Chemical Fiber 13Th Five-Year New Deal Will Focus On High-Performance Fiber.

The reporter recently learned from the China chemical fiber industry association that by the Ministry of industry and commerce, the association is formulating the "13th Five-Year development plan" of the chemical fiber industry (short for "planning").

According to the established work plan, before the end of this month, the association will conduct consultation, consultation, argumentation, revision, improvement and finalization of the planning report.

According to the association, during the "12th Five-Year" period, China's chemical fiber industry continued to develop rapidly, and its comprehensive competitiveness increased significantly. In 2014, chemical fiber production was 43 million 897 thousand tons, accounting for nearly 70% of the world's total. Chemical fiber became the main raw material of China's textile industry, accounting for 80.4% of the textile fiber processing volume.

Chemical fiber and downstream processing industry has also become the most important export earning industry in China's textile industry.

It is noteworthy that the structural overcapacity caused by extensive development, the gap between some high-tech fibers and developed countries, the low added value of products and the lack of independent innovation brands are also evident in the development of China's chemical fiber industry.

According to the association, by the end of 13th Five-Year, China's chemical fiber production will reach 55 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6%, which will be much lower than the average annual growth rate of 9.2% in 12th Five-Year.

This means that the output of chemical fibre will only increase by 8 million tons in 13th Five-Year, and the capacity will increase by only 6 million tons.

Therefore, controlling the new capacity and increasing the operating rate will be one of the important goals of 13th Five-Year.

The Association believes that the development of the chemical fiber industry has been unable to continue to rely on the volume of growth in the past, but to carry out pformation and upgrading, to R & D, design, brand, marketing, services and other aspects of the extension, production mode to flexible, intelligent, digital, refined, green production pformation.

According to the plan, it is an important goal to accelerate the research and breakthroughs in industrialization of high-performance fibers during the "13th Five-Year" period.

High performance fiber is a kind of fiber material with high tensile strength, compression strength, friction resistance, high destructive resistance and low specific gravity (g/m3). It is a kind of special fiber that has developed rapidly in the field of fiber polymer materials in recent years.

The development of high performance fibers is a manifestation of the comprehensive strength of a country and an important material foundation for building a modern power.

High performance fiber composites are important raw materials for the development of national defense industry, aerospace, new energy and high technology industries, and also in building, communication, machinery, environmental protection and ocean development.

It is widely used in the field of national economy.

In the ten major areas identified in "made in China 2025", seven fields are closely related to high-performance fibers.

The association said that in 13th Five-Year, the differential rate of products will be increased to 65%, the effective capacity of high-performance fibers will reach 260 thousand tons, and the proportion of new products in the whole industry will increase from the current 20% to more than 28%.

The replacement rate of bio based materials will be increased to 2%.

(Shanghai Securities Daily)

Jilin chemical fiber (000420): bamboo fiber is the most profitable product with high viscose price.

Due to the reduction of cotton production, we expect cotton and viscose will remain at a relatively high price level for quite some time.

Cotton lint is insufficient, and this year is even worse. So it is imperative to develop wood pulp, bamboo pulp and other cotton pulp instead of products.

Jilin chemical fiber is the largest supplier of bamboo fiber in China, with a market share of over 90%. The company intends to expand its capacity to maintain its leading position in the industry.

Bamboo fiber cost is stable, price is glued to viscose staple fiber, bamboo fiber benefits most when the viscose price is high.

The company is now cheap, giving the company the first rating to buy, with a target price of 10.85 yuan.

Due to the reduction of cotton production and tight supply, we expect cotton and viscose staple prices to remain high for a long time.

The cost of bamboo fiber is stable and the price is based on viscose staple fiber. In the end product market, bamboo fiber products are generally twice as high as pure cotton products. We believe that bamboo fiber is the most profitable product with high viscose price.

The company intends to expand its capacity. We expect that the production capacity of bamboo fiber and bamboo pulp will be 80 thousand tons / year and 130 thousand tons / year after the expansion.

The risk of substantial fluctuations in the price of raw materials; the risk of large fluctuations in downstream demand.

