A Shares Bull Market Logic Is Not Changed, The Fund'S Callback Is The Opportunity To Layout.

A share bull market mentality unchanged

After more than a dozen trading days after the rapid attack, the multi-party force finally failed for a short time. On the 8 night, when the new rules on the bond market came out, the 9 day market plunged sharply.

Plunged 5.43%, the largest decline in 5 years, the largest decline in a single day, 3000 points in a row and 2900 points two points, market sentiment was tense.

On the following day, the market came back again, the stock index rose 2.93%, and the SME board and the growth enterprise board rose 3.88% and 4.52% respectively, recovering the previous day's decline.

In this regard, the fund also showed a more consistent optimism.

Dacheng Fund analysis said that the main feature of this round of market is that this round of leverage has been leveraged. Many investors have chosen to raise funds for securities firms to buy stocks.

However, in the process of rising market, the risk of buying capital of stocks at a high level is even more magnified. Once the wind direction changes, financing funds will flock out, resulting in passive liquidation. Investors who use financing leverage may face great losses.

However, from the point of view of capital, before the logic of the equity assets goes well, the fluctuation of the market will continue to increase. Overall, in the long run, the equity market will probably rise in a big concussion under the condition of ample funds.

Haitong Fund pointed out that the early capital into the field too fast, the index showed an upward trend of acceleration, short-term shocks are inevitable, the future

Will enter a wide range of shocks.

In the context of current investment themes, high investment funds and continuous investment enthusiasm, it is expected that the market will still be in a strong shock pattern. If there is any correction in the short term, it will be the right time to lower the layout.

Taida Hongli Fund pointed out that the recent rapid rise of more than a dozen trading days, making the two sides of the nerves have been tight, coupled with the emotional instability of the financing plate, so that the adjustment of the index has become a hair trigger.

At this time, capital and market sentiment indicators have become the key factors affecting the short-term market trend.

But in the medium to long term, the logic of the bull market has not changed. The sharp fall in the market on Tuesday is to restore investors' sense of reason and reshape the awe of the market.

The negative effects will be reflected in the year.

In terms of the new rules, although the stock debt has responded to a big drop, the Fund pointed out that in the short term, the bond market is indeed facing a policy shock, but the macro fundamentals and liquidity still support the debt base trend.

Dacheng Fund said, in the short term, because the debt rating is AAA grade and the main rating AA and above (excluding AA outlook negative), the two conditions will cancel the repurchase qualification, which will have a significant impact on the liquidity of the bond market, especially the exchange market.

However, the macroeconomic fundamentals are still more favorable to the bond market. In order to reduce the cost of social financing, there is still room for further reduction of interest rates and reduction of the standard. The sharp rise in short-term yields will bring good opportunities for future deployment.

Hai Fu said that the short-term impact on the bond market will be a significant impact. It is estimated that most of the city's corporate bonds will not qualify for the pledge of the exchange. Even if they are pferred to the interbank, the rate of pledge may also be significantly reduced, and the valuation will be shrunk. For the highly leveraged operation, the debt base may face redemption pressure, which will further trigger the selling pressure of bonds, of which the better liquidity and quality varieties may be sold first, and interest rate debt and high-grade bonds will also be affected.

It is expected that this negative impact will be fully reflected in this year. It will bring a blow to bond prices, but yields on debt based bonds will decline. But convertible bonds are limited by the support of the stock market.

However, this adjustment can also reflect the good quality and low price buying varieties. It is not ruled out that the short-term investment climate will shift to interest rate bonds and high-grade bonds.

If adjusted properly, there will still be opportunities for debt basis next year.

Shang Morgan also believes that the new rule of the pledge will cause the bond fund to face the liquidity impact of forced deleveraging in the short term. Some of the securities may fall and there is a risk of wrongful killing. However, the impact of liquidity will raise the cost of social financing, which may trigger the government to introduce relevant policies for the good bond market.

From the fundamental analysis, the factors that support the bond market are not reversed. Monetary policy is still necessary for continued easing. The short-term bond market callback is expected to provide the timing for the new debt base; and interest rate upward will give investors a better chance to intervene, which will create conditions for the recovery of the bond market in the first quarter of next year.