Fed Raise Interest Rate: The Impact Is Mainly On Overseas Financing Prices.

Overall, the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China will be indirect and limited.

As a domestic entity economy, it may not be very obvious. We judge that its impact will be mainly on the overseas financing price, that is, the US dollar LIBOR and the US bond interest rate.

Great influence.

The US dollar LIBOR is the price benchmark for overseas financing. LIBOR usually follows the Fed's benchmark interest rate and will respond to the benchmark interest rate 1-2 months ahead of schedule.

Therefore, it is estimated that LIBOR will trend upward in the two or three quarter of next year and will continue until the end of next year.

In 3 months, LIBOR will probably go up to 25-50 BP, and in 2016, it may go up to 75 BP.

U.S.A

Yields will also trend upward in the future, which will be issued overseas.

With the downward trend of domestic financing costs, some enterprises may return to the territory for financing, but companies subject to quota restrictions and rating restrictions may still choose to issue us dollar bonds abroad.

Looking back in 2014, the forward price of RMB has experienced a substantial increase after March. This is not entirely driven by the expectation of depreciation, but rather to a large extent influenced by changes in domestic and foreign currency spreads.

As the amount of settlement decreased, the US dollar deposits in the banking system increased significantly, and the US dollar interest rate continued to slide. The lower US dollar interest rate needed to be compensated through the forward price premium, which directly drove the expansion of the long-term premium. After the fourth quarter, with the upward trend of the RMB capital interest rate, the spread of the foreign currency spreads further, pushing the 1 year long forward to more than 1700 points.

It is expected that under the guidance of the easing policy, the future interest rate of funds will be relaxed from the tighter state in the fourth quarter, which will make the US dollar forward fall down gradually, and the swap point will also go down in the future.

In addition, the offshore exchange rate shows a fluctuating, fluctuating and more predictable character. It is expected that the fluctuation of offshore exchange rate will be higher with the increase of the RMB exchange rate volatility in 2015 years, which means that more opportunities will be provided for cross-border trading.