RMB Intermediate Price Ended Four Consecutive Falls, Spot Exchange Rate Hit A New High Of Six Months

It is understood that in the past 3 weeks, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has continued to fall, while the spot exchange rate has remained at a recent high and narrow range until the 6.14 pass yesterday.

Market analysts told reporters that the exchange rate is lower than the spot price at the spot, and the deviation is also increasing. That is to say, the idea that the intermediate price and the spot exchange rate were posted together did not appear before.

Next, the spot rate is more likely to be appreciating in a small and moderate way.

Yesterday, China

Data released by the trading center showed that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 31 basis points to 6.1666, ending the 4 consecutive trading days.

Reporters noted that since June 3rd this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has fluctuated between 6.1443~6.1710, during which there were 4 close to 6.1710, and 3 close to 6.1443.

The latest wave of depreciation began in August 12th (6.1517), and accumulated a depreciation of 180 basis points in the next 3 weeks to 6.1697 (September 4th).

Wind data show that yesterday, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar (enquiry) rose 26 basis points (0.04%) to 6.1386.

Spot exchange rate rose to the highest level of 6.1339, and set a new high since March 12, 2014 (6.1400).

"Now the exchange rate is lower than the spot price, and the deviation is also increasing. This indicates that the idea that the intermediate price and the spot exchange rate were posted together did not appear before."

China Merchants Bank (600036, stock bar) Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at the financial market department of the head office, told the daily economic news reporter that if the central bank does not have loose pricing power, then at least it shows that the central bank does not want the RMB to appreciate rapidly.

Future or shock litres

Meanwhile,

Recently, it has climbed steadily, rising from the 81.50 level in the middle of August to the current level of 82.90. Overnight, it broke through the 83 integer pass and rose to 83.06.

Then, does the strength of the US dollar inhibit the expectation of the domestic market for the RMB exchange rate and further affect the trend of the exchange rate?

"The appreciation of the US dollar will affect the domestic judgement of the RMB exchange rate, and the rise or fall of the renminbi will directly determine the scale of domestic and foreign currency deposits.

In the first half of the year, the central bank announced its withdrawal from normalization intervention, and the market is still uncertain about the trend of the renminbi.

In a previous report, Liu Dongliang pointed out that from the point of view of foreign exchange settlement and sale at the end of the business, as the RMB entered the revaluation channel after June, although the strength of the settlement of foreign exchange increased, compared with the previous one, the settlement of foreign exchange was still mild.

In an interview with reporters yesterday, Liu Dongliang said there was no clear evidence to prove that the short-term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate was directly affected by the US dollar trend. "The trend of spot exchange rate may be largely determined by the strength of foreign exchange settlement."

Liu Dongliang said that if the settlement plate is large, the renminbi may appreciate; if the strength of the settlement plate is relatively small, the situation will be reversed.

"The gradual increase in the settlement rate should be the trend of the times. In fact, foreign exchange in July is also increasing.

Next, the exchange rate should not fluctuate greatly, neither will it rise sharply, nor will it depreciate significantly. The greater possibility is the appreciation of small and medium shocks.

Liu Dongliang told reporters.