The Stock Market Continued To Stagnate And The Market Environment Of The Securities Industry Was Remarkable.

Margin margin exceeded 1 trillion and 600 billion, substantially raised the margin financing industry assumption, based on the adjustment of industry assumptions, UBS Securities unified up the company's 2015-17 year profit forecast. Continue to remain optimistic about the industry, optimistic about CITIC A, Haitong A and Huatai Securities.

Since 2015 Incremental funding Continuing to enter the market, the average daily turnover has become a new normal. The average daily turnover in the 1 quarter reached 761 billion 400 million yuan, much exceeding UBS and market expectations. Considering that the turnover rate is still below the 2007 and 2014 high points, UBS expects more active market spanactions to continue. The average daily turnover of industries has been substantially raised. Assuming that the average daily turnover in the 2015-17 years will be raised to 750 billion yuan /7797 billion yuan /8051 billion yuan, the increase will be 85%/75%/70%.

Since 2015, the brokerage sector has been stagflated. market environment and Listed broker 1-3 month financial data, UBS Securities expects 2015 listed brokerage net profit year-on-year growth rate is generally above 70%, while the 1 quarter net profit of listed brokerages may exceed market expectations. Continue to remain optimistic about the industry and continue to look at CITIC A, Haitong A and Huatai Securities with better fundamentals and performance support.

The industry assumption of average daily turnover and margin margin has been substantially raised, and UBS Securities has uniformly raised the company's earnings forecasts. Adjusted net profit forecasts are much higher than market consensus expectations. Considering that the market sentiment is high and the incremental capital continues to flow into the market, securities companies are directly benefiting from the great development of the capital market. UBS believes that the expected market consensus is expected to increase in the 2015-2017 years.

In 2015 1-2, as the regulators strengthened, the margin trading growth slowed slightly, but in March it benefited from the high market sentiment and the margin trading business accelerated again. By the beginning of April 2015, the two financial balance had exceeded 160 million yuan, exceeding UBS and market expectations. Taking into account the current market is very active, investors demand for financing and regulatory approval of the overall norms of securities financing business, UBS Securities expects the future margin trading will remain relatively fast growth. Substantially raising the margin assumption, it is estimated that the two fiscal balance will reach 2.5/3.0/3.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2015-2017, with an increase of 67%/69%/81%.

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Traditional companies, unless they have special genes, are not very successful in their own business platform. They are all subsidized traffic at the very beginning. After importing traffic, they still need to rely on various fees to make profits, so most businesses will find a large platform to settle in.

According to the Quarterly Bulletin released by Alibaba last December 31st, Cai Chongxin, vice chairman of the group, said that the number of active buyers of Ali increased by 27 million to 334 million. The company's mobile terminal has 265 million monthly active users, an increase of 48 million compared with the previous quarter. Although Alibaba's businesses have complained all the time, the adhesive force is still strong, which is the result of the adsorption capacity of the platform.

The Internet plus era is a grass-roots era, but also a professional era, that is, large customers are adjusting the balance of operation, and the large amount of money burned to merchants may not get better results.

Ali's profit structure is changing. Quarterly Bulletin disclosure decreased by pay per click (CPC), this is because of adjusting the keyword auction ranking method, increasing the relevance of P4P, adding more personalized search, but directly reducing CPC. In the fourth quarter of last year, advertising revenue grew by only 20%, while Commission revenue accounted for 37% of the total revenue of the retail platform.

The rise of mobile terminal volume is a very important signal for the platform to customers, which means the decrease of advertising level and the increase of commission income. In analyzing quarterly reports, Da Mo pointed out that the accelerated growth of C2C turnover (especially in mobile terminals) may bring more "free" C2C turnover to merchants, while B2C turnover and commission growth will slow down.

The rising proportion of B2C brings rise to platform Commission revenue. For example, if B2C changes moderately, the platform needs to sell more virtual products and high margin products. If C2C turnover increases, it will not necessarily be beneficial to the platform. For ordinary customers, there are many choices in the era of mobile terminals. Both micro businesses, acquaintance circles, credit sales and so on are excellent ways to cut in. It is not necessarily the best way to increase the ranking of traditional advertising inputs. The electricity supplier is a tool, and it is also faced with various costs. Otherwise, there will not be more and more complaints since 2013.

The hollowing of traditional commercial platforms and the high cost of rent will force businesses to flee. If the electronic platform gets too high a monopoly premium, it will still be hollow.

In February 4th, the article on Taobao had caused a great stir. Reporters in the Alibaba training class was informed that at present, there are about 6000000 sellers in Taobao fairs, with less than 300 thousand real money making, accounting for only 5%. Tmall mall store, more than 60 thousand sellers, do not lose at least 10%. You can probably hear too much about the myth of Taobao and Tmall and tell you how much opportunity and wealth it has to make Taobao and Tmall. However, they did not tell you that many people died on the way to Taobao and Tmall.

Subdivision is also not optimistic. According to the Prospect Research Institute reported on 2013, domestic industry experts revealed that at present, Taobao has made 28 B2B cosmetics and B2C businesses in China, and 27 000 cosmetic shops have become cannon fodder. Online shopping businesses attract customers, which is lower than the maximum discount of thirty percent off of cosmetics stores, resulting in mixed product quality.

The same is true in the steel industry. It is reported that since 2013, over 200 enterprises have poured into the field of iron and steel business. At present, the vast majority of platforms are still burning a lot of money. Almost no platform has explored the real profit model.

E-commerce instead of traditional business is due to the obvious defects of traditional business, but flatting does not mean that e-commerce can eliminate costs. The cost of traditional store rentals and manpower will disappear, and the cost of new brush advertising will replace the traditional cost. The most advanced platform of e-commerce platform will make traditional profits, so the traditional cost will also be changed. We recognize the trend of Internet marketing. Once the trend is formed, the best user experience and the establishment of a complete industry and credit chain are the key to success.