, the weather in the main cotton regions of the United States is good, which is good for cotton growth and will help us cotton production increase. < /p >
< p > the latest global cotton demand and supply forecast released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in July showed that the total output of cotton in the year of 2014/2015 was 25 million 348 thousand tons, an increase of 109 thousand tons compared with the previous month, and the stock at the end of the year rose to 23 million 9 thousand tons again, an increase of 645 thousand tons, up 5.1% over the current year. The latest data from the US Department of agriculture (USDA) also showed that cotton production in the United States increased 3 million 592 thousand tons in the next year and increased by 326 thousand tons, an increase of 27.8% over the current year. At the end of the year, the stock was estimated at 1 million 132 thousand tons, a 92.5% increase over the current year. < /p >
< p > "at the end of demand, the adjustment of China's cotton policy is the fuse for us cotton to fall." Galaxy futures cotton researcher Chen Xiaoyan believes that after three consecutive years of massive purchase and storage of high prices, the global cotton prices have played a significant support. However, as China no longer implements the policy of temporary collection and storage, the cotton price in the new year is expected to decline significantly, which will create pressure on the US cotton market. < /p >
< p > Chen Xiaoyan also pointed out that in the next year, China has a larger inventory of state-owned cotton stocks, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > cotton significantly reduced, and the government has reduced the demand for us cotton in order to reduce the pressure on the stock of national stocks or to release part of the state reserve stock while strictly controlling the amount of cotton flower imports. < /p >
< p > data show that nearly 80% of the cotton produced in the United States is used for export, of which the Chinese market accounts for 20% to 40% of the US cotton export share. < /p >
< p > Nanhua futures analyst Xiao Yan told reporters that this year, the focus of the market has shifted from the previous year's stock tension to the next year's supply pressure. After a series of rises, the market returned to calmness, and suddenly discovered that USDA has increased the planting area and output of the US cotton in the new year. This is one reason why the US cotton reversed in May. < /p >
< p > < strong > policy is expected to help stabilize the internal market < /strong > < /p >
< p > although the US cotton has entered a bear Road, Zheng cotton has shown obvious signs of stabilization since mid July on the domestic market. In the first three trading days of this week, Zheng cotton's main contract increased 4.78%. < /p >
< p > market participants generally believe that Zheng cotton has rebounded sharply, both with policy controversy and fundamental factors. < /p >
< p > on the policy side, although the domestic cotton market has taken the pace of marketization, it is still difficult to get rid of the color of policy market in the short term. At present, the domestic cotton market pays more attention to when the Xinjiang direct subsidy rules will be promulgated. Although the relevant departments decided to make a direct subsidy policy in Xinjiang in the 2014/2015 year, the direct subsidy rules have not yet been released. The market is always in doubt. It is concerned about whether the total amount of direct subsidy is limited, whether it can be put in place or not. < /p >
< p > on the basic level, after September, the time of new cotton's listing may be postponed. The state or no longer put cotton reserves into the market, relying only on part of the industrial and commercial stocks and a small amount of imported cotton, resulting in a tight supply in the domestic stage. < /p >
< p > "the United States cotton market is completely market-oriented, and in the short trend, the overall trend is relatively smooth. The Chinese market is still affected by the cotton policy, and the downward process is relatively stagnating. In the short term, Zheng cotton performs better than American cotton. Chen Xiaoyan pointed out. < /p >
< p > < strong > Mei cotton or looking for the bottom in the near future < /strong > < /p >
< p > from the trend of US cotton, the rhythm of US cotton export contract and the trend of US cotton are highly correlated. US cotton prices are generally low in 7 and August after the sale of cotton in the old year. They rebounded slightly in September, and fell in 10 and November. Historical data also show that cotton prices tend to hit bottom before autumn. At the end of the summer, has the price of American cotton been shown at the bottom? < /p >
< p > demand. At present, the amount of cotton signed in advance in the US 2014/2015 is more than 800 thousand tons, which is higher than that of the same period last year. Some textile factories in China, Vietnam and Turkey began to sign cotton for the new year. However, Chen Xiaoyan pointed out that from the total and rhythm perspective, the cotton currently signed is more used for phasing replenishment, and it is difficult to judge whether the US cotton sales will continue to be optimistic. At present, we still need to focus on the relative signing situation of the US cotton and the result of competition with India cotton. < /p >
< p > "the import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in China will shrink in the future. However, the import volume of Bangladesh and other countries has increased significantly. If we can sterilise the quantity originally exported to China, the US cotton stocks will decrease accordingly, which will help us cotton to stabilize and rebound." Fu Xiaoyan said. < /p >
< p > supply side, Ding Yongxin believes that if there is no major abnormal weather in the main cotton area in the late stage, the supply increase can basically be determined. It is estimated that the US cotton will have strong support near 60 cents / pound. < /p >
< p > from a technical point of view, the US cotton speculators recently cut cotton long positions by about 75%, the lowest level since December 2012. Earlier, similar events in 2008 and 2012 soon brought prices to the bottom. < /p >
< p >, however, Xu Yuanyuan reminds us that we need to pay attention to the USDA report in August. If the report further increases the yield of US cotton, it may lead to a decrease in the probability of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > US cotton < /a >. < /p >