Assuming that the addition can be completed, we expect the earnings per share of 2010-2012 years to be -0.13 yuan, 0.43 yuan and 0.54 yuan respectively. Considering that the company is the most profitable company in the high price operation of viscose, we give 25 times the price earnings ratio in 2011 and the target price is 10.85 yuan for the first time.

(Ni Xiaoman of Central Bank of China)

Anoits its [2.40% Fund Research Report] (300067): huge space for Industry Development

The first three quarters achieved earnings per share of 0.22 yuan.

In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 140 million yuan, an increase of 5.09% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the parent company owners was 21 million 290 thousand yuan, down 26.44% compared with the same period last year. The company achieved EPS0.22 yuan in the first three quarters, down 38% compared to the same period last year.

Due to factors such as market development, gross margins of products declined.

In the first three quarters of this year, the sales volume of the company increased by 870 tons over the same period last year, and the gross margin of sales was 38.18%, which was 2.18 percentage points lower than that of this year's report. The main reasons are: 1, the price of dye raw materials is rising, such as aniline products in the East China market, which has been on the rise since April this year, and the price increase has reached 23%.

The cost of the period increased rapidly.

The cost ratio of the first three quarters of the company was 20.41%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points over the middle of this year.

The main reasons for the increase in the period are as follows: sales expenses increased by 3 million 10 thousand yuan over the same period, an increase of 34.16%, mainly for the growth of freight and personnel costs. The management fees increased by 4 million 520 thousand yuan, an increase of 32.09%, mainly in terms of R & D expenses and changes in corporate social security.

5500 tons of cake project has begun trial production.

The company's investment projects include 5500 tons of cake projects and 6000 tons of disperse dyes.

At present, the 5500 ton cake project has begun trial production, and the economic benefit in the three quarter has been 830 thousand yuan.

The two projects will be put into operation in March and December of next year respectively.

Earnings forecast: earnings per share are 0.31 yuan this year.

It is estimated that the earnings per share of the company in the next 2010-2012 years will be 0.31 yuan, 0.57 yuan and 0.85 yuan respectively.

(Hongyuan securities, Kang Tieniu)

Xinmin Technology (002127): ultra fine FDY boom has entered leapfrog growth.

Main points of investment: polyester filament is in short supply, and the industry boom is continuously improving.

The demand for differential polyester in the domestic market accounts for more than 30% of the total polyester production, and it is estimated that 2013 will exceed 40%.

The existing domestic production can not meet the market demand for FDY, and the polyester filament market is in short supply.

In addition, domestic production equipment has entered the elimination cycle, while the global winding equipment has limited manufacturing capacity, limiting the rapid expansion of polyester filament production capacity.

Under this background, the company will develop the ultra fine FDY with the existing capital platform, and its future performance will grow rapidly.

The strategic pformation of enterprises has resulted in a substantial increase in per capita output value.

The company is gradually shifting from the traditional labor intensive silk manufacturing industry to the capital and technology intensive polyester fiber chemical industry.

The pformation of the company has resulted in a substantial increase in capital yield and per capita output value.

The input and output of fine denier yarn (20D ~ 50D) has been greatly improved compared with traditional product structure, and the industry boom has also been rising.

In addition, silk and silk like fabrics are targets of "multi variety, small batch and differential", and the gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 17% to 18%.

Private placement has led the company into a period of rapid development.

The company's non-public issuance has been successfully implemented in July. In July 28th, it issued a non-public offering issuance report and a public announcement. The total amount of raising 430 million yuan, after deducting the issuance cost, is used for the first phase of the construction project of the annual output of 200 thousand tons of differential fiber polyester filament production line.

After the completion of the project, it is expected that the company will enter a period of rapid development in 2011, and its total business revenue is expected to double, reaching 25~30 billion yuan.

The cost of differential fiber polyester filament decreases and prices rise.

With the gradual increase of domestic demand, polyester filament yarn is becoming more and more popular.

Volume and price have risen sharply.

