Interpretation Of The Impact Of Imported Cotton Yarn Market

Global and China's supply and demand pattern determines that cotton prices are unlikely to have a trend of rising opportunities. A serious supply exceeding demand is more conducive to selling at high prices; state reserve stocks are an important deterrent force, and curb the trend of enthusiasm; national storage cotton throwing and storing prices will open up domestic downward space; India cotton falls below the critical point in order to substantially open down domestic cotton prices; the US cotton CCC loan policy defines the maximum price reduction space; from the perspective of yarn imports, the domestic cotton price lower limit is around 12000 yuan / ton (at the bottom of static state, India throws stores and foreign cotton drops sharply, and it needs to dynamically adjust the bottom of the domestic cotton price bottom according to the cotton price.)

China is a net importer of cotton yarn. In 2013/14, China accumulated 1 million 550 thousand tons of net imported cotton yarn and nearly 1 million 700 thousand tons of imported cotton. Pakistan, India and Vietnam were the main source countries of China's imports of cotton yarn, the three accounted for about 85% of China's cotton yarn imports, 3.5% of Pakistan cotton yarn and India cotton yarn imports were imported, and Vietnam's cotton yarn imports were subject to zero tariff, and the impact of Southeast Asian cotton yarn on the domestic textile industry will continue to exist.

Hypothetical import India yarn And Vietnamese yarn as imported cotton, taking into account the cost of raw materials procurement in India and Vietnam. Processing cost Then how much is the price of India yarn and Vietnamese yarn converted into domestic cotton?

(1) the import of India cotton yarn to China requires freight, 3.5% customs duties and 17% value-added tax, and the CIF price of these 20150731 contracts will be 12400 yuan / ton. (Note: MCX price is dynamic price, so the CIF price calculated according to this kind of payment is also dynamic price).

(2) Vietnam's textile raw materials are purchased from the United States (for example, the intermediate cost may be lower from India). The imported cotton is transported to Vietnam from the west coast of the United States, and then transported to the Chinese port after spinning. Therefore, two freight rates are converted, and at the same time, Vietnam belongs to the east alliance country, and the export of cotton yarn to China is subject to zero tariff, but 17% value-added tax is still needed.

　　 Vietnam? The import of cotton yarn to China requires two freight charges and 17% value-added tax, which is converted to CIF at the price of 11900-12560 yuan / ton in accordance with the ICE contract in July.

Theoretically, when the domestic price is lower than the above price, India yarn and Vietnamese yarn are difficult to enter the domestic market. Therefore, we take the relative price of the above calculation as the relative low point of domestic cotton price (Note: the above calculation is static calculation, if the price of cotton is changed, the price should be adjusted dynamically).

The introduction of the target price has a positive effect on stabilizing the cotton planting area in Xinjiang. However, the cotton planting area in the mainland is not expected to be affected by the issue of cotton planting subsidy in the mainland. At the same time, the acquisition of enterprises in Xinjiang will have a deeper understanding of the "market determined price". The seed cotton will be priced from the market and the probability of buying seed cotton will be less.