Policy Easing Plays A Major Role In Stabilizing Economic Growth.

The forecast and analysis of China's macroeconomic situation in the first quarter of 2015 showed that, first, the growth rate of investment demand continued to decline, and it was difficult to recover steadily in the short term unless the real estate investment growth picked up significantly. Second, consumer demand continued to maintain a slight downward trend, which was lingering in the historical track area since 2010 and short recovery in the short term. Third, the growth rate of imports rose slightly faster than expected, but the growth rate of imports will continue to fall, making the trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015 expected to continue to expand. According to the survey, China's economic growth basically met market expectations in the first quarter of 2015.

In the first quarter of 2015, the economic data will be released soon. This newspaper released "our quarterly report on the economic situation of the chief economist". The chief economist and macroeconomic research expert of 12 banks and brokerages and other domestic and foreign financial institutions involved in the survey will continue to maintain the judgement of the "cold" of China's macroeconomic climate, and forecast and analyze the changes of GDP, price level, liquidity and macro policy in the first quarter of 2015. Although the economic growth target was lowered to 7% in 2015, it is not easy to achieve this goal in view of the fact that the current macroeconomic situation is not optimistic. Most experts expect that the state will continue to intensify the relaxation of macroeconomic policies. "Ensuring growth" is still an important task of macroeconomic management in 2015.

According to the survey results, in the first quarter of 2015, GDP was expected to grow by 7.1% over the same period last year, which was significantly lower than that of the previous quarter's GDP growth of 7.3%. It is expected that CPI grew by 1.27% over the same period last year, and the low position showed that deflation pressure was not small. M2 was expected to grow 12.02% over the same period last year. Overall, the macroeconomic situation in the first quarter of 2015 was not optimistic. In view of the weak economic growth in the future, how to further relax the macroeconomic policy will be one of the important points to observe the changes of China's economic situation in 2015.

Consistent with the judgement of the domestic macroeconomic situation in the previous quarter, the 12 institutions involved in the survey judged the consistency of China's macroeconomic situation in the first quarter of 2015 as "cold". At present, the weak economic boom in China is basically in line with market expectations. Although GDP grew by 7.4% year-on-year in 2014, the growth of GDP in the first quarter to the fourth quarter was 7.4%, 7.5%, 7.3% and 7.3% respectively, indicating that economic growth is still in a downward trend. As the economic policy is mainly focused on expanding investment demand, the pull up effect of policy stimulus is fading faster, resulting in the current economic growth momentum still insufficient. Although the 7% is an economic growth that is in line with the inherent economic laws of the "new normal", but in view of the reform and transformation, China's economy still needs to maintain more than 7% growth rate. Although the current export growth is expected to rebound significantly, the stabilization of investment demand is more difficult and the pressure of consumer demand is not too heavy. In order to achieve the economic growth target of 7% in 2015, we need to take a more proactive macroeconomic policy, promote investment demand stabilization, stabilize consumer demand growth, and continue to promote the growth of import and export demand, so as to ensure steady and rapid growth of the macro-economy this year.

According to the survey results of this quarter's economic situation, 12 of the agencies surveyed believe that the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 will fall. Among them, the average forecast value for the first quarter GDP growth is 7.1%, the maximum predicted value is 7.3%, and the predicted minimum value is 6.8%. The forecast shows that the growth rate of GDP in the first quarter was significantly slower than that in the fourth quarter of 2014, when the GDP grew by 7.3%.

GDP growth has changed since 2012. The first quarter, the two quarter, the three quarter and the fourth quarter of 2012 increased by 8.1%, 7.6%, 7.4% and 7.9% respectively, and the growth rate of GDP was 1.5%, 2%, 2.1% and 2% respectively. The first quarter, the two quarter, the quarter and the quarter of the first quarter were the same growth rates of GDP, GDP, and GDP respectively. The growth rate of GDP in the first quarter, the second quarter, the second quarter, the quarter and the quarter were up respectively. Observation In addition, through institutional forecasts, the average growth of GDP in the second quarter of 2015 is 7.12%, and the second quarter economic growth is expected to stabilize. In the survey of whether or not we can achieve 7% of the annual economic growth target this year, 6 agencies believe that this goal will be exceeded. 2 agencies believe that the target of economic growth is close to 7%, and 4 agencies believe that they will be lower than the annual economic growth target. Among them, the average annual economic growth target for 2015 is 7.02%, the maximum predicted value is 7.2%, and the prediction minimum value is 6.8%. It can be seen that economic growth in 2015 will probably be close to the expected target, but we still need to intensify the relaxation of macroeconomic policies so as to enhance the driving force of economic growth.

According to the survey results of this quarter's economic situation, all the 12 agencies involved in the prediction of fixed asset investment growth in the first quarter of 2015 agreed that they would continue to decline. Among them, the average forecast of fixed asset investment growth in the first quarter of 2015 was 13.4%, the maximum predicted value was 15.5%, and the lowest predicted value was 12.7%.

Compared with 1-12 months in 2012, 1-12 months in 2013 and 1-12 months in 2014, the fixed assets investment increased by 20.6%, 19.6%, 17.3% and 15.7% respectively. Asset investment The growth rate is 13. 4%, indicating that the downward trend of domestic fixed asset investment will continue.

From the present point of view, the growth rate of real estate investment continues to decline, which is one of the main reasons that affect the slow growth of fixed assets investment. In the current situation of infrastructure investment and so on, it is difficult to replace real estate investment. It is expected that the state will further relax the fiscal policy and monetary policy to boost the prosperity of the real estate market. It is predicted that investment demand in the second quarter of 2015 will probably rebound and the investment demand will steadily recover after the third quarter of 2015. Investment The rebound in demand promotes the engine of economic growth in 2015.

According to the survey results of this quarter's economic situation, compared with the previous quarter's data, in the first quarter of 2015, the total number of consumer goods retail sales growth forecasts in the first quarter of the year, except the 1 organizations that will remain unchanged, the remaining 11 agencies all believe that the growth rate of consumer demand will decline slightly. Among them, the average forecast value of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter of 2015 was 11.3%, the maximum predicted value was 12%, and the lowest predicted value was 10.8%. This forecast mean that the growth trend of consumer demand remains downward adjustment trend.

From China in recent years consumer demand The trend of change shows that in May 2010 and November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 18.7% year-on-year, and gradually dropped. The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2012, 2013 and 2014 increased by 14.3%, 13.1% and 12% respectively, compared with the 10.7% increase in the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2015 1-2. The growth of consumer demand in the short term is difficult to recover steadily, but the impact on economic growth is relatively stable.

The results of this quarterly economic survey show that the US economy is showing signs of warming, and international factors are conducive to China's export trade growth. However, domestic economic growth is still weak, and domestic factors are still not conducive to China's import trade growth. Based on the current economic situation at home and abroad, which is generally conducive to the growth of China's import and export trade, the new trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015 will continue to pick up compared with the previous quarter.

According to the survey results of the quarterly economic situation, (1) the average forecast for export growth is 13.1%, which is significantly improved compared with the export growth rate in the first few quarters. Among them, the maximum predicted value is 21.3%, and the predicted minimum value is 3.5%. (2) the mean value of the increase in imports is -17.0%, of which the maximum decrease is -20.0%, and the minimum decrease is -12.0%. Of course, the participation of the participating agencies in the first quarter of 2015 is still a big difference in judging the growth rate of imports and exports.

In view of the scale of the trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015, the survey results showed that the average trade surplus in the first quarter of 2015 was 700 billion yuan, and the trade balance continued to show a relatively rapid growth.