Industry Big Data: How Much Do Luxury Brands Rely On China?

Top of the list is the Swiss watch group Swatch, which owns Swatch, Baoji, Bobo, OMEGA, Longines and so on. 20% of its revenue comes from the mainland market, compared with 10% in 2009. Secondly, the brands that depend most on the mainland market are Ferragamo, Gucci and Butberry - 14% of the 3 results are contributed by the market consumers.

However, none of this has been counted as China's "sweeping army" in Shanghai.

As the euro and yen have been declining for a long time, Chinese consumers are pushing to Europe and Japan to buy the "cost-effective" tourism. Luxury goods 。 data It shows that high-end watches and jewellery group Swatch and Li Feng have made a huge contribution to Chinese buyers worldwide, which has contributed more than 40% of revenue to two Swiss groups. Especially for Richemont, its revenue in the Chinese market accounts for only 8% of its total, and the consumption of Chinese tourists overseas suddenly soared to 41%.

Luxury carrier LVMH and Kering respective head signs LV and Gucci are all Chinese tourists' purchase targets. LV mainland market revenue accounted for 10%, the share of global Chinese consumers is 26%Gucci, the mainland market revenue accounted for 14%, the share of global Chinese consumers is 35%.

The top three in China's global consumer dependence list is Italy luxury group Salvatore Ferragamo. In March, its chief executive, Michele Norsa, said in an interview with the media that the sales performance of the group in February was considerable, thanks to the consumption of Chinese tourists during the Spring Festival. "Sales of Italy headquarters stores have increased significantly in the past 10 days".

China's luxury goods consumers benefit from luxury goods. HSBC's global shopper report released in February shows that Chinese consumers spend 1/3 of the world's total spending on luxury goods, and 2/3 of them spend overseas.

However, the good times did not last long. In August 11th and 12, two days in a row, the value of the RMB depreciated by 3%, and the share prices of Salvatore Ferragamo, LVMH, Richemont, Swatch, Burberry and so on fell 5%.

Compared with the market reaction, Deutsche Bank's analysis is optimistic. The report thinks that even if the RMB exchange rate is 5% against the US dollar, brand Without any defensive measures, the potential loss of company profits will average around 4%, and it will not be as serious as previously expected. The impact of Swatch may be even more severe, reaching 7%.

Luca Solca, a luxury goods analyst at Paris bank, France, agrees: "how much will the Chinese tourists and purchasing be affected? 2% no matter what, at least 10% of the degree will hit and affect China's luxury consumption.

Regardless of the extent of the depreciation, the recent weakness in the Chinese market has made the luxury brands "chill". At the end of the month, LVMH7 announced its second quarter earnings report. Sales in mainland China and Hong Kong and Macao fell by nearly 10% compared with the same period last year. Burberry and Prada have failed to meet analysts' expectations in the past 3 months. Hongkong has once again become the target of public criticism.

After the amazing growth of wrist watch industry from 2000 to 2014, the bubble wall became thinner and thinner. Switzerland watches have just passed a very difficult July, the export volume of watches and clocks decreased by 9.3% compared with the same period last year, and China's biggest decline (39.6%) was mainly due to the pressure of economic slowdown and the instability of stock market.

After releasing this risk list, Deutsche Bank also explained the positive factors in the Chinese market, for example, the expanding middle class population will continue to promote luxury goods in the long run. market development 。 The data released by Bain in May this year show that the number of high net worth individuals who can invest more than RMB 10 million yuan in mainland China in 2014 has exceeded 1 million.

Another reassurance of luxury brands is the recent adjustment of tariffs in China. Since June 1st, China has reduced its share. clothing The import tariff rate of daily consumer goods such as footwear, skin care products, diapers and so on, has fallen by an average of more than 50%. Mario Boselli, the honorary chairman of Italy Fashion Association, said in an interview with interface news: "the impact of RMB depreciation will not be great. On the contrary, three months after tariff reduction, the consumption of Chinese luxury goods on the mainland went up at once."

Although there will be no retreat plan for luxury brands in the short term, it is very realistic that they have turned their attention to the more secure and economically upland American, South American countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, which have been neglected in geography.