China'S "Three Low" Era And Its Impact On The Stock Market

In today's world, the most economically developed countries and regions mainly refer to the United States, Europe and Japan.

Compared with the developed countries or underdeveloped countries, the economies of these countries and regions are characterized by large economies and "three low" phenomena, namely, low interest rates, low growth and low prices.

The central bank's base interest rates are between zero and 1, and the average interest rate of commercial banks is around 2%. The rate of economic growth in the United States is the highest of 2%, while in Europe and Japan it is 1%.

Although developed countries have low interest rates and wide monetary policy in recent years, prices remain stable and low prices remain unchanged for many years.

Today, China is still called by most people.

However, China's "three low" phenomenon has gradually emerged.

Mark one of the reserve currencies of the most developed countries. (SDR) the special drawing rights will enter into a new stage and a new era to the world regardless of whether or not it can enter this year.

This new stage must not be judged by two words: good or bad.

We need to understand, adapt to and grasp the arrival of China's "three low" era, and judge the long-term impact on the stock market, so as to guide our investment decisions and stock selection ideas.

The "three low" era of the economy has a great impact on the stock market.

First, the concept of price earnings ratio of 20 times the value of stocks has been out of date for many years.

In the first 20 years, the market used the 20 times price earnings ratio as the issuing price to refer to the valuation. The value line is based on the one-year deposit interest rate stipulated by the people's Bank of China in the range of 5%.

The price earnings ratio corresponding to the interest rate is 20 times earnings per standard.

Now and in the future, the people's Bank of China

It is generally not possible to recover to more than 5%.

The 20 fold price earnings ratio demarcation line of the corresponding stock must be broken.

In countries where interest rates are zero or 1,

The value standard of P / E is bound to increase accordingly.

Gem and motherboard high price earnings ratio stocks, as long as growth and subject matter is guaranteed, can not be equal to the bubble; second, the valuation of the stock market, traditional industries and emerging industries, general manufacturing and new manufacturing industries, general technology and high technology, the absolute valuation of equipment assets and light equipment assets are different.

The latter reflects the development direction of the third industry service industry after pformation, and has the vitality of development space. The stock of traditional cyclical industry is obviously different from the new era in terms of imagination space.

The concept of stock selection must adapt to the new era.

Why is price wide stable? Because most goods that can be manufactured by technology and equipment will have excess capacity and oversupply.

Except for a few commodities restricted by land resources such as agricultural products, the price of most commodities is relatively stable for a long time.

When the scale of China's manufacturing industry, major commodity production, import and export volume reached the world's first place, GDP ranked second in the world, and the rate of economic growth must decline year by year.

Of course, the absolute amount of economic expansion is decreasing relative quantity.

At the same time, it must be accompanied by low interest rates and low prices.

Because prices can not continue to rise sharply, the annual rate of decline is decreasing, and other price increases will follow.