Report On Textile And Garment Export Data In The First Half Of The Year And Analysis Of Its International Influence Factors

And then to the mid year node, compared with previous years, this year's foreign trade situation is extremely grim.

The consumption patterns of major economies are changing quietly, and the fluctuations of several currencies fluctuating are the main factors affecting export data.

The nerves of foreign trade enterprises.

Starting from this stage, the international trade edition will take stock of import and export in the first half of the year from 3 different perspectives: "watching the general trend", "reading policy" and "asking enterprises".

Despite the beginning of last year, economists and experts have repeatedly stressed that China's economy, including the export situation, will enter a new normal with low growth rate and steady growth, but in the first quarter of the year, China's textile and clothing industry has entered the WTO.

After the trade data came out, people still felt unexpected and even panic.

In the first month of this year, China's textiles

Exports showed a sharp decline of 10.8% over the same period, exceeding the average decline of 3.3% of the total foreign trade.

Then, in February, the data went up sharply, but in the month of comparison, the export trade of that month still dropped by 15%.

In March, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 12 billion 560 million US dollars, the lowest in the past 5 years, down 32.6% from the same period last year.

Experts comforting the data for one or two months do not indicate anything. Especially in January and March, before and after the Spring Festival, unstable situations occur frequently. Such fluctuations can not represent normality.

People in the skeptical attitude, ushered in the April and May data.

Regrettably, like the current stock market, China's textile and clothing exports are still on the downward track.

If careful analysis, such a change is reasonable. China, as a major exporter of textiles and clothing, will continue to fluctuate with the world economy.

Looking at the world, the world structure is evolving. The deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States and Europe has broken the balance of big economies. Greece's debt crisis has once dragged down the pace of economic recovery in Europe, and the continuous growth of costs and rapid economic development have made China unable to play the role of a single world processing plant, but shouldering greater responsibilities.

Under such circumstances, Chinese businessmen have been constantly asking why and how to do it, and finally, they have been accustomed to the fact that they are not going up or down. They are actively seeking ways to make up for their losses. Their mentality has changed dramatically with the fluctuation of export trade.

Subsequently, the news of the decline in export trade in May was narrower than before, and there seemed to be some hope for the second half of the year.

Export data is red and green.

In January, exports of textiles and clothing showed a sharp decline of 10.8% over the same period, exceeding the average decline of 3.3% of foreign trade.

Among them, textile exports 9 billion 720 million US dollars, down 7.8%, clothing exports 15 billion 820 million US dollars, down 12.5%, clothing exports fell more than textiles.

In February, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was 23 billion 110 million US dollars, an increase of 82.4%, of which exports were US $21 billion 680 million, an increase of 99.3%.

In 1~2 months, the total trade volume of textiles and clothing increased by US $50 billion 820 million, an increase of 17%, of which exports were US $47 billion 220 million, an increase of 19.3%.

In February, the export of textile and clothing increased by nearly twice as much as that of January.

In March, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was 15 billion 10 million US dollars, down 28.3% from the same period last year, of which exports were US $12 billion 560 million, down 32.6%.

In 1~3 months, the total trade volume of textiles and clothing increased by US $65 billion 820 million, an increase of 2.3%, of which exports were US $59 billion 780 million, an increase of 2.8%.

Exports in March were the lowest in the past 5 years.

At the same time, the proportion of textile and clothing exports to the total value of goods trade in the country dropped to below 10% for the first time, to 8.7%.

In April, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was 22 billion 130 million US dollars, down 15.2% from the same period last year, of which exports were US $19 billion 880 million, down 16.3%.

In 1~4 months, the total volume of textile and apparel trade was 87 billion 950 million US dollars, down 2.8%, of which exports were US $79 billion 660 million, down 2.7%.

The decline in April was narrower than in March, but still reached two digits, making the cumulative export growth of 2.7% negative in the first 4 months.

In addition, in the first month of the month, both imports and exports fell in the same month.

In May, China's textile and clothing trade volume was 25 billion 440 million US dollars, down 6.4% compared with the same period last year, of which exports were US $23 billion 390 million, down 6.3% compared with the same period last year, and the decline continued to narrow to 10% within April.

In 1~5 months, the total volume of textile and apparel trade in China was 113 billion 390 million US dollars, down 3.6% from the same period last year, of which exports were US $103 billion 50 million, down 3.6%.

The slowdown in export trade in May was largely due to the improvement in the US market.

The world economy has changed considerably.

U.S.A

From the first half of the year, the consumer market in the United States shows a dumbbell style, and the industry generally favors its luxury market and low-end consumer domain, and has reservations about the middle end market.

Credit Suisse statistics show that the United States will remain the richest country in the world, and the aggregate wealth of the country will exceed 114 trillion dollars by 2019.

The country is strong.

Consumption power has attracted the attention of the global luxury industry.

Norsa, chief executive officer of Italy luxury brand Ferragamo, said that since 2014, the United States has been at the top of the brand investment plan.

Similarly,

The group also said that sales in recent 8% years in the United States, sales in the first quarter of this year increased by a year from the same period last year.

On the other hand, many brands in the United States are bankrupt due to various operating pressures.

For example, JonesNewYork, a veteran American fashion woman, announced the closure of 127 retail stores, and the WetSeal of teenage women's wear and accessories brand went bankrupt.