From the perspective of raw material price fluctuation, considering the impact of the economic slowdown on the decline of crude oil prices, it is estimated that the controllable production cost in 2011 will drop by nearly 300 yuan per ton, and the gross profit margin will rise to more than 17%.

Follow up investment projects.

The implementation of the project's annual output of 30000 tons of solvent based cellulose fiber project will continue to promote growth.

Earnings forecasts and valuations.

With the improvement of the industry boom and the implementation of the 200 thousand ton polyester filament project and the implementation of the 30000 ton solvent fiber cellulose project in the future, the company is expected to enter the golden age of rapid development, and the compound growth rate of the main revenue in the future will remain above 30%.

EPS is expected to be 0.30 yuan, 0.65 yuan and 0.75 yuan per share for 2010~2012 years, corresponding to 28.13 times, 12.98 times and 11.25 times price earnings ratio, respectively, giving a "buy" rating.

(Soochow securities Zhu Dan)

Jiangnan high fiber (600527): small fiber large market target price of 10 yuan

Key points of supporting rating

We measured the demand for sanitary napkins and diapers and found that diapers and adult incontinence in the next five years will be the key to the demand pull of ES fiber. We expect that the demand for ES fiber will increase by 200 thousand tons in the next five years.

The market share of the polyester wool top is over 60%, and has a strong market pricing power. The gross profit margin of the product has been maintained at over 30% since 2007.

At present, the technical pformation of hollow ball polyester top is being actively carried out.

4080 fiber is widely used in hard cotton and other fields.

Up to 30%, the company is now in the stage of technology accumulation.

Major risks facing rating

The risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices and the risk of large fluctuations in downstream demand.

We expect the company's earnings per share for 2010-2012 years to be 0.41 yuan, 0.55 yuan and 0.73 yuan respectively. Considering the leading position of the company and the growth rate of net profit in the next three years, it is expected to exceed 30%. We gave a 25 times earnings per share in 2010 and a target price of 10.15 yuan, the first time to buy a rating.

(BOC International Ni Xiaoman)

Hualian Holdings (000036): annual performance is high, cautious and overweight.

Due to the reasons for settlement, the first half performance has dropped sharply, and the annual performance has a higher certainty.

In the first half of this year, the A Times Building of UDC Times Building was sold in Hangzhou, with a total contract amount of more than 1 billion yuan. The project is expected to carry income in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The company's capital is in good condition.

During the reporting period, the net cash flow generated by the company's business activities was 760 million yuan, an increase of 38.26% over the same period last year.

The monetary fund is 1 billion 646 million yuan, and the debt ratio after deducting the pre payment is only 29.6%.

The company acquired low-cost land through equity acquisition and old reform.

In the first half of the year, they won the three phase of Hualian City mountain forest and the "Peninsula town" project of Qiandao Lake Bay in Jinxian.

The company's declared "Baoan District original Huizhong factory area" demolition and reconstruction project has been approved.

After 2011, the company will launch several properties.

Including: Hangzhou UDC Times Square, B Tung, "UDC Qian Tang hall", "UDC panoramic world", "cloud hung mansion", "Peninsula town" and other projects.

The demolition and reconstruction projects include "Baoan District original Huizhong factory area", Shenzhen Hua Daxin real estate factory and Nanshan Hualian Industrial Park.

A, B and so on.

Give a cautious increase in ratings.

The company's profit forecast is temporarily not adjusted: EPS in 2010 was 0.32 yuan, and EPS in 2011 was 0.50 yuan, corresponding to PE was 16 times and 10 times respectively.

The land reserve cost of the company is relatively low, and the future profit space of the project is relatively large, but the valuation is slightly higher than the average level of the industry, and the downgrade is "cautious increase".

Risk warning: due to reduced sales next year, performance may be lower than expected.

(WAN Lian securities Huang Peng)

Shenyang chemical industry (000698): high growth, strong entry and strong cyclical nature

The company's main business has four parts: first, the production of PVC paste resin based chlor alkali chemical [8.64% fund research and business; two is the DCC refining unit, which mainly produces gasoline, diesel and propylene; three is the production of acrylic acid and ester and propylene oxide from self propene, and four is the newly produced CPP device, which mainly produces ethylene and propylene.

