The Spot Market Is Weak, And PTA'S Decline Is Hard To Come To An End.

Looking back at the trend of PTA2014, PTA production enterprises limited production and insured prices directly created a rapid rebound from May to August.

However, with the aggravation of overcapacity of PTA, the effect of PTA production enterprises on limiting production and insurance prices is greatly reduced.

In the four quarter of 2014, there was a news that PTA manufacturers had limited production and insured prices. Although PTA futures had a rebound in early November and mid November, the resilience and duration were significantly weaker than those from May to August.

Statistics show that as of the end of 2014, China's PTA production capacity was about 43 million 400 thousand tons, an increase of 10 million 200 thousand tons compared with 2013, an increase of 30.7%.

The expansion of industry capacity will end in 2015. It is estimated that the new capacity of 8 million 150 thousand tons will increase by 18.8% in 2015, and the total capacity of PTA will reach the peak of 51 million 550 thousand tons.

With the increase of production capacity, domestic PTA factory operation rate has dropped sharply, and the load of PTA plant in 2014 is only 68%.

Combined with new capacity growth and demand growth, it is estimated that the PTA plant load will drop to 62% in 2015.

This means that the price limit of PTA production enterprises will further weaken in the future.

Crude oil prices of raw materials PX and its upstream source have dropped sharply in recent years, making PTA production cost move down.

It is worth mentioning that, with the continued release of PX capacity,

Supply and demand have gradually shifted from the previous tension to easing. This is also one of the main reasons why the PX price in 2014 continued to be weak in 2013.

The data of treasure island show that in 2014, the PX capacity of Asia was about 41 million 500 thousand tons, and the annual PX output was about 31 million 100 thousand tons based on 75% operating rate.

Last year, the PTA production capacity was about 65 million tons. According to the 0.66 tonne PX production rate of 1 tons PTA and 68%, PX demand was about 29 million 170 thousand tons last year.

It is estimated that the supply of PX in Asia last year was over 1 million 930 thousand tons.

Before 2013, the supply of PX in Asia was in short supply.

The latest spot market data show that

PTA market price quoted price is 4420 - 4430 yuan / ton (delivered), Yisheng offer price 4410 yuan / ton (self mention), compared with the beginning of the year 4600 yuan / ton quotation has a big decline.

At the same time, from the middle of December last year, the spot price of PTA showed a premium on futures prices.

From the industrial chain start up situation, the domestic PTA factory operation rate is 76.5%, the polyester plant's utilization rate is 76.5%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom's utilization rate is only 45%.

In terms of inventory, the average PTA inventory of PTA manufacturers and polyester enterprises is maintained at 4.5 days.

These two sets of data confirm the overall weakness of the PTA spot market.

With the continuous production of new capacity, the overcapacity of the PTA industry will further intensify, and the control capacity of PTA production enterprises will be greatly reduced.

As the upstream source product of PTA, crude oil price has not yet come to a clear bottoming signal, and PX price will continue to run weak.

At the same time, the downstream demand of PTA has not improved, and the spot price of PTA has been premium for futures prices.

There is no fundamental change in the fundamentals of PTA supply and demand, and price declines are hard to come to an end.

However, the international crude oil price rose sharply last Friday, making the market's stronger expectations for crude oil prices bottomed out. Investors can wait and see, and wait for the crude oil price trend to be further defined before entering the market.