PTA Imbalance Between Supply And Demand: Competition Within The Industry Is Inevitable.

2014

The limited production and insurance price of the industry has a greater impact on the spot price of PTA. The factory has a planned control of the starting rate, and maintains a better processing profit by tightening cash liquidity and raising the price of spot and contract goods.

Such industry self-discipline behavior has avoided the damage caused by the excessive disorder competition among enterprises, which has played a certain role, but in the industry.

In the reality of serious excess, the scale and level of each factory are uneven. In the reality of "prisoner's dilemma", enterprises will consider the most conducive to their own choice, resulting in the industry alliance's long-term failure to maintain.

At the beginning of December 2014, the PTA industry even experienced a centralized shutdown and overhaul. The PTA operating rate dropped to around 50%. However, catching up with the continuous collapse of crude oil prices, the factory's self rescue and production reduction behavior did not change the trend of PTA prices.

But from the factory's original intention, we do not expect the PTA price to fall too much.

The collapse will be out of hand.

From this point of view, once the crude oil price stabilizes in the later stage, it is not ruled out that the PTA plant will still affect the spot PTA price through the planned control rate of operation, which will indirectly affect the investors' expectation and futures PTA price.

But considering the current total capacity of 43 million 480 thousand tons of PTA, corresponding to the total capacity of 44 million 390 thousand tons of polyester, the PTA industry's overall operating rate should be lower than the 10 percentage point of the polyester start-up rate, so as to maintain the balance between supply and demand.

Without considering the scale of new production in 15 years (the PTA capacity increased by 5 million 700 thousand tons in 2015, compared with the 13.18% increase in 2014, the growth rate slowed down), the reality of overcapacity in the PTA industry remains unchanged.

In the reality of the imbalance between supply and demand, competition in the industry is inevitable. In 2015, the best condition of PTA factory is to maintain relative processing profit, and it is difficult to exceed the expected increase.

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Reporters learned from the South China Customs, the South China Sea foreign trade grew steadily in 2014, up 4.3% from the same period last year (the same below), and increased 0.1 percentage points in the proportion of foreign trade in Guangdong. The foreign trade expectation of 133 billion 410 million yuan was completed at the beginning of this year.

The export growth of private enterprises increased by 26%, which is the main source of power for the growth of the South China Sea's foreign trade.

Imports from Africa increased by 45.1%, pushing Africa to become the fourth largest trading partner and second largest source of imports in the South China Sea.

Customs statistics show that in 2014, the total import and export volume of the South China Sea was 134 billion 450 million yuan, an increase of 4.3%, accounting for 1.9% of the total value of Guangdong's foreign trade, from 2% in 2013.

Among them, the South China Sea exports 74 billion 680 million yuan, an increase of 9.9%, imports 59 billion 770 million yuan, a decrease of 1.9%.

According to the South China Customs, the monthly import and export value continued to grow in 2014.

Among them, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the South China Sea foreign trade import and export value in February 2014 was the lowest point in the year 6 billion 920 million yuan, and then gradually picked up. In April -9 months, the import and export value in the 6 consecutive months exceeded 10 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth trend.

It narrowed back to 9 billion 840 million yuan in October, and exported 13 billion 280 million yuan and 14 billion 890 million yuan in November and December respectively.

Reporters learned from the South China Customs, the South China Sea foreign trade grew steadily in 2014, up 4.3% from the same period last year (the same below), and increased 0.1 percentage points in the proportion of foreign trade in Guangdong. The foreign trade expectation of 133 billion 410 million yuan was completed at the beginning of this year.

The export growth of private enterprises increased by 26%, which is the main source of power for the growth of the South China Sea's foreign trade.

Imports from Africa increased by 45.1%, pushing Africa to become the fourth largest trading partner and second largest source of imports in the South China Sea.

Customs statistics show that in 2014, the total import and export volume of the South China Sea was 134 billion 450 million yuan, an increase of 4.3%, accounting for 1.9% of the total value of Guangdong's foreign trade, from 2% in 2013.

Among them, the South China Sea exports 74 billion 680 million yuan, an increase of 9.9%, imports 59 billion 770 million yuan, a decrease of 1.9%.

According to the South China Customs, the monthly import and export value continued to grow in 2014.

Among them, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the South China Sea foreign trade import and export value in February 2014 was the lowest point in the year 6 billion 920 million yuan, and then gradually picked up. In April -9 months, the import and export value in the 6 consecutive months exceeded 10 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth trend.

It narrowed back to 9 billion 840 million yuan in October, and exported 13 billion 280 million yuan and 14 billion 890 million yuan in November and December respectively.