In addition, Messi store, the most popular shop in the middle class, announced the establishment of discount shop Macy 'sBackstage early this year.

The group said that providing consumers with cheaper and more reasonable products is a better direction for us department stores.

In fact, the US retailer who adjusted its business is not only one of Messi's department stores, but also its rival Nodes Tron and SaksInc. have launched discount stores.

TheNPDGroupInc., a US research firm, said that in February 2014 to February 2015, sales in the US market with low price retailers increased by 2.5% and sales amounted to $23 billion 200 million.

Europe

In the first half of this year, the European market did not improve significantly compared with that of last year, which continued to be weak and the overall economic recovery was slow. This directly led to a decline in European Importers' orders.

At the same time, the European economic downturn, high unemployment rate and other factors led to the industry's lack of confidence in the market.

Take the UK as an example. According to PWC's accounting firm, the number of shops closed in high street last year was 5839, and the number of new outlets was 4852.

Due to the poor sales performance of most shops, the speed of opening shop is not up to speed.

Despite reports that the country's consumer confidence has recovered, the increase in net sales reflects a slight rebound in the economy and a slight recovery in consumer confidence, which has not relieved the sluggish retail situation.

But it is worth noting that the online shopping strength of the UK has been increasing due to consumers' preference for low price.

The performance of other countries is no better than that of the United Kingdom. According to data released by the European Central Statistical Bureau of Holland, the turnover of clothing and textile stores in the first quarter of this year decreased by 2.2% and 8.8% respectively.

Africa

This year, AGOA's African Growth and Opportunity Act has once again become the focus of attention of the textile and garment industry.

In mid April, several American trade related bills, such as the AGOA African Growth and Opportunity Act, were sent to the house of Representatives and the Senate. This news has helped many American clothing, shoes and hats and other African retailers and exporters to take the lead, because the most beneficial thing for AGOA is the textile and garment industry. Finally, they pushed forward the trade agenda.

Subsequently, the US House of Representatives voted to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by a vote of 397 votes to 32.

The bill will be postponed for 10 years to the end of 2025, with a retrospective extension of the generalized preferential tariff system (GSP) and the Haiti trade preferences scheme.

A survey conducted by consulting firm McKinsey on clothing industry shows that the largest clothing retailers in the world are very interested in purchasing from sub Saharan Africa.

According to the survey, 40% of buyers believe that in the next 5 years, sub Saharan Africa will play an increasingly important role in the apparel industry, which is only 24% in 2013.

Not only European and American buyers, but also China's textile industry is concerned about this hot spot.

At the beginning of this year, Yifu Lin, a famous economist, pointed out that the most suitable place for the pfer of labor-intensive industries should be Africa.

In April, a Chinese textile delegation went to Ethiopia for inspection. At that time, some entrepreneurs said they would consider pferring the industry to this point.

Fluctuations in exchange rate fluctuate

Euro

Exchange rate fluctuation is an important factor affecting import and export trade in the first half of this year.

In the late January, the euro fell below the 7 mark against the RMB exchange rate. After a slight recovery, however, the euro has been hovering around 7.

As of press release, 1 euros to 6.8698 yuan.

In fact, since May last year, the euro has depreciated all along, and has fallen by nearly 20%.

This has led to a continuous increase in exports of textiles and clothing to Europe.

Rouble

From the end of last year, the Russian economy has continued to slack.

As of April, the sharp decline in the ruble exchange rate triggered a series of chain reactions, especially on China's clothing export trade has a great impact.

As the Chinese and Russian trade is mainly settled in US dollars and the rubles are depreciating sharply, even if Chinese suppliers or sellers do not raise the US dollar price, Russian buyers or buyers still need to take out more roubles to buy the same goods.

In the first half of the year, both the large garment enterprises and individual traders exporting to Russia were full of worries about the trade prospect.

Take the fur industry as an example, orders fell sharply. In the 4~5 months of this year, the Russian businessmen who came to Beijing to buy on ya Po Road at least reduced 2/3.

However, in April, the rouble grew strongly, and the US dollar against ruble fell for the first time in December 2014 to 1 US dollars to 51 roubles.

As we all have speculated, is Russia's most difficult time now? After May, the ruble exchange rate has declined.

As of press release, $1 was exchanged for 57.3950 roubles.

Yen

In May 27th, the 100 yen exchange rate fell below 5 for the first time.

In June 2nd, the middle price of the exchange rate was 100 yen, or about 4.9196 yuan, the lowest level since August 31, 1994.

Not only for the renminbi, but also for other currencies in the world.

In June 2nd, the US dollar broke 125 against the yen, and the yen against the dollar hit a new low since 2002.

However, unlike the above countries, the Japanese government is willing to let the yen depreciate, hoping to deal with deflation and drive export growth to boost economic development.

According to media reports, Japanese insiders said that the depreciation of the Japanese yen would prompt more enterprises to move their production base back to Japan, and the increase in localization production will help to promote local economic development in China.

Indeed, in the field of textiles and clothing, the depreciation of the yen has caused a great impact on the export trade of China and Korea.

In addition, due to the depreciation of the yen, the tourism industry in South Korea has been severely hit, and it has a great impact on the whole economy in the first half of the year.