What Is The Gap Between PTA And Reality?

The short term industry continues to ferment.

On the cost side, crude oil prices have yet to see signs of a sharp rebound.

Demand side, from the first quarter of 2015, under the impact of the traditional Spring Festival off-season, terminal demand is bound to fall.

If the supply side is unable to control its own load, the pattern of excess supply will continue to exist.

The intensification of supply and demand tensions will probably be reflected in the late January and early February.

From PTA

In 2015, the launch date was basically concentrated in the first quarter (Sichuan Shengda plant is expected to postpone production), and the price of PTA will continue to be under pressure when the new device releases negative effects.

So the 1 quarter may be the worst in the industry.

At present, although the absolute price of PTA is attractive, the supply side has not been tightened, the demand side has been weakening and new.

It is expected that the current fundamentals still do not support market reversal.

As for the bottom space, referring to the crude oil analysis before, assuming that crude oil runs for a longer period of time between 40-60 US dollars / barrel will cause some oil producing countries to cut production, thus leading the upward shift of the cost center from top to bottom.

According to the rough calculation of the median value of 50 US dollars / barrel crude oil, naphtha price is =50*7.5+ (60~80) =435~455 US dollars / ton, PX price is about 750~800 US dollars / ton, PTA raw material cost is about 3600~3850 yuan / ton, plus 700 yuan / ton processing space, bottom area or 4300~4550 yuan / ton pportation, from time point of view, price low may happen in the first quarter, supply and demand contradiction is tight, bad profit and new capacity release bad, after a quarter, as demand rises and crude oil price repair rebound, PTA price will rise slowly from bottom.

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In 2014, the limited production and insurance price of the PTA industry had a greater impact on the spot price of PTA. The factory has a planned control of the starting rate, and it can maintain better processing profit by tightening cash liquidity and raising the price of spot and contract goods.

Such industry self-discipline behavior has avoided the damage of the industry's excessive disorder to the whole industry. It has played a certain role. But in the reality of the serious excess capacity of the industry, the scale and technical level of the factories are uneven. In the reality of "prisoner's dilemma", enterprises will consider the most advantageous choice for themselves, thus leading to the industry alliance's difficult to maintain for a long time.

At the beginning of December 2014, the PTA industry even experienced a centralized shutdown and overhaul. The PTA operating rate dropped to around 50%. However, catching up with the continuous collapse of crude oil prices, the factory's self rescue and production reduction behavior did not change the trend of PTA prices.

But from the factory's original intention, we do not expect the PTA price to fall too much, but we do not expect that the collapse of the cost side will be out of hand.

From this point of view, once the crude oil price stabilizes in the later stage, it is not ruled out that the PTA plant will still affect the spot PTA price through the planned control rate of operation, which will indirectly affect the investors' expectation and futures PTA price.

But considering the current total capacity of 43 million 480 thousand tons of PTA, corresponding to the total capacity of 44 million 390 thousand tons of polyester, the PTA industry's overall operating rate should be lower than the 10 percentage point of the polyester start-up rate, so as to maintain the balance between supply and demand.

Without considering the scale of new production in 15 years (the PTA capacity increased by 5 million 700 thousand tons in 2015, compared with the 13.18% increase in 2014, the growth rate slowed down), the reality of overcapacity in the PTA industry remains unchanged.

In the reality of the imbalance between supply and demand, competition in the industry is inevitable. In 2015, the best condition of PTA factory is to maintain relative processing profit, and it is difficult to exceed the expected increase.