Cotton Textile Industry Chain Is Expected To Restore Industry Difficulties This Year Is Expected To Break Through

The high cost dilemma of cotton textile enterprises is expected to start reversing in 2015.

According to the news from the front of today's reporter, according to Haitong Securities (600837) report, the core factor affecting the fluctuation of cotton prices is 2014: policy, and supply and demand in 2015.

The high cost dilemma of enterprises is expected to start reversing in 2015.

Textile and garment industry is expected to start to a certain extent this year.

Taking zhengmian 1509 as an example, futures prices fell from 13405 yuan / ton to 13005 yuan / ton at the beginning of April, which has been slightly concussion and continued to rise to 13095 yuan / ton at the end of February.

Haitong Securities expects cotton prices to go up slightly in the two quarter, mainly based on the following two aspects: (1) as of mid April, spring sowing in the the Yellow River River Basin and Xinjiang has been carried out by about 10% and 30%. According to the latest cotton survey intention report, the cotton planting area in the mainland is expected to decline by more than 30%, and the area of Xinjiang fine wool cotton sown is expected to decrease by 15%-20%. Under the assumption of constant yield per mu, the cotton output in the new year will decrease significantly; (2) the area and output will decrease significantly.

Will be more scarce, from the perspective of supply and demand to push up prices, in addition, it will stimulate the psychology of market speculation, that is, the role of funds.

The low inventory status of the circulation link: the low price of inventory and the demand for replenishment are in existence.

Since 2014, we are optimistic.

The recovery in 2015.

In April 2014, the cotton policy was changed from storage to storage and storage to direct subsidy. The links in the industrial chain were consistent. The cotton price would be obviously downward. Careful order and digestion of inventory were basically the same consensus. With the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed to a reasonable range (1500-2000 yuan / ton), the demand for replenishment of cotton textile industry is expected to drive the growth of order volume and gross margin, thus making good performance of leading cotton textile enterprises.

Since 2015, Haitong Securities has recommended

Chain logic has been strengthened.

Haitong Securities pays close attention to the cotton planting area at the end of April and the progress of the signing of the TPP agreement in Vietnam in September (the p Pacific (601099) partnership agreement). If the main manufacturing processes such as spinning, weaving and printing are carried out in member countries, export tariff relief and preferential treatment can be enjoyed. The above two factors correspond to the increase in gross margin and the increase in orders.

In the medium term, the high cost predicament of cotton textile enterprises since 2010 is expected to begin to reverse in 2015.

Since 2010, cotton textile enterprises are facing a rising high cost dilemma. With the beginning of natural growth of human cost, environmental protection costs and the decline of main raw materials and cotton prices, cotton textile enterprises are expected to reverse the difficulties in 2015 and enhance their international competitiveness.

And experienced early industry integration, small scale, relatively weak strength of enterprises to withdraw from market competition, industry concentration is expected to enhance overall, orders and other resources to the leading enterprises gathered, is expected to significantly improve the market share of leading textile enterprises.

The main uncertainties are: the market demand is not up to expectations, the risk of policy change.