Davos Business Forum

In the face of the snowy snow in the Alps and the blue sky in Davos, the global media are guessing what Li Keqiang is thinking. The answer is hidden in his speech: "I climbed the top of a small town near Davos, overlooking Davos, which is indeed a beautiful, tranquil and serene Town, but the world we are in is not calm or even tranquil."

A quiet world is the annotation of Li Keqiang's "global new situation" in 2015, and how to resolve this "calmness" is perhaps the whole answer of global investors.

"Macro policy is important, but structural reform is imperative."

Li Keqiang said in his speech.

Angela Babel, an Asian policy analyst at New York - based Rong Ding consulting, said: "the Chinese prime minister, through his speech, conveyed to the world the Chinese government's determination to drive economic growth with reform, which would be China's best commitment to the global economic prospects."

The prophet of warm spring duck.

Just before Li Keqiang gave the attribution of "calmness" in 2015, entrepreneurs who had been swimming all the year round in the economic tide had already felt the change of "water temperature".

100 of the 1500 entrepreneurs who participated in the Davos Economic Forum were members of the global billionaire club. Although they are the top 1% in the world, they did not feel relaxed and happy in the world-famous resorts. A kind of uneasiness that was once known has returned.

In their view, relations between Russia and Ukraine, low oil prices, volatile money markets, economic deflation and terrorism will become an important factor in the world's instability.

"I am considering whether to invest in Picasso's paintings because I do not think other investments are more secure.

The price of oil will probably drop to around $45 per barrel in early 2016, which is expected to disrupt the global economy.

Godrej, a 72 year old India billionaire, has participated in more than 20 times of discussions at a private forum. "Although we see beautiful scenery in Davos, what we need to face is a more ugly reality - the health of the world economy is worse than a year ago," said Godrej.

Even the seemingly calm and serene Swiss Bank of Davos, whose central bank announced 3 days ago to abandon the CHF's lower Euro limit, has also made the market panic.

The terrorist attack earlier this month in Paris, France, further deepened this sense of panic.

"We are just worrying about it, and constantly guessing where there will be an unexpected shock."

Anne Richards, chief investment officer of Aberdeen Asset Management.

Entrepreneurs who came to Davos were busy exchanging their worries, while entrepreneurs who did not come to Davos chose to panic alone.

Most of the billionaires in Russia were absent from the forum as the "emerging forces" of the Davos Economic Forum.

The decline in oil prices has sharply reduced their wealth, and political isolation has prevented them from attending public places.

"In the mountain cottage in the Alps, I invite some business friends to exchange their predictions on the economy while drinking red wine. This is almost the main content of my new year holiday in the past 5 years, and this year I choose to see what they will say on TV.

A rich man named Sergei Viminko, who is engaged in metallurgy and iron and steel industry, said.

The uneasy atmosphere over Davos seems to represent the mood of most of the business elite in the world.

In January 20th, PWC released a report on the confidence survey of 1300 global CEO, and reported that 37% of the people who think the global economy will improve in 2015 is far below 44% last year.

In the many reasons leading to the decline of global business confidence, China's economic growth has become the most serious "heart disease" of global entrepreneurs.

Heart must be treated with medicine.

Faced with the world's worries about China's economic growth, the Chinese government has been trying to provide a good medicine for it, and confidence is undoubtedly the best medicine to soothe the panic.

The Davos Forum provides the most ideal platform for the Chinese government to explain its confidence in the new normal.

Without any coincidence or deliberate action, every trip to Davos by the Chinese premier will become a "blow up meeting" that will soon change in China.

This time, the prime minister is the "leader", and this Davos delegation has become the highest specification in 5 years.

Such a high standard of travel is bound to carry different signals.

In his speech in January 21st, Li Keqiang first issued a "strong signal". "China's economy will not have a" hard landing ". China's economy has entered a new normal stage. The new situation has increased the necessity of structural reform, and China's economic adjustment reflects the trend of the world economy.

In order to further clarify his confidence in the new normal of China's economy, Li Keqiang likened the current economic situation in China to skiing. The good grasp of the three elements of speed skiing, balance and courage in the skiing process constituted the three dimensions of China's full confidence in the world's new normal to the world.

At speed, China will no longer pursue the past.

Instead, look for a sustainable medium and high speed growth.

On balance, China will grasp the relationship between steady growth and structural adjustment.

In terms of courage, China promises to stick to the reform.

Li Keqiang said: "if China's economy is to withstand downward pressure, it must achieve" double high ", then we must say" no "to traditional thinking.

We applaud the innovation system and are determined to push ahead with structural reform. "

"Before leaving China for Davos, China has just released its worst annual GDP growth figures in 24 years, and with such a poor pcript to Davos, it just proves the confidence of the Chinese government in its new normal economy in another aspect."

Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of world economics, China Institute of international relations, said: "the Chinese government is confident enough to tolerate further slowdown in economic growth, so as to realize its commitment to stimulate growth through reform, rather than stimulating growth in the form of credit support for investment, and adjust China's economic growth structure to a healthy track based on domestic demand."

Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance of Renmin University of China, believes that the Chinese government's confidence in the new normal comes from its determination to persist in reform. "The old growth mode of China has been nearly eliminated. At the same time, a new mode of China's economic growth will rely more on innovation, services and domestic consumption.

This change will redefine the economic links between China and the rest of the world.

China will change from the world factory to the capital export market.

As a guarantee for China

Li Keqiang, another important tool for smooth operation, stressed that China will continue to maintain its strategic positioning, implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, "do not engage in flood irrigation, but pay more attention to pre regulation," and better implement directional regulation to ensure that economic operation is in a reasonable range.

"Now,

Leaders are trying to postpone and reduce the psychological expectations of the market for loose monetary policy, but the core of the problem is that if the expansion rate of private consumption is not enough to offset the impact of investment decline, the Chinese government will still have to take action in the coming months.

Liu Ligang, chief economist of Greater China in ANZ bank, said.

In January 22nd, Li Keqiang's speech in Davos remained unheard of. The European Central Bank took over the Federal Reserve and opened the banknote printing machine.

In the 18 month debt purchase plan of the ECB, it will injecting about 1 trillion and 80 billion euros into the market.

The Chinese government has passed the Davos platform to the world to convey the determination of reform and confidence in the new normal. The next task will be how to achieve it in 2015.