The CPP project provides flexibility in the petrochemical boom cycle.

Under the current product price, the CPP project can provide roughly 10 million pre tax profits a month.

DCC provides a more stable profit.

Since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism for oil products in early 2009, the domestic refining industry has seen a turning point. In the first half of the year, the DCC device contributed nearly one hundred million of the pre tax profit, which is the main source of profit for the company.

It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in the 2009-2011 years are 0.19, 0.43 and 0.63 yuan respectively. Although the valuation is not cheap, it has a higher growth and a high resilience to the petrochemical cycle, giving the "prudent recommendation -A" rating.

(China Merchants Securities)

Jiangshan chemical industry (002061): rapid expansion of capacity

In 2009, the company realized total revenue of 1 billion 184 million yuan, an increase of 1.98% over the same period last year, and realized net profit of 65 million 400 thousand yuan, a sharp increase of 127 million 790 thousand yuan compared with the same period last year.

Earnings per share were 0.5 yuan in 2009.

Jiangshan chemical industry currently has 180 thousand tons of DMF, 40 thousand tons of DMAC, 10 thousand tons of epoxy resin, 110 thousand tons of methylamine plant capacity.

The first phase construction of Inner Mongolia Yuan Xing Jiangshan chemical industry has been completed. After commissioning and commissioning, the company will add 50 thousand tons of DMF interest and capacity, and the DMAC capacity of the company will also increase to 60 thousand tons.

The main application areas of DMF are PU Leather Size and electronic clad laminate. These two fields will benefit from the revival of export, and are also important areas of domestic consumption. The demand growth is more clear. At the same time, DMF has obvious overcapacity. However, at present, the company and Hua Lu Heng Sheng [-0.16% fund research report form the first tier of world DMF production, which occupy 50% of the world's market share and 70% of the domestic market. The two formed a very obvious oligopolistic advantage. Moreover, Jiangshan chemical industry itself has new DMF production capacity, and the proportion of the company's market share is expected to increase from 30% to 35%.

DMAC products are mainly used for spandex production. The rapid expansion of spandex demand is the driving force for the expansion of DMAC capacity of the company, and the application field of DMAC is developing in high purity direction.

At present, the company occupies more than 50% of the market share of DMAC, is a well deserved industry leader, and has strong industry dominance.

At present, DMF already exists in fact the price alliance; in addition, Jiangshan chemical company Inner Mongolia Jiangshan Yuan Xing company is closer to coal and methanol resources, accounting for less than 1000 yuan in cost than in the eastern region, and more importantly, the main raw materials such as methanol and other products are rushing under the low price products of overseas gas, the price rising rate is lower than DMF, so we believe that the next DMF profit level will be maintained at a reasonable interval of at least a year and a half.

DMAC's product price is a benchmark, and the spandex industry's high degree of vitality supports the high margin of DMAC products. Besides, the company's expansion of high-purity products will also bring higher profit margins. Once again, the expansion of the company's capacity will bring about the scale effect. Therefore, we believe that the gross margin of DMAC products will last at least this year or even exceed that of 2009.

The NMP project extended to the downstream of the company's industrial chain is once again denied. It shows that the relocation of the old factory area in Jiangshan City is imminent. The total area of the project is 330 mu, and the relocation price should be no less than 2 million 300 thousand / mu according to the price of the local land.

Without considering the epoxy resin and relocation compensation, we expect the company to make 2010-2012, 0.65, 0.86, and 0.90 yuan earnings per share, giving a "buy" rating at a 22-25 times valuation level, with a target price of 16.58-18.85 yuan.

(Shanxi securities Zhang Xu)

Cangzhou Pearl (002108): thin film pipes, flying in pairs

The pipeline business is complete and will continue to benefit from infrastructure construction.

The company's PE business has the most complete supporting capabilities in the industry (including pipes, fittings and ball valves), and will continue to benefit from urbanization, new rural construction and west east gas pipeline construction in the future.

The production of tubing and fittings is expected to be 46 thousand tons this year, and the Wuhu project will be fully produced next year, with a total capacity of 51 thousand tons.

In the future, it is still possible for the company to build factories in other places through acquisitions or other ways to expand the scale of production and marketing.

BOPA film production capacity is growing rapidly, and synchronous stretch technology is the world leader.

At present, the demand for BOPA film in China is 50 thousand tons, and the growth rate will remain at about 15% in the next 5 years.

In view of the unique technological advantages and excellent product performance of the synchronous stretch BOPA film, the company will take the lead and fully benefit from the growth of demand in this field.

In the first half of the year, the company launched BOPA project, which has been put into operation in the first half of the year. The annual output will reach 3000 tons, and next year it will reach 4500 tons. With the existing production line, the company will achieve 7500 tons of BOPA production this year, and the asynchronous method can reach 6000 tons. In 2011, the synchronous method and asynchronous method can reach about 9000 tons.

March into the field of power battery separator.

The company has invested in lithium battery separator research. The research work has lasted for about a year, and the company will continue to invest in this area.

In view of the strong technological innovation capability and the relationship between diaphragm and thin film, we think the company is expected to succeed in the field of BOPA.

Earnings forecasts and ratings.

We estimate that EPS in 10, 11, and 12 years is 0.71, 0.92 and 1.14, respectively.

Referring to the valuation of similar companies in plastic pipe industry, we gave the company 11 times 30 times price earnings ratio and target price 27.6, and for the first time, we bought a "buy" rating.

(East China Sea Securities Wu Wenzhao)

Jin Zhengda (002470): the key to performance release lies in market promotion.

Maintain our forecast for earnings: the company's three quarterly report shows that net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2010 is up 35-45%.

We forecast the value of the company's IPO pricing by 36.3%, maintaining the company's profit forecast before the company's forecast.

We expect the company's EPS for 2010-2012 years to be 0.42 yuan, 0.63 yuan and 0.82 yuan respectively.

According to the latest stock price of 21.25 yuan, corresponding PE is 51, 34 and 26 times, the company has no valuation advantage, giving the company "neutral" rating.

(China Post securities Shao Minghui)

Rubber industry (300041): fast growth is still strong.

R & D investment has increased and competitiveness has been further enhanced.

In 1-9 months, the company invested 15 million 890 thousand yuan in total R & D, accounting for 5.53% of sales revenue, an increase of 73.9% over the same period last year.

Through constantly deepening the research competition mechanism, the company has strengthened the research and development of supporting products for the main engine factory in the field of automobile manufacturing, new energy, electronic and electrical appliances. At the same time, the company has established an application research lab to provide customers with menu service and system solutions, and to strengthen the convergence of technology and market. Many products have begun to enter the benchmarking customers in the industry for trial or bulk ordering, and their competitiveness has been further improved.

New projects will be promoted in an orderly way.

During the reporting period, the company's two investment projects have been progressing smoothly, and have been partially put into operation (accumulative total investment of 156 million yuan, yielding an efficiency of about 5 million 650 thousand yuan). The future will gradually reach the production level. The over raising fund polyurethane project (to invest 65 million yuan) has invested a total of 10 million 760 thousand yuan, and the infrastructure construction is expected to be completed by the end of this year.

Maintain "recommended" rating.

The market for engineering adhesives is vast (it is expected to exceed US $10 billion by 2015, the annual compound growth rate is over 10%), and the high-end composite products (for electronics and electrical appliances, precision instruments and meters, automobiles, new energy sources, high-speed railways, aerospace and other industries) will have an annual compound growth rate of over 20%.

With the gradual shift of the global adhesive center, excellent domestic enterprises, represented by the rubber industry, will continue to develop rapidly.

Combined with the business progress reflected in the three quarterly report, we raised the company's 2010-2012 year EPS forecast to 1.37, 2.03, and 2.82 yuan (up 5.4%, 6.8%, 7.6% respectively) compared with the original forecast, and maintained "recommended" investment rating.