The Golden Week Really Brought Gold To A Shares.

The latest economic data show that the macro economy is still in the doldrums, CPI is only 1.6%, lower than expected, while PPI is negative 5.9%, higher than expected. What does it mean? Deflation! As mentioned earlier, liquidity is no problem, monetary policy easing is also limited to the economic stimulus, which is a phased feature of the upgrading stage, the deleveraging debt will be lost, the capacity companies will go bankrupt, and the two best ways are hard to find. GDP in such a background, it is normal for the growth rate to bottom out, can the capital market hedge? If it can, it will also be reflected in increasing the proportion of direct financing and reducing bank pressure, which is not in line with the short-term interests of investors in the two tier market, but it is in line with national interests. Therefore, there is another meaning to restore market normal, that is, financing, IPO, note book system, the starting point and foothold of national cattle are actually here, rather than the index level.

Now or never, time waits for no man.

One of the best interests of the world is golden week. capital market Continuous rebound, the more exaggerated is that the Dow continuously pulled out seven even Yang, which did not appear in the early bull market; the Hang Seng index rebounded to a height of about 10%; while Glencore's share price also had a rebound of more than 30%, to a certain extent, to defuse the risk of commodity futures collapse to Lehman second. Some people jokingly attribute these external factors to the discontinuation of A shares. Precisely because A shares are not traded, the market is less hurt. Jokes are joking, but sentiment is indeed reversing. There is a popular saying in the market. One line changes the mood, the two lines change the view. The three line changes the belief. What is the seven line?

Two of the time, the right place and the right people. After all, the short-term adjustment of A shares is too large, and the current position is not enough. So far, the government's rescue measures are also playing a role. The central bank governor, the finance minister and the general secretary of the premier are all responding to the concerns of the A shares. The national team's rally to the index stocks has come to an end. The market has entered the stage of self repair and self operation, and the main force is also helping itself. The most important thing is that the latest wave of slump, from 4000 points down 2850 points, is a rapid and immeasurable empty fall. Between 2850 and 3450 points, there is basically no pressure to relieve the market. As long as there is no panic, A shares will give the sun some sunshine and flood. By the end of the year, there will be too many organizations to catch up with the market before they rush to catch up. The market will really recover and the rescue measures will be completely withdrawn. external environment Do you?

The three is the timely introduction of the central bank. credit The pilot project of asset pledge refinancing was expanded. The pilot projects in Shandong and Guangdong have been expanded to nine cities. This is an attempt by the central bank to strengthen credit guidance. The significance of the total increase is not large, but it has been interpreted as the Chinese version of QE. 更有人翻出當(dāng)時(shí)央行取消存貸比時(shí)的舊賬，提出了央行信貸規(guī)模可以增加7萬億的說法，而這種荒謬的算法是取自存款保證金率18%和信貸比75%的倒數(shù)25%的差，即7%乘上存款100萬億的結(jié)果，這基本上就是意淫，但是市場(chǎng)對(duì)此寧信其有不信其無，因?yàn)槠溆芯鸵馕吨鲃?dòng)性增加，就意味著水漲船高，就意味著估值上升，盡管即便如此解讀的人也明白這是飲鳩止渴，但又有幾個(gè)人不是活在當(dāng)下，長(zhǎng)期的災(zāi)難后果又與我何關(guān)?事實(shí)上，中國(guó)現(xiàn)在不缺流動(dòng)性，央行剛剛完成的逆回購(gòu)就是證明，銀行更沒有流動(dòng)性的壓力;相反，現(xiàn)在主要的問題一是放貸的困難，二是缺少可以放貸的標(biāo)的，而這正是中國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的真實(shí)寫照，市場(chǎng)不缺錢，缺的是好項(xiàng)目，能掙錢的好項(xiàng)目，所以中國(guó)版QE真的是無稽之談。

Obscurity is actually enough.