Global Currency War Continues Or Causes Depreciation Of RMB

With the central bank cutting interest rates to occupy the headlines of the major financial media, the global acceleration of the opening of the currency war is even more worrying. BofA pointed out that the global currency war continued or caused. Devaluation of RMB 。

Claudio Piron and Merrill Lynch strategist Piron and Cui Wei on Wednesday (March 25th) said at a news conference that if the global currency war lasted until the second half of 2015, the US dollar would rise to 6.36 before the end of the fourth quarter.

　　 Silver and silver The US dollar is expected to rise to 6.30 before the end of the two quarter and rise to 6.34 before the end of the third quarter.

Piron said that China could stabilize inflation expectations by using a moderate depreciation of the renminbi. But China will resist the temptation to let the renminbi depreciate once and for all, resulting in capital flight and market turbulence.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch pointed out that since the third quarter of 2014, the RMB is actually effective exchange rate The rise is faster than the US dollar. The scale of foreign currency loans by Chinese entities in 2014 was around us $1 trillion and 300 billion, compared with us $170 billion in 2011.

The global exchange quotation Center shows that Beijing time 15:03, USD / RMB 6.2112/25.

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According to the sources, the above policies will be implemented as soon as possible in May this year. The investment quota of QFII (qualified overseas institutional investors) and RQFII (RMB qualified foreign institutional investors) will be changed from the former approval system to the filing system. The scope of investment can also be extended to large scale negotiable certificates of deposit (CD), repo trading, interest rate swap and other derivatives trading. The fastest system will be released in May.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Central Bank of China, said last week that he would strive to achieve convertibility of capital account this year, including the more facilitation of individual investors inside and outside the country. At present, foreign residents invest in China mainly through QFII, which is not convenient and flexible.

In the 2013 annual report of the people's Bank of China, the people's Bank of China has said that it will further expand the qualification of qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) and qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) and increase investment quotas. "When conditions are ripe, the qualification and quota approval will be disqualified, and the relevant investment facilities will be extended to all legitimate institutions both inside and outside the country."

Reuters quoted another source as saying: "before RQFII, it is a fixed income product that can be invested in the interbank bond market. It will be further liberalized. It will not exclude repurchase, swaps, interbank deposit certificates and non-public directional debt financing instruments (PPN). The relevant investment will also be extended to all legitimate institutions both inside and outside the country."

At the end of 2011, the Central Bank of China and the State Administration of foreign exchange approved the launch of the RQFII pilot. In March 2012, 18 RQFII companies such as Shenyang Wanguo (Hongkong) were allowed to enter the interbank bond market, and in 2013, QFII was allowed to enter the interbank market. In 2013, three types of overseas institutions (offshore central banks, Hong Kong and Macao clearing banks and overseas participating banks) also allowed investment in interbank bond markets. Subsequently, the application criteria for RQFII qualifications had been relaxed to many financial institutions with countries and regions with offshore RMB clearing centers.

According to Reuters, as of February 27th, the total number of approved QFII institutions was 265, with a total approved amount of $69 billion 723 million, and the RQFII 103 family had been approved, with a total quota of 311 billion 500 million yuan. Among them, 14 QFII and more than 60 RQFII have become members of the interbank currency market. They can entrust commercial banks to carry out transactions and settlement in the inter-bank bond market.