Supply And Demand Pattern Of Cotton Market In China: Reduction Of Cotton Production In Xinjiang

In order to improve the supply and demand pattern of domestic cotton market and maintain the smooth operation of cotton prices, the five ministries and commissions of the Xinjiang development and Reform Commission and the finance department jointly issued the notice on conscientiously doing the work of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang recently.

As soon as the news came out, it immediately attracted the attention of the market.

Because Xinjiang's cotton output accounts for half of the total output of the country, if its production is greatly reduced, it will have an impact on the domestic cotton market.

For a long time, Xinjiang cotton has been sitting on the top in terms of planting area, total production and commodity allocation. The cotton planting reduction work led by the autonomous region government is aimed at scientifically guiding cotton farmers to gradually withdraw from the sub suitable cotton area, the risk cotton area and the low yield cotton area, while speeding up the adjustment of the cotton planting industrial structure and ensuring the increase of cotton farmers' income.

The cotton reduction area in Xinjiang autonomous region is far beyond market expectations.

According to statistics, 2015

The autonomous region issued a task decomposition index for 13 cotton planting prefectures, plans to reduce 4 million 665 thousand mu from 29 million 670 thousand acres last year, reduce the cotton planting area to 25 million mu, and reduce the scale to 15.72%.

It is estimated that cotton production in Xinjiang reached 3 million 533 thousand tons in 2015/2016, a decrease of 767 thousand tons compared with the previous year and a decrease of 17.83%.

According to the results of the January cotton production survey in China, according to the output of 3 million 533 thousand tons in Xinjiang, plus the mainland

The output is 1 million 580 thousand tons, and the total cotton output in 2015/2016 is 5 million 113 thousand tons.

From the perspective of supply, it is assumed that the state treasury stock will not be sold in 2015/2016.

When the quota does not increase, the domestic cotton market will step into the tight supply mode.

However, the improvement of the contradiction between supply and demand, which is dominated by the reduction of cotton production in Xinjiang, needs the active cooperation of the downstream consumption side.

Since the second half of last year, the operating environment of the demand enterprises in the lower reaches of the cotton market is even worse.

The long term maintenance of high and low cotton prices not only makes textile enterprises difficult to survive, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, but also leads to their loss of competitive advantage in the international arena and the shrinking of export market share.

According to statistics, the total export volume of textiles and clothing was 298 billion 430 million US dollars last year, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year, but the increase was 6.1 percentage points lower than the previous year.

Among them, the imports of cotton textiles and clothing from the United States showed a negative growth.

Affected by this, last year's main business income of the domestic textile industry was 6 trillion and 722 billion 10 million yuan, an increase of 6.8% compared to the same period last year, but the growth rate was 4.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The total profit amounted to 366 billion 270 million yuan, up 6.1% from the same period last year, but it was lower than the 9.7 percentage points of the same period last year.

At present, domestic cotton textile enterprises generally fail to start work. Due to the small number of orders, factory profits have not improved, purchasing and replenishment will not be strong, market pactions are not active, and domestic cotton spot prices continue to go down slightly.

Although Xinjiang cotton's active production reduction can reduce the expected supply of domestic cotton and ease the contradiction between supply and demand, we still need to observe the pulling effect on cotton price. After all, the downstream textile enterprise's operating environment has not been able to improve, which has restrained the recovery of demand power.

Only when both ends of supply and demand cooperate, can cotton prices become effective and